The case for every top-nine AFL team to win the 2025 premiership
Just over a month out from September, the premiership race looks wide open. There’s nine teams in the hunt and Mick McGuane has made the premiership case for every single one.
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It looks to be an open premiership race just a month out from September. We asked AFL analyst Mick McGuane to mount a case why each current top-nine side is capable of holding the premiership cup aloft this year.
COLLINGWOOD
The Magpies remain my No. 1 seed in this year’s premiership race, with the MCG factor a big part of that.
A top-two finish could mean Collingwood doesn’t leave the home of football this September and Craig McRae’s side has a 9-2 record there this season, its two losses coming by a combined margin of four points.
But the venue isn’t the only reason why Collingwood can win it.
Defence wins premierships and the Magpies have been the hardest team to score against this season on the back of their pressure, tackling and dynamic ball movement which underpins their performance.
Collingwood players bring a ruthless approach to winning the ball back – and they punish their opposition by moving the ball at speed on turnover when they do.
The side’s diverse forward line can kick a winning score, but the ability of players like Lachie Schultz, Beau McCreery, Bobby Hill and Jamie Elliott to quickly snap into defensive transition is almost unrivalled.
That allows Collingwood’s defenders to press up and squeeze the ground, with Darcy Moore, Jeremy Howe, Isaac Quaynor and Brayden Maynard capable of generating ample midfield intercepts and helping to lock the ball in their side’s forward half.
Off halfback, Josh Daicos and Dan Houston need to be given the ball to kickstart the Magpies’ ball movement from defence.
If they can then get it in the hands of the little genius, Nick Daicos, through the midfield, he can cause serious damage centre-forward.
The other thing that counts in September is experience and Collingwood has plenty of that between players like Scott Pendlebury, Steele Sidebottom, Jamie Elliott, Darcy Moore and Brody Mihocek.
Those veterans can have a calming influence on the group when the pressure is at its highest.
ADELAIDE
The Crows are coming with a rocket in premiership calculations and have a game that stacks up for finals.
Contest and pressure? Tick. Strong defence? Tick. Punish opposition on turnover? Tick.
Adelaide ranks No. 1 for post-clearance contested possessions and put its ability to lay effective tackles on display last weekend as it tackled Port Adelaide into submission in the Showdown.
The Crows put a high premium on that defensive intent, which is led by captain Jordan Dawson who has averaged an elite 7.1 tackle a game this season.
The full-ground assault on opposition sides has contributed to Adelaide ranking No. 2 defensively for scores against, along with the fact Matthew Nicks’ team sets up the ground extremely well and generates intercepts.
When they do win the footy back, the Crows have a go-forward mentality towards an attack which is efficient and full of weapons.
Between them, Riley Thilthorpe, Darcy Fogarty and Taylor Walker have combined for 110 goals this season, while Ben Keays (31 goals) is playing a significant role as a defensive forward at times but knows how to score.
Izak Rankine is an X-factor player, as is Josh Rachele (knee) who has been cleared to return to training in a positive sign in his recovery.
History says you have to be a top-six team for points from turnovers to win the premiership and the Crows are outscoring their opposition from turnovers by 24.3 points per game – the fifth-best result of any side in the past 15 years.
A top-two finish could mean two games at Adelaide Oval – where the Crows hold a 10-1 record this year – and be the ticket to the MCG for that last Saturday in September.
BRISBANE LIONS
The Lions lifted the 2024 premiership cup, so why couldn’t they defend their crown and do it again?
As much as they haven’t been as consistent as they would like in some areas of their game this year, Chris Fagan’s side hasn’t lost their DNA of contest, clearance and territory.
The strong midfield group of Lachie Neale, Hugh McCluggage and Josh Dunkley have helped the side rank top-six for both clearance differential and inside-50 differential this year.
And Brisbane’s slick ball movement from the back half continues to trouble opposition sides.
While Gold Coast took away that strength in last week’s loss, Dayne Zorko, Darcy Wilmot and Jasper Fletcher have had big years and will be tough to contain again.
Those counter-attack defenders who pull the trigger with daring kicks through the corridor can break open games and are a key reason why the Lions rank No. 1 for moving the ball from defensive half to their forward 50.
In that attack are players who are made for September, like Cam Rayner, Zac Bailey, Charlie Cameron.
Plus there’s Kai Lohmann, who kicked four goals in last year’s grand final and is eyeing a return from a calf injury before finals.
Joe Daniher isn’t there this year, but Brisbane has still got Eric Hipwood and an evolving Logan Morris to make a contest in the air in front of the ball.
This side’s other big strength is it has different modes it can activate within games.
The Lions can control the ball and defend with the footy through kick-mark if things aren’t going their way and they need to slow the tempo of the game.
GEELONG
Another top-four finish looms for the Cats and this is a club which has proven itself in September, having won the premiership in 2022.
Some personnel has changed since then and there have been tweaks to the game plan, but like they were in that premiership campaign this side remains hard to score against and can pile on scores of its own in attack.
Geelong ranks No. 2 for scores for this season at 102.5 points a game and No. 4 for scores against at 76.4 points per game.
When you are putting up numbers like that, you have to be taken seriously.
The scoring power in front of the ball is clearly headed by Jeremy Cameron, who has already kicked 69 majors and could reach 100 by year’s end.
However, the small forwards including Shaun Mannagh, Gryan Miers, Brad Close and Tyson Stengle – plus the other marking target in Shannon Neale – are also playing key roles.
And let’s not forget captain courageous Patrick Dangerfield.
If there is a ball to be won when it counts, Danger is the man.
The Cats’ forward group is as selfless as any.
They understand the space that’s available and make use of it, working for each other to regularly allow teammates to get on the end of easy goals.
That’s one reason why this side is so efficient with its scoring once inside 50, but another factor is the tackling pressure these forwards apply.
Geelong ranks No. 1 for forward-50 tackles, locking the ball in and allowing the defence to press up the ground.
Sam De Koning’s return from injury over the past fortnight has been important and he complements fellow defenders Jack Henry and Tom Stewart well.
Transition runners Max Holmes and Bailey Smith have had outstanding years and throw up challenges for opposition sides with their accumulation of the footy and run and carry to penetrate the game.
The Cats rank No. 2 for defensive 50 to forward 50 ball movement.
Add in some clever management of players in recent months and Geelong is building beautifully for finals – again.
HAWTHORN
A lot of ladder predictors have Hawthorn missing the top-eight.
But if the Hawks get there they’ll deserve it and believe they are capable of beating anyone.
That’s because they are likely to need at least one big scalp in the run home – among at least two wins in total – as they eye matches against Adelaide, Collingwood, Melbourne and the Brisbane Lions.
Hawthorn built a head of steam at the end of last year, though, and will back themselves to do so again.
After a slow start to the year, the Hawks have won six of their past seven games and the recent returns of Will Day, Calsher Dear and Mitch Lewis have been timely.
Jack Gunston and Mabior Chol were left to carry the can in the forward half without Dear and Lewis, but with all four key forwards now available it could be worth having a look at.
What we do know is that the Hawks have had a good balance in their game this year, being efficient at scoring once inside-50 and effective at stopping the opposition from scoring at the other end.
The Hawks rank No. 3 for points against from turnovers, helped by the additions of recruits Tom Barrass and Josh Battle.
Captain James Sicily’s return to form over the past six weeks has also been key and he looks to have got his fitness and confidence back.
While parts of Hawthorn’s game have been clunky and inconsistent this season, their pressure has been a constant.
Sam Mitchell’s is the No. 1 pressure side in the AFL this year and September is all about pressure so that bodes well if they do make the cut.
The Western Bulldogs showed in 2016 you don’t need to finish top-four to win a premiership.
You just need to bring your absolute best for one month after you qualify.
GWS GIANTS
The Giants haven’t been at their best for a lot of this year.
But as finals approach, this team is gearing up and evolving before our eyes.
Since round 14, the GWS midfield has got going and has been the No. 1 team for generating a score from its clearance wins.
Xavier O’Halloran and the returning Stephen Coniglio have been added back into that midfield group, with Toby Bedford being spat out.
But Bedford can still be an ace up Adam Kingsley’s sleeve come finals, with his ability to nullify the opposition’s best midfielder like a Nick Daicos at Collingwood.
The running power of the Giants’ halfback line and midfield is hard to stop with the likes of Finn Callaghan, Lachie Ash and Lachie Whitfield.
On a warm and dry day in September, you can just imagine what sort of impact that trio could have.
Behind the ball, GWS ranks third for scores per inside-50 against.
Sam Taylor made a welcome return from injury last week and the Giants will hope that fellow key defender Jack Buckley can recover from a calf injury before finals.
Having those two players on the park allows Connor Idun to excel on a medium-sized hybrid forward, rather than having to play taller.
In attack, GWS also has an ability to score once the ball goes inside their forward 50, through key targets in Jesse Hogan and Aaron Cadman, along with Toby Greene and Jake Stringer.
Stringer is the No. 3 rated player in the league over the past six rounds, during which he has averaged 6.8 score involvements and 2.6 goals per game.
If lively pressure forward Brent Daniels can recover from an adductor injury in time for September that would be a bonus.
FREMANTLE
There was hysteria less than four weeks ago when the Dockers suffered an 11-point loss to Sydney at the SCG.
But the fact is they had won six in a row before that match and have won three since – leaving Justin Longmuir’s side as one of the form teams of the competition with nine wins from their last 10 outings.
There are clearly plenty of doubters, but I suspect the Dockers are feeding off the fact that the outside world might not rate them – and that can be powerful. Nothing better than the us versus them mentality.
Fremantle has a young list but a good one which can challenge opponents in all phases of the game.
The Dockers rank top-six for average points against at 77.1 per game.
They protect their own turnovers well and their ball movement is better than you might think, with a halfback-to-score ranking of fifth.
The onball group is as balanced as you could possibly hope for.
Caleb Serong is the inside extractor who wins first possession of the hands of ruckmen Sean Darcy and Luke Jackson, Andrew Brayshaw is the transition runner who works up and back and brings defensive intent and Hayden Young is the midfielder-forward whose kicking leg is a weapon going inside-50 to targets like Josh Treacy, Jy Amiss and Jackson.
Young has shown just how important he is to this side since returning a fortnight ago, but he’s not the only high-impact player in the forward half.
Shai Bolton is a point of difference who had September experience at Richmond, while Jackson played his role for Melbourne in the Demons’ premiership in 2021.
I’m also a huge fan of Murphy Reid, an emerging talent who is playing beyond his years and has great composure, footy IQ and decision making skills.
Rest assured, September won’t phase him at all.
GOLD COAST
The Suns have an understated weapon.
His name is Jarrod Witts and he’s averaged more hit-outs – and more hit-outs to advantage – than any other ruckman this year.
The 32-year-old veteran is giving first use of the footy to a magnificent midfield brigade led by Noah Anderson, Matthew Rowell, Touk Miller and Bailey Humphrey.
As a result, the Suns rank No. 1 in both clearances and inside-50s this season, along with No. 3 for points from clearances which is a point-of-difference to some of the other top sides.
Gold Coast hasn’t played finals before, but possesses players who are built for the pointy end of the season.
Rowell rewrote record books last week as he became the first player in history to record 15 clearances, 10 score involvements and 10 tackles last week, which shows how well he is going.
The evolution of Humphrey has also been a major positive and he looks to be a player who will thrive on the big stage.
That midfield group is providing ample supply to the forwards, which has helped Ben King (47 goals) and Ben Long (32 goals) produce the seasons they have.
Like Richmond did under Damien Hardwick, the Suns want to lock the footy in their forward half and their strong pressure game, which ranks No. 3, helps them do that.
Gold Coast has beaten each of the current top-three teams this year in Collingwood, Adelaide and Brisbane.
That should provide them with great optimism that they could pull off something special this September.
If they can bank wins in the run home and finish top-four, those hopes will only rise.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
The Bulldogs’ inability to beat the top-nine sides this season has been widely noted.
They’re 1-8 against their fellow finals aspirants.
But if you dig a little deeper, six of those losses have come by 14 points or less.
So, Luke Beveridge’s side hasn’t been as far off the mark as it might seem.
The defence has been an issue this year, but the Dogs are doing a lot right in other areas of their game.
They are a high-volume team who average 377 disposals and when you have that much of the footy the opposition has to find a way to get it back off you.
A powerful midfield group headlined by Tim English, Marcus Bontempelli, Tom Liberatore and Ed Richards has also ranked No. 1 for clearance differential this season, which is another way to get the game on your terms.
They are driving the ball forward to an efficient attack which boasts the dual threats of Aaron Naughton and Sam Darcy.
Since Darcy’s return from injury seven weeks ago, he has booted 24 goals and Naughton has kicked 26.
The Bulldogs have a 5-2 record over that period and there’s no doubt that duo will continue to evolve with the more they play together.
Plus, big blokes who can take a contested mark and kick a goal are worth their weight in gold in finals.
Overall, the Bulldogs have averaged 107 points per game this season, while their ball movement has been another key strength and a contributing factor in that.
Beveridge’s side ranks No. 1 for moving the ball from its defensive 50 to forward 50, in big part thanks to Bailey Dale’s drive off halfback.
If they make finals, they’ll be an underdog.
But they were that in 2016 as well – and look what happened then.
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