The 10 reasons Geelong is better placed to beat Richmond – and the why the Tigers will still back themselves in
Geelong is the in-form favourite heading into Friday night’s huge game against Richmond – but there is one reason why the Tigers will still fancy their chances of beating the Cats. SEE THE LIST
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The epitaph was already being penned for the current Geelong list in the hours after its disastrous second-half fade out in last September’s preliminary final.
Tim Kelly was on the way out, Gary Ablett and Harry Taylor were contemplating retirement and Geelong’s ruck crisis was showing no sign of abating.
With Richmond a rising AFL superpower, had Geelong just blown its last chance at silverware before a list revamp?
On Friday, the Cats will face off against Richmond 10 days short of 12 months on from that humbling experience, and they couldn’t be better placed to turn the tables.
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In that 40-point second-half turnaround – 21 points up to 19 points down – the Cats went to water.
To start the third term, Dion Prestia burst from the centre square to hit Tom Lynch, and within 56 seconds the entire complexion of the game had changed.
His goal was followed by another Lynch behind minutes later, then Dustin Martin’s major, followed by goals to Jason Castagna, Lynch again, and then Prestia’s first at the 27-minute-mark of the third term.
Geelong’s single score was a Gryan Miers behind in that time, and Richmond never looked back from that 10-point lead.
It was an avalanche.
So why is Geelong so impeccably placed to turn the tables this time around, let alone continue its charge next year with three first-round picks in December’s draft?
1. Tom Hawkins is back
He missed the preliminary final last year with yet another striking suspension, which forced Chris Scott to throw Lachie Henderson forward. Henderson finished with no impact after five touches and a goal.
Hawkins is off-the-charts good this year (ranking elite for ranking points, disposals, forward-50 marks, score involvements and goals).
But it’s his ability to scrounge a goal against the play that is as important as beating up on teams like Essendon.
Even if Richmond wins the territory game Hardwick will know he’s a handful of touches from turning the contest.
Young star-on-the-rise Noah Balta might get him.
Hawkins has won 45 per cent of one-on-one contests (ranked No. 1 in the comp) and Balta has taken a mark in 18 per cent of his one-on-ones (ranked third of defenders). Get the popcorn ready.
2. Gary Rohan
He missed last year’s preliminary with a knee injury after a three-possession, one-goal semi-final. Given his finals record it was no game-changer.
Hopefully he takes the field after sitting out the last quarter with a tight glute, with Chris Scott describing the decision as “completely precautionary”.
This year he’s one of only three players including Tom Papley and Mitch Wallis to rate elite for forward-50 ground balls and goals.
Last year if you asked which Tiger or Cats small or medium-sized forward was the most dangerous you might have chosen three or four Tigers. Now he’s a weapon.
3. Dion Prestia isn’t out there
Last year he franked his superb finals record with a second half of sheer power. He had 106 ranking points, 15 disposals, four clearances, seven score involvements and two goals. The final goal from 40m out with five minutes on the clock from a Shai Bolton handball put the game away when Geelong was only 12 points down. He’s not there, and while Trent Cotchin is in commanding form, will it tip the balance to the in-form Geelong midfield? So much comes down to Shai Bolton and Jack Graham’s ability to step up alongside Cotchin.
4. Blitz’s new role
Geelong was so desperate last year to get midfield run, it played star full back Mark Blicavs on the wing during the finals. It smacked of desperation.
Now he’s a wildcard that is creating serious chaos playing a little bit of everywhere.
Against Essendon he played eight per cent in defence, 47 per cent as a wingman, 42 per cent in the ruck and three per cent forward. His two goals included an astonishing 65m left-foot bomb after taking the ball from the ruck. How does Damien Hardwick plan for him when he has no idea where he might play?
5. Rock-solid defence
Blicavs can only play up the field because the back six is so rock solid. Mark O’Connor, Tom Stewart, Jake Kolodjashnij are all doing their thing but Henderson has been a revelation after appearing on footy’s scrap heap.
He has kept quality opponents like Matt Taberner to a single goal, with no one really getting to him in eight straight games since his Round 8 return.
Harry Taylor hasn’t missed a beat either after Tom Lynch kicked five on him in last year’s prelim. Can Lynch repeat the dose this time around?
6. Menegola’s midfield rise
Sam Menegola has had to carry a reputation as a solid accumulator who hasn’t got it done in big games from the Geelong faithful.
This year he is pushing for All Australian. He is elite in everything that matters: ranking points, disposals, uncontested possessions, marks, clearances, score involvements and goals (14 of them). It’s an outstanding formline and no better platform to strut his stuff on the big stage.
7. Damaging Duncan
His offsider Mitch Duncan isn’t doing too badly either after missing the preliminary final last year due to injury. Champion Data classifies him as a pure midfielder rather than a wingman but regardless of his status he’s one of only two pure midfielders to rate elite for score involvements, score assists and goals. Christian Petracca is the other, so its rarefied air.
8. Don’t count Danger out
Patrick Dangerfield has that look in his eye that he won’t be denied this time around.
In the 2017 qualifying final as the Tigers marched over Geelong they harried him into a string of turnovers as he tried to right the ship. Last year playing 84 per cent midfield in the first half he had 73 ranking points, 19 disposals, five clearances and a goal. Then in the second half playing a 70-30 midfield forward mix he went missing with just eight disposals and 29 ranking points. You get the feeling he’s over the compliments and accolades and Brownlow votes. He only wants one thing – that elusive premiership – but if you want the 2020 flag you have to go through Richmond.
9. Cam Guthrie
He won’t win a premiership by himself, but his improved form is representative of the Cats’ mid-tier to make significant improvement in the absence of Tim Kelly.
His 12-touch prelim including only three possessions in the second half but this year he’s an exceptional ball-winner who can still play accountable midfield footy. Five of his last five games are over 114 ranking points and he’s an elite kick in a midfield that at times used to butcher it out of the stoppages.
10. Peaking at the right time
The Cats have the perfect blend of attack and defence, which should stack up perfectly in big games.
Last year they were seen to be so slow from defence because they were protecting a shaky back six.
They are No. 1 in attack, second behind only Collingwood in defence, and first in contested possessions, points from stoppages and goals per inside 50.
They are a long way from unbeatable, but there is no obvious chink in their armour.
BUT THE REASON WHY THE TIGERS ARE STILL A HUGE CHANCE …
Richmond was shot at halftime last year.
I remember sitting next to a deflated Fairfax Media’s Konrad Marshall in the MCG press box, who could see another year of work on his latest Richmond tome going up in smoke.
The Cats had won 39 more possessions, nine more marks, had won the inside 50 count by 13.
Yet, Richmond flick the switch like few other teams.
In that stunning second-half comeback the Tigers sucked the life out of Geelong’s controlling kick-and-mark game.
They won 18 more inside 50s, broke even in disposals, got midfield ascendancy and while the end margin was 19 points, Geelong never looked a chance in that final quarter.
Geelong had taken 56 first-half marks but as Richmond got its turnover game going it won 37 intercepts and kicked 6.6 (42) from that source in the second half.
The Cats, with just 37 second-half marks, floundered.
So, Richmond will back its system and its stars, with Tom Lynch, Jack Riewoldt, Dustin Martin and Trent Cotchin all hitting their stride at the business end of the year.
Hardwick will back in 24-gamer Balta to combat footy’s most dangerous forward, and back Richmond’s system no matter how perilous the scoreline.
And the best thing about this match-up?
We are every chance to see these teams in battle in October again, with all the chips in the middle of the table.
Originally published as The 10 reasons Geelong is better placed to beat Richmond – and the why the Tigers will still back themselves in
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