AFL Grand Final opening 20 minutes will be make-or-break for Sydney and Western Bulldogs
ROSS Lyon called it “The Blast”. Whatever name you give it, the first 20 minutes of football in every Sydney game is brutal, writes Dermott Brereton.
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ROSS Lyon last season called it “The Blast”.
Others simply describe it as the first-quarter onslaught. Whatever name you give it, the first 20 minutes of football in every Sydney Swans game is brutal.
It is a physical attack on the ball in dispute and a menacing attack on the opposition in possession of the ball. It is unconditional and if you don’t do it, you don’t play for the Swans.
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Games are won and lost against the Swans between the first bounce and quarter-time.
They are the equivalent of the Italian soccer team. Score early then clog up the opposition’s chances of scoring for the rest of the match.
The Swans blitz early goals from the centre square with the competition’s most powerful midfield. Then after quarter-time if you were to freeze your TV on any opposition entry inside forward 50, you might see 16 or even 17 Swannies inside defensive 50.
Hence the Cats’ 72 inside 50s that failed so dismally to produce a winning total.
The data is staggering.
The Swans are the No.1 team for first-quarter differential.
They are +287 point for first terms.
If the Dogs this week can again be within two goals or even a single-figure margin, at the first break, we will see one of the great Grand Finals.
Breaking it down further, in their past eight games they are +161 points in the first term.
The Swans have lost only two opening terms in that time. One of those was to the Saints at Etihad Stadium - a venue that they had only played at once previously this year, way back in Round 2.
It is fair to say that they found their feet after that slow start and eventually pushed over the Saints by 70 points.
But look deeper again, at the past four games played against other finalists - they played the Cats, Crows, Giants and Roos in four of their past five games.
The Swans have won every first quarter except one and that was a -1 result against the Giants. The Giants went on to win that game by six goals. It is the Swans’ only loss since Round 17.
GWS believed that afternoon that if they could withstand the initial brutality, they would win. And they did.
Almost three months ago, the Doggies beat Sydney by four points in a thriller.
The Swans held only a nine-point lead at quarter-time due to inaccurate kicking.
They had seven scoring shots to the Bulldogs’ three and they left them in the match.
If the Dogs this week can again be within two goals or even a single-figure margin, at the first break, we will see one of the great Grand Finals.
Sydney is just so powerful at the centre bounce when it is limited to a four-on-four contest.
Against Geelong in their opening quarter blitz that gained them a 39-point advantage, they kicked three goals directly from centre-bounce clearances — and that was with Dangerfield and Selwood in attendance. It is the long suit in their opening-quarter mastery.
If the Doggies can’t win their share of centre-bounce clearances, they will hope for a nil-all draw and cling on until the umpire calls to ball it up.
The Dogs will then flood in with extra numbers and swarm the contest.
And their structure at random stoppages is excellent.
Their structure at random stoppages is excellent ... the boys from the Kennel also tend to exit congestion better than anyone else.
The boys from the Kennel also tend to exit congestion better than anyone else. They do it with precise, clean, flamboyant handball that predominantly surges forward and ends up in the hands of an express player or good ball user.
Of course Sydney will look to stay heavily in the game and keep scoring after quarter time if the opportunity presents itself.
But the usual modus operandi is to have a “beserker” start and thereafter play safe and structured, break even at best, defensive football after the winning lead has been established early on.
Any lead of just two goals or less and the Swans can be vulnerable.
In the end, we have the best team of the season taking on the form team of the past month that is still headed on upward form curve.
If Luke Beveridge’s men can withstand the furnace-like temperature of the opening 20 minutes, it is game on.
KEEP YOUR EYE ON
1. Tom Papley to take on Jason Johannisen. Papley has shown that while he can put work and pressure into his opposing attacking backman, he is capable of kicking goals himself.
2. Marcus Bontempelli is all over this final series. The Swans don’t necessarily “run-with”, but if they do it is usually Kieran Jack or Tom Mitchell. And both those players might not be big enough to contain The Bont and his ability to get those long arms free and deliver. It might have to be Josh Kennedy and The Bont head to head.
3. No matter how you cut it up, Lance Franklin will most likely be a match-winner. When Joel Hamling runs out to play on Franklin he will be 23 years, 5 months and 22 days old. Of those 8576 days that he has been alive, the Grand Final is the single most important.
Originally published as AFL Grand Final opening 20 minutes will be make-or-break for Sydney and Western Bulldogs
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