Collingwood and Essendon have a lot riding on their result, writes Mark Robinson
ONE team is lost, the other is soft, and defeat for either Collingwood or Essendon at the MCG will mean it’s season over, writes MARK ROBINSON.
Collingwood
Don't miss out on the headlines from Collingwood. Followed categories will be added to My News.
NOT much left to be said about Nathan Buckley’s future after Geoff Walsh — who is heading the review into Buckley’s position — spoke before Collingwood’s loss to Hawthorn last weekend.
The experienced Walsh argued Buckley was a better coach this year than in any of his previous five seasons.
He’s probably right. But he also stressed that coaching, as is football, is a win-loss business.
“And I don’t think anyone, I don’t care who your are, Jock McHale wouldn’t survive too many Ls,’’ Walsh said on 3AW.
PIES PROBLEMS: THE SEVEN SINS AT COLLINGWOOD
GARY BUCKENARA: COLLINGWOOD LIST ANALYSIS
RUN HOME: WHERE WILL YOUR CLUB FINISH?
There’s discussions about everything at football clubs — list management, development, personal growth, administrative and football support, diet, preparation and recovery — but in the end it’s all about one thing.
It’s why Collingwood’s match against Essendon at the MCG on Saturday is critical.
It’s the lost Pies versus the soft Bombers and by 5pm one of those teams will be out of the finals race.
If it’s Collingwood, there will be a sense it’s all over for Buckley at the end of the season.
Unless there is drastic change in the W and L columns during the next eight weeks, the Pies will be looking for the next McHale.
If it’s the Bombers, and it’s another insipid display, then the cultural stain on this club, which is underlined by a seemingly decade-long acceptance of mediocrity, will have also enveloped the coach, John Worsfold.
It’s wrong to say Worsfold, James Hird, Mark Thompson and Matthew Knights, the four coaches at Essendon after the departure of Kevin Sheedy, simply accepted mediocrity. But outside of a season under Hird, the Bombers are generally a double-digit finisher.
They might not accept mediocrity, but they are mediocre.
Since 2005, Essendon has finished 13th, 15th, 12th, 12th, 8th, 14th, 8th, 11th, sixth (under Hird), seventh, 15th and 18th. This year it is 11th with a 6-8 record.
The Dons are powerhouse club playing powderpuff football for far too long.
Last week’s loss to the Brisbane Lions was one of their worst in recent memory, prompting Essendon great Matthew Lloyd to question the team’s mental resolve.
Their footy is pretty damned exciting, but it’s hardly football with substance.
Champion Data last week noted:
ESSENDON has a contested possession differential of -3.5 per game, ranked 13th.
BETWEEN the arcs, it has a contested possession differential of -8.1, ranked 17th, and a clearance differential of -3.6, ranked 16th.
THEY also have a centre-clearance differential of -1.4, ranked 14th.
THEY Bombers are getting smashed in the midfield, leading to an inside-50 differential of -6.9, ranked 17th.
THEY have only one midfielder who rates above average or elite for contested possessions — Brendan Goddard — but they have five midfielders who rate above average or elite for uncontested possessions.
Bad rankings there: 13th, 17th, 16th, 14th and 17th.
Essendon’s problem, like all average teams, is consistency.
Observations about the return of the suspended players not allowing the team to jell are wearing thin.
At least, that can’t be used as an excuse because excuses can become a crutch. Anyway, when Essendon beat Port Adelaide, Geelong, West Coast, Hawthorn and, on Anzac Day, Collingwood, there were no jelling issues.
The leaders have been poor. They know that. They let a bunch of kids dictate to them in the final quarter last week.
The coaching staff has to take blame as well. For example, they continue to refuse to use a tagger in the middle, despite being obliterated in that area.
Last week, Dayne Zorko had 30 disposals and kicked two goals. The week before against GWS, Zorko was tagged by Sam Reid for 42 minutes and had zero disposals. He finished with five disposals overall.
It’s time Essendon got down and dirty, stopped looking for the easy ball on the rebound, and like last week, stop thinking it has won the game already.
Where’s the killer attitude it displays one week and ignores the next? That’s not about jelling, that’s attitudinal.
Worsfold should be the hunter. He should send Goddard to Scott Pendlebury. Hunt Collingwood’s captain.
Who knows how the Magpies will respond?
The Magpies are being attacked on all sides. Paul Roos this week said their list management had been appalling.
Gary Buckenara, writing in the Herald Sun, said the list was full of C and D graders.
Also from Champion Data this week:
COLLINGWOOD ranks second for disposal differential, No.1 for uncontested possession differential and has taken the most marks and uncontested marks of any side.
IT HAS only scored a goal from 22 per cent of inside 50s, ranked 16th.
IT GAINS an average of 14.3m per disposal, the fourth lowest.
Some outstanding rankings in key elements of the game there, but where has it got them? A coach under fierce pressure and probably a fourth consecutive season of missing finals.
All the while, a review of all areas of the club is being undertaken.
Speculation has it that chief executive Gary Pert is under as much pressure as the coach.
Of course, Round 16 is not only about 15th v 11th, because Melbourne, Carlton, Richmond and St Kilda don’t really care what happens at the MCG today.
Same as Buckley, it’s about Ws and Ls for that lot.
The Tigers can further cement top a four spot if they beat St Kilda and the Saints would announce themselves as a September threat if they beat Richmond.
On Sunday, it’s the Blues v Demons, who have lost the one player — Jack Viney — who sets the tone for the footy club.
Still, no excuses because, in the end it’s about winning or losing, whether you’re Jock McHale or not.
Originally published as Collingwood and Essendon have a lot riding on their result, writes Mark Robinson
Drop the surname: The reasons why Pies would swoop on Jack
Carlton fans expected to be in the window, but are now facing the prospect of their most famous name playing for their biggest rival. Scott Gullan unpacks how it came to this.
Lions have ‘no choice’ but to improve
Lions coach Chris Fagan is hoping Brisbane’s “uncharacteristic” performance against the Suns isn’t repeated in Saturday’s battle with Collingwood.