AFL 2022 predictions for premiership, Brownlow medal, Rising Star and AFLW
Nick Daicos is the favourite to win the Rising Star in 2022. But could another young Magpie be his biggest threat? See our experts’ early AFL predictions.
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The fixture is out, youngsters have been drafted, trade period is now long gone and players are burning up the pre-season track.
With all that in mind it’s time for our AFL experts to get to work and put their knowledge to the test. Jay Clark, Scott Gullan and Glenn McFarlane have studied the form, looked at the key markets and given their exceptionally early 2022 predictions, roughie selections and the best value options.
PREMIERSHIP
Jay Clark says: Western Bulldogs. This is Aaron Naughton’s time to establish himself as a superstar of the competition. And if he can dominate ahead of the ball with his supreme marking power, the Dogs can take revenge on Melbourne.
The Dees are super-talented, but will they remain super-hungry? That is the next test for the brilliant onball group as it attempts to climb the mountain again. Fremantle to make the eight is the best roughie bet as an emerging group prepares to take a big step under Justin Longmuir.
Scott Gullan says: Western Bulldogs. Came from the clouds to be runner-up in ‘21 and will be significantly better next season. Treloar and Dunkley missed large chunks of the year while No.1 pick Jamarra Ugle-Hagan learnt plenty and will be a factor. Tall defender Tim O’Brien is a good get from the Hawks.
Challenger: Port Adelaide - Humiliated in the preliminary final which will provide Ken Hinkley with plenty of ammunition. Port’s young guns had injury issues, get them right and all the ingredients are there.
Roughie: Carlton - The old big-spike-for-new-coach theory at play here. Michael Voss will get the Blues playing a more defensive disciplined game and with a fit Charlie Curnow the forward line will be one of the scariest going around.
Glenn McFarlane says: No flags in almost six decades; two flags in two seasons.
As crazy as that sounds for delirious Melbourne fans, it is not only possible ... it’s looking more and more probable. Melbourne ($4.25) is still on the ascent and has the playing list in the sweetest of spots to win more flags in the next three to five years.
They are clearly my pick for more glory in 2022 - this time hopefully with fans back at the MCG. Superstars such as Max Gawn, Christian Petracca, Clayton Oliver, et al, will again rise to the occasion. But the real improvement will come from a talented younger brigade, with seven of their premiership side being 21 or under on Grand Final day this year.
Two of them, Rising Star winner Luke Jackson and forward pressure machine Kozzie Pickett could elevate their game into the top bracket in a very short period of time.
The Dogs ($7) are the team best placed to upset the Demons.
But Richmond represents a cheeky bet at odds at $11. Reckon the Tigers still have one last shot in the chamber next year as everything that could go wrong did go wrong in 2021.
Over to you, Dusty and co.
The TAB money trail:
Melbourne responsible for 40% of trade, biggest bets two $2000 bets at $4.50.
Western Bulldogs next most popular at 14.5%, but they are responsible for the biggest bet placed to this point - $5000 at $7.
Third most popular is Brisbane at 8% with the surprise probably being Carlton coming in fourth at 6.5% (just ahead of Richmond, 6%). Have taken two bets of $1000 at $34 on the Blues.
TAB’s Brad Bishop: “Melbourne heads betting at $4.50 but their price probably doesn’t reflect their dominance, with 40 percent of money bet to this point being on the reigning champions. Carlton is the team at a price the punters don’t mind with two bets of $1000 at $34 meaning the Blues are our worst result.”
BROWNLOW
Jay Clark says: Hugh McCluggage (Bris). For value, it’s hard to go past Brisbane Lions’ Hugh McCluggage at $81. The running machine will be the man to stop in the Brisbane midfield and will get a rails run if Lachie Neale stays fit.
Wins heaps of it and kicks goals. Of the favourites, the Demons’ two onball dynamos will be right in the mix again but there’s not an umpire in the country who won’t love marking down S Walsh 3 votes. The Blues’ young gun will finish on the podium.
Scott Gullan says: Sam Walsh. Fourth last year playing in a disappointing team. If the Blues improve and win more games as expected, the running machine will hoover up more votes.
Glenn McFarlane says: Is it a little sad I still haven’t thrown away the $12 TAB ticket for Marcus Bontempelli to win the 2021 Brownlow? Still can’t believe he didn’t win it! Having backed the Bont to win ‘Charlie’ every year almost since 2016, I’ll be front and centre again on the Bulldogs skipper again next year, even if the current odds are a little too skinny at $6.
He had more BOGs than anyone else last year, but couldn’t quite nail Ollie Wines. Then let’s look for some value. Clayton Oliver at $9 will hopefully give you a good sight, anytime you see Dusty Martin at $11 you have to have a nibble, and maybe Zach Merrett (polled in 12 games last year) might be over the odds at $34.
The TAB money trail:
Sam Walsh is the most popular, responsible for 17% of trade and has been $9 in to $7.
Ollie Wines (10%) next most popular ahead of Christian Petracca and Marcus Bontempelli (both 9%).
Matt Rowell ($151 to $101) is the worst result with Patrick Dangerfield ($51, inc one bet of $500 at $51) the second worst.
TAB’s Brad Bishop: “Sam Walsh was the one many were talking about off the back of this year’s count and he’s been clearly the most popular player in the first couple of months of betting, tightening from $9 in to $7. A couple at longer prices are worse results, though, with Matt Rowell popular at $101 and one punter thinks Patrick Dangerfield can win another one, having $500 at $51.”
RISING STAR
Jay Clark says: Jason Horne-Francis (NM). We’ve heard it one thousand times since the season ended. North Melbourne’s Jason Horne-Francis is something special. The two Adelaide clubs will throw the kitchen sink at him but the Kangaroos are the perfect landing spot. He’ll get huge opportunity to play 20 games in his first season, hit the scoreboard, and become a frontline weapon for a club on the up. Tough and competitive, watch ‘The Hornet’ shine from the first bounce. Hawthorn’s Josh Ward will also get a big go under Sam Mitchell and has a huge tank. Ready now.
Scott Gullan says: Finlay Macrae. The Pies need an injection of youth through its midfield and the younger brother of Bulldogs star Jackson showed enough in a handful of games to be handed a more prominent role.
Glenn McFarlane says: Only one father-son selection (Ben Cousins) has gone on to win a Rising Star award, but that could change next season in what looks like being a vintage year for the 2022 contenders. My early money is on Collingwood’s son-of-a-gun Nick Daicos, who will get every chance to make an immediate impression in a developing team intent on playing the kids.
He is $4 favourite and if he can have a clear run with injuries, the No.4 draft pick in the No.35 jumper famously worn by his father Peter can become the Pies’ second Rising Star. Daicos is likely to alternate between half-back and the midfield throughout his first season. His challenges will likely come from North Melbourne’s No.1 pick Jason Horne-Francis ($5), Giant Finn Callaghan ($10), and second year players Jamarra Ugle-Hagan ($7), Logan McDonald ($10) and Braeden Campbell ($11). Wouldn’t it be some sort of story if this year’s draft shooting star Mac Andrew ($26) gives this award a shake for Gold Coast!
The TAB money trail:
There hasn’t been a lot of money taken yet, but more than half of what we do hold has been on Nick Daicos, who opened $5 second favourite behind Jason Horne-Fancis but is now favourite at $4.
AFLW
Jay Clark says: Melbourne can do the double. After the men’s premiership, what a fairytale it would be for Daisy Pearce in potentially her final season. Kate Hore provides the class and star power in attack alongside new recruit Tayla Harris, but Olivia Purcell’s move from Geelong to the Demons will be equally significant.
Rising Star winner Tyla Hanks will be in everything and has won plenty of admirers with her courage and composure over the ball. North Melbourne will be right up there and Collingwood is the other big threat.
Glenn McFarlane says: This might be a very different season of Demons’ back-to-back triumph if Melbourne’s AFLW team can emulate the men’s side.
It would also give Daisy Pearce the AFLW flag she has long craved. Having injured her knee during the club’s final campaign earlier this year, Pearce has used that to drive her forward.
The Demons ($5) have a strong list with a cross of experience and youth and this year’s loss in a preliminary final to Adelaide could be the motivation to take them further in 2022.
Might also be willing to have a small saver on Collingwood ($6.50), with the Magpies looking well placed to have their best AFLW season.
TAB’s Brad Bishop: “Melbourne has a tentative grip on favouritism in the AFLW, but Collingwood is the team that has attracted the bulk of the money to this point and is easily TAB’s worst way with Fremantle the next most popular.”
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Originally published as AFL 2022 predictions for premiership, Brownlow medal, Rising Star and AFLW
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