Will No.1 draft pick Sam Walsh be successful SuperCoach selection?

Carlton teenager Sam Walsh is the third-most popular player in SuperCoach after a stunning JLT Series debut. But a closer look at No.1 draft picks shows we should proceed with caution.

Sam Walsh at Carlton training.

No.1 draft picks are reliable selections in SuperCoach, but don’t bank on them to score big or make too much money.

That’s the takeaway from analysis of the past 10 years of top draft picks in their first full SuperCoach season.

Will Sam Walsh break the trend?

JLT: EVERY SUPERCOACH SCORE FROM SAINTS v ROOS

RESEARCH: EVERY SUPERCOACH SCORE FROM CATS v EAGLES

TACTICS: SIX SUPERCOACH SELECTION STRATEGIES

LOAD UP: WHY BLUES WILL BE A SUPERCOACH GOLDMINE

The Carlton teenager caught the eye with 28 classy disposals against Essendon in the Blues’ opening JLT Series game, after being named one of the best players on the ground in an intra-club clash against Hawthorn a week earlier.

He scored 102 SuperCoach points against Essendon, the third-highest tally on the ground.

Champion Data could have told us that’s what would happen — Walsh averaged 28 disposals across his junior career and won the most disposals at last year’s under-18 national championships.

Sam Walsh has done everything right for Carlton so far.

His SuperCoach ownership has soared in recent days and he is now the third-most popular player in the game, selected in 56 per cent of teams.

But will he be a successful pick? The potential problem isn’t his ability to find the ball, it’s his $207,300 price tag — the highest of all first-year players.

Starting with such an elevated price tag makes it a lot harder for SuperCoach rookies to make cash, which is their real value in our teams.

A quick look at three of last year’s top recruits illustrates the challenge ahead for Walsh.

No.1 draft pick Cam Rayner, Rising Star Jaidyn Stephenson and recycled Sun Nick Homan all played the first 11 matches of last season.

Stephenson averaged 65 SuperCoach points and his value increased $139,800 by the time coaches were looking to trade him out of their sides. Rayner, meanwhile, went up by $70,000 based on a 55 average.

In the same period Nick Holman averaged 73 points and his value jumped $204,200.

EXPERT: GARY BUCKENARA’S ROOKIE BIBLE

PODCASTS: LISTEN YOUR WAY TO SUPERCOACH SUPREMACY

GOLDEN RULES: 21 TIPS FOR SUPERCOACH SUCCESS

There were two key factors to Holman’s success — a timely 122-point game against Port Adelaide in Round 9 that was fresh in his price cycle, and his super low starting price of $102,400.

The SuperCoach pricing formula gives a huge benefit to players with a lower base — which is why Angus Brayshaw (starting price $316,700) had to average well over 100 in the second half of last season to turn a profit about the same as Holman.

It’s also worth noting that draftees very rarely return the kind of numbers Walsh did against the Bombers every week. Last season the top-scoring first-year players were Tim Kelly (93 average), who was recruited from the WAFL as a 23-year-old, Tom Doedee (82), who had been on the Crows list playing SANFL for two years, and Brayden Sier (80), who turned 21 in December. Of the kids, Jack Higgins (72), James Worpel (72) and Stephenson (64) were the standouts.

None of this makes Walsh a bad selection — and if he scores 100 every week, he will make a lot of cash. But consider the No.1 draft picks who have gone before him so you know what you’re paying for.

2019 — Sam Walsh

Starting price: $211,800

Season average: ?

Price rise to R11: ?

Overall price rise: ?

2018 — Cam Rayner

Starting price: $202,800

Season average: 60.4

Price rise to R11: $70,300

Overall price rise: $109,500

Cam Rayner played mostly as a forward in his first season.

Paddy McCartin played only six games in his first year. Picture: Michael Klein

2017 — Andrew McGrath

Starting price: $211,800

Season average: 70.7

Price rise to R11: $156,400

Overall price rise: $121,900

2016 — Jacob Weitering

Starting price: $220,800

Season average: 67.7

Price rise to R11: $78,200

Overall price rise: $112,500

2015 — Paddy McCartin

Starting price: $222,300

Season average: 37.2

Price rise to R11: -

Overall price rise: -$5400

2014 — Tom Boyd

Starting price: $217,300

Season average: 44.6

Price rise to R11: -

Overall price rise: $32,900

2013 — Lachie Whitfield

Starting price: $199,500

Season average: 73

Pri ce rise to R11: $131,600

Overall price rise: $165,400

2012 — Jonathon Patton

Starting price: $196,600

Season average: 45

Price rise to R11: -

Overall price rise: $5500

Tom Scully at Melbourne training in his debut season.

2011 — David Swallow

Starting price: $188,600

Season average: 79.5

Price rise to R11: $145,500

Overall price rise: $109,700

2010 — Tom Scully

Starting price: $179,200

Season average: 71.1

Price rise to R11: $140,700

Overall price rise: $207,000

Originally published as Will No.1 draft pick Sam Walsh be successful SuperCoach selection?