SuperCoach team selection: Five winning strategies

ARE you picking a “guns and rookies” squad or rolling the dice on a “forward line frenzy”? Five selection strategies explained. SAMPLE TEAMS

ESSENDON TRAINING

IN THIS edition of our pre-season series showcasing advice from the Nissan SuperCoach experts, Mad Mick from the Jock Reynolds community reveals the pros and cons of five selection strategies that could lead us to glory in the 2015 season.

DO YOU play on instinct or follow a carefully devised plan?

When it comes to starting SuperCoach squads, a well constructed team built with a clear plan behind it will almost always outperform a team formulated on gut instinct.

AFL coaches love to talk about “structures” and in SuperCoach it’s no different.

Detailed below are five different starting structures that you may consider adopting for your assault on a 2015 SuperCoach premiership — with a sample team for each. All have their pros and cons — which will you adopt?

RUCK DILEMMA: SET AND FORGET OR CHEAP AND RISKY?

GUNS AND ROOKIES

A popular strategy that results in a team made up exclusively of high-scoring stars and cheap players with scoring potential.

The premise is simple — when building your squad, pick one gun then one rookie through all the lines (defence, midfield, rucks, forwards) until you run out of money to pick any more premium players. Then fill the remaining spots with rookies.

PROS

— Information on newly recruited AFL players becomes more detailed every year. With just a little bit of research SuperCoaches can quite successfully select rookies that will play and increase in value. They can then traded in for more stars during the season.

— Avoid the risks associated with picking mid-priced players.

CONS

— Most rookie-priced players are unknown quantities. Just because they are named in Round 1 doesn’t mean they are safe in a team’s best 22. Remember Relton Roberts?

— The problem with starting with so many rookies is you are increasing the likelihood that you will have dreaded sub-vest affected scores.

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Tip: SuperCoaches adopting this strategy need to consider selecting as many mature-aged rookies as possible. Players who enter the system with senior experience are capable of higher and more consistent scoring — prime examples this year include Blaine Boekhorst at Carlton and Melbourne’s Ben Newton.

SAMPLE TEAM

An example of a guns and rookies team.

A classic G’n’R forward line.

THE MID-PRICED TEAM

A mid-priced team isn’t just a team of mid-price players, as it still has top-level premiums and some bargain basement rookies. The difference is that this strategy is based around a core of mid-priced players.

Generally, a mid-price player is valued from $215,000-$500,000. When picking one of these players SuperCoaches are looking above all for value for money.

PROS

— If you can pick the right mid-pricer in your initial team you gain a significant advantage over the rest of the pack.

— The likelihood is that a mid-priced strategy will outscore a Guns and Rookies team in the early stages. SuperCoaches who adopt this strategy are more likely to gain valuable wins in the early stages of their leagues and keep them in the hunt for the $50,000 grand prize.

RIVALRY: BEN BROWN LIFTS LID ON ARDEN ST SUPERCOACH LEAGUE

CONS

— For every David Swallow and Robbie Gray who break out and become an elite scorer,

there are just as many players that stagnate or even regress (remember Dale Thomas?). Finding that diamond in the rough isn’t as easy as many think and trying to find one comes with great risk.

— It can be very hard later in the year to justify trading out a player who is scoring well but just not at an elite level. Mitch Duncan increased his average by 20 points in 2014 to finish with an average of 100 points, making him a great value pick. But still only ranked 45th for average points among the midfielders.

BOOKMARK THIS PAGE: SUPERCOACH PRE-SEASON RESEARCH

Tip: Only select players coming back from injury who have completed a full pre-season with no setbacks or incidents. When choosing a breakout contender, look for players who have a new role. St Kilda’s Jack Newnes is shaping as a shaping as a solid pick this year as he graduates from defence to the midfield.

SAMPLE TEAM

There are plenty of potential mid-price success stories in 2015.

But how many is too many?

THE LOCKED AND LOADED MIDFIELD

This approach is as simple as loading up the midfield with elite and super elite players, locking them in, throwing away the key and forgetting about them for the rest of the year.

PROS

— Midfielders make up most of the elite and super elite players. By picking as many of these elite premiums as possible in your starting squad, you maximise your midfield scoring potential over the entire season.

— Stacking your team with top-scoring players guarantees you will make a flying start to the season.

— Rule changes this year include an added emergency in the midfield, which means you still have the potential for cash generation with the extra rookie on your bench.   

CONS

— Just as the best scoring premiums are midfielders, so too are the best scoring rookies. SuperCoaches who go with this strategy will most likely be forfeiting some of the highest scoring rookies in the competition, which will limit their team’s ability to generate cash for later trades.

— It has been a continuing trend that the rookies in the back, forward and ruck lines lack the ability to score well and hold down a position in their side’s best 22. Extra midfield stars means you will be relying on rookies across these lines after spending most of your salary cap in the midfield.

Tip: Only select seven premium mids to allow you to select the potential four best scoring rookies. This will help with cash generation during the year and allow you to select an underpriced player for your last midfield upgrade.

SAMPLE TEAM

Look at all those midfield superstars!

The defence and forward lines look a bit a thin, though.

ROOKIE MIDFIELD MADNESS

Instead of loading up the midfield with elite and super elite players, fill your midfield positions with rookies instead. You then fill all your other lines with elite premiums.

PROS

— The best rookies are clearly in the midfield so it makes sense to pick a rookie who could average 80 in the mids compared to picking a rookie in the backline that might only average 50.

— By selecting so many of the higher scoring rookies, SuperCoaches who adopt this strategy will ensure fast cash generation for their sides.

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CONS

— Rookies remain dicey propositions even in the midfield with a high chance of being rested or being handed the sub vest.

— If you don’t start with the gun midfielders you will have to spend a lot to trade them in during the season. While you might get a star in defence or up forward for a bargain price, midfielders tend to hold their value and you will probably have to cough up more than $600,000 to bring the elite stars into your side.

— There is big gulf between an 80 average from a rookie and a 120 average from a super elite player. If this margin can’t be made up by your forward and defender premiums, then you might struggle early until you can upgrade those rookies.

Tip: Ensure you select at least one super elite player in your midfield who can be your captain in the early rounds of the season. Can’t go wrong with Gary Ablett.

SAMPLE TEAM

This can be a great option in a year with a lot of quality midfield rookie options.

And it frees up cash to pick all those gun forwards and defenders.

FORWARD LINE FRENZY

The dynamics of potential starting squads can change from year to year based on the quality of players available in each position. In 2015 we have seen an influx of quality players available in the forward line, many with new dual-position status.

Brett Deledio, Brendon Goddard, Jimmy Bartel, Dane Swan, Harley Bennel, Jack Ziebell and Paddy Ryder, along with the other proven premiums like Robbie Gray, Brent Harvey, Lance Franklin and Dustin Martin are all forwards this year. Looking at that list you could argue that a fully-loaded “Forward line frenzy” becomes a valid starting strategy in 2015.

PROS

— You are picking proven SuperCoach premiums in your squad as opposed to trying to balance your starting team and spending big on potential flops in the backline.

— SuperCoaches who adopt this strategy will have one line complete from the start of the year allowing them to concentrate and make all the correct upgrades on the other lines.

DEFENCE: TOUGH SEARCH FOR SUPERCOACH VALUE

FORWARDS: BEST ROOKIE PICKS

CONS

— Going for value down back could backfire badly. These players are generally cheap for a reason. With just a couple of bad selections you might find it hard to upgrade these players as they hold or even lose value while contributing very little points to your weekly scores.

— By starting so many forwards you could potentially miss out on upgrading to a new forward superstar as all your forward line spots are filled. Robbie Gray and Luke Parker became must-have upgrades for many in 2014. If you didn’t have room for them you would have missed out on value and points.

Tip: It would be wise to start with at least one link between your midfield and forward lines if going with this strategy, by picking at least one mid/fwd player on each line. This will ensure that you have added cover in the event of an early injury.

SAMPLE TEAM

A shallow pool of top-end talent in defence this year will tempt many players to look for value down back.

And check out the scoring power up forward!

Even worse than picking the wrong plan for your SuperCoach line-up is not having a plan at all.

The more thought you can put in now towards generating cash, trading targets and bye rounds, the more success you will enjoy during the season.

Will you go with one of the five strategies outlined above, or something original? Let us know — and good luck!

Mick The Mad Irishman is a contributor to jockreynolds.com.au. A version of this article appeared in the inaugural Jock Reynolds SuperCoach magazine. For more detailed strategic wisdoms on starting structures, trading and winning game play from Mick and the Jock Reynolds team, order your copy here.

Originally published as SuperCoach team selection: Five winning strategies