SuperCoach analysis: Are mid-pricers worth the risk?

Tempting mid-price players are appearing in growing numbers in our SuperCoach teams, but are they a good idea? Looking deeper at the stats and likely price changes reveals some surprising answers.

There are once again too many seemingly decent mid-priced options in SuperCoach this season. Every year it is the same story, however should we seriously be considering them?

We’re talking about players starting priced less than the premium players worth about $500,000, but more than Carlton’s No.1 draft pick Sam Walsh, the most expensive rookie from the draft, who is starting at $207,300.

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There are many players in this price bracket who sure are tantalising! Brodie Smith, Zach Williams, Tom Liberatore, Dom Sheed, Callum Mills, Toby Greene, Brad Crouch, Luke Dahlhaus, Tom Rockliff, Jack Billings, Jack Darling and Tim English are just some of the names in that group who look terribly underpriced. And there are others, such as Darcy Moore, James Cousins, Charlie Ballard and Jordan Ridley who could be great options and are so cheap that they are basically just expensive rookies.

There are several benefits to starting with mid-pricers: They will likely play more than rookies, score more than rookies, and they could potentially score just as much as premium players, but at a much cheaper price, meaning they can present significant value in a game such as this with a hard salary cap.

Keep in mind though that using more expensive mid-pricers instead of rookies does not leave enough money for as many premium players in your line-up, and while they will generally score more points than rookie-priced players this can be offset by having fewer premium players.

Jake Lloyd started last year as a mid-pricer and finished as the top-scoring defender.

When selecting a mid-pricer the aim is to try to pick players who will either perform well enough to be a keeper in your side (and be part of your “finished” full-premium side), or increase in value enough to be able to trade them to a premium player with just one trade, while also scoring well for your team along the way. These players can often be found by looking for players who are returning after long-term injuries, have changed clubs or role in their team, or who are set for a breakout season.

Last season, there were several players who started mid-priced and finished the season among the top performers of their position. Here is a list sorted by position, with their 2018 starting price in brackets:

Defence: Jake Lloyd ($479,900), James Sicily ($402,800), Tom McDonald ($465,800);

Midfield: None.

Ruck: None.

Forward: Sicily again, Tom Hawkins ($473,700) and Justin Westhoff ($479,600).

This list only considers the top six forwards and defenders, the top eight midfielders and the top five rucks. There were several other mid-pricers on the fringe of these cut-off points, such as Angus Brayshaw, Stephen Coniglio, Toby Nankervis and Devon Smith.

Looking at this data from last season (which is also very similar to seasons past) all of the top midfielders and rucks started as premiums, while half of the top six forwards and backs started mid-priced.

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The difficulty is selecting the right mid-pricer who will achieve these goals. For every mid-pricer who breaks out and performs well above their value, there are many more who struggle.

Being stuck with a struggling mid-pricer in your team isn’t ideal. Often, rookies will be outscoring them at a cheaper price; their value will have either stagnated or possibly even dropped, and you will need to blow trades to move them out.

Sure, we have enough trades to fix up some mistakes such as a failed mid-pricer, however you don’t want too many in your team or you will be playing catch up all season after wasting trades on them in multiple rounds when you could have been finding the right rookies or upgrading to premiums instead.

With a limited number of trades, you not only need to use them wisely, but also need to set your team up at the beginning to get the most value out of your trades.

If you start with fewer mid-pricers, you will have fewer positions needing to be upgraded (with more premiums already in your starting team), and, as the season progresses your rookie-priced players will rise in price more quickly and predictably than mid-priced players, allowing more value for your trades and more potential to fully upgrade your team.

Tom Liberatore is a popular mid-price pick this year.

Mid-priced GWS defender Zac Williams.

Last season there were 25 players who rose in value at least $200k more than their starting price, and only four of these started as mid-pricers. These were (again, with their 2018 starting price in brackets): Jed Anderson ($258,600), Aliir Aliir ($218,100), Angus Brayshaw ($316,700), and Josh Dunkley ($296,900). The other 21 players all started below Sam Walsh’s starting price, and 19 of them actually started below $136,000.

Selecting the right mid-pricer who has a breakout year could be the defining decision of your season, but so could the decision not to take on a risky player.

Before Dylan Roberton’s sad news regarding his health and that he will be sitting out the season, he seemed as close to a lock as you could find for a mid-pricer, and now that he is out of the picture for SuperCoach in 2019, here are my top four options for you to consider. It’s probably best not to choose them all, or will this be the year where we hit all of our predictions? It’s the eternal question!

Zac Williams (GWS) $407,800 DEF

The mid-pricer I am most likely to start with. Hopefully 2018 is just a blip on the radar and he can return to be among the top six defenders, where he finished in 2017.

Tom Rockliff (Port) $405,900 MID

Last season Rockliff scored fewer than 67 points in eight matches during his first season at Port Adelaide. Could we really be considering him for 2019? He played an absolutely brilliant game in the JLT2 (170 points), and he is a genuine chance to sit among the top-scorers in SuperCoach, which has put him at the forefront of our considerations again. Ultimate high risk, high reward option.

Brad Crouch (Adel) $418,000 MID

Has never had any problems with scoring in SuperCoach, and this stayed true throughout the JLT. His main issue in recent years has been getting on the park. If he has a change in fortune and manages to play the year out, he could end up being one of the top midfielders in the comp.

Tom Liberatore (WB) $300,400 MID

Very cheap for a player who has previously averaged 106 and 110 in successive seasons, even though it was back in 2013-14. He’s been playing in the midfield during the JLT series and looks to be in for a big year.

Anthony Hack is a contributor at TooSerious.net and is on Twitter @ant_hak

Originally published as SuperCoach analysis: Are mid-pricers worth the risk?