SuperCoach AFL: Patch’s ultimate guide to dealing with the mid-season byes
Every year, SuperCoach expert Patch would reach the byes and think, ‘Oh dear, I’ve beaned this up’. No more. He unpacks how to beat the byes in 2024.
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The byes are dead. Long live the byes.
We survived four weeks of best 18 scoring to start the season and now have an easy, breezy, beautiful run of five weeks with no byes at all.
And then, rudely, we have more byes.
But these aren’t the two clubs off per week type of byes. The gloves are off.
Four clubs have the bye in round 12, then just two in round 13, before six clubs each have a week off in rounds 14 and 15.
Every season, I put off preparing for the byes, and every year I hit the week before the byes and yell at myself for doing so. This year is going to be different, I promise.
We’re going to think about the byes in advance. We’re going to get through it.
BYES IN THE GOOD OLD DAYS
In years gone by, when I was a wee lad, the three bye weeks were when we would try to finish upgrading our teams.
The traditional way to approach it was to select more players from the second and third weeks of the byes, and then double (or triple) downgrade in the week going into the bye, often scraping into having just 18 or 19 available players.
The week after, we’d upgrade two rookies to two premiums coming off their bye, and do one more downgrade for trades the following week.
The idea was hopefully you would have three – or even four – extra premiums in the final week of byes who had already had a week off, offsetting starting more players from the second and third weeks of byes.
Instead of splitting your squad up into having eight players off each week, you’d try to aim for six premiums off in the final week, and then cover them with new options by the time their week off arrived.
Does this conventional logic still fly?
We now have more trades, boosts, and an extra bye week to consider.
During those bygone years, a trade was like a beer. It smelt good, it looked good, and you’d step over your own mother to get one.
We had only 24 of them, and had to ration them out carefully, and upgrade season wouldn’t begin until round 8 or 9, once rookies had begun fattening. Now, with nearly double that number of trades, we’re blessed with the ability to correct rookie mistakes and bad premium selections, and we’re able to take advantage of rookies fattening earlier, meaning upgrade season is already in full swing.
Some coaches who’ve avoided sideways trades will have nearly completed sides by the time the first week of byes rolls around, especially those who’ve been liberal using boosts.
SuperCoach is a whole new ball game.
BYES IN THE GOOD NOW DAYS
With coaches coming into the byes with nearly-completed sides, there’s both less scope to target upgrades around one poor week of availability and less forgiveness for people who ignore the byes when upgrading their team.
Some coaches deciding between multiple fallen premiums over the next few weeks will be searching for reasons to split Marcus Bontempelli and Christian Petracca, and your bye round structure should be one of those reasons.
I think conventional wisdom still holds – most people will still be upgrading and finishing their sides during the byes, meaning we want to target players coming off their bye when trading ahead of round 12 and 13.
Round 13 is unique in the mid-season byes as only two clubs – Fremantle and Port Adelaide – have the week off, meaning we can load up on three to four premiums from that week and still have ample cover for best 18.
This means I’ll be targeting players who have their byes in round 14 and 15 when upgrading in the coming weeks.
PATCH’S BYE ROUND STRATEGY
I hope to have 14 premiums in my side by round 12, and only have Zach Reid and Coen Livingstone as non-playing rookies, meaning I have 28 playing players to pick from each week. While rookies will come and go and change these numbers, barring injury the premiums won’t change between now and then, allowing me to plan around them.
PLAYERS TO TARGET
From: Crows, Pies, Dogs, Hawks, Saints, Tigers, Dockers, Power
Marcus Bontempelli is a great pick at a great price this week, as is Bailey Dale, and also has a great bye. Jack Sinclair is another finding some form with a late bye, while Liam Baker is cheap, has great DPP and an excellent bye. Jordan Dawson and Dyl Moore are also excellent pick-ups.
James Sicily might have turned the corner after losing $100k off his starting price, Shai Bolton is about to nosedive in value (Break Even 194) and Connor Rozee will also be very cheap after he returns from his hamstring issue.
If you bring in $102k MID Lachie Sullivan this week or next week it makes sense to hold him through the first three bye rounds then trade him out in round 15 to a player who has already had their bye.
PLAYERS TO AVOID
From: Lions, Giants, Swans, Roos (round 12), Suns, Blues, Cats, Dons, Dees, Eagles (round 14)
The tricky week for most will be round 14, with most sides already running the risk of overloading on premiums that week. Upgrading to any of the Suns top dogs may have to wait until after their bye, likewise Zach Merrett, Christian Petracca and Jeremy Cameron trade-ins need to be weighed up against who else from this bye in already in your side.
We won’t have any issues avoiding Roos, who have been miserable to start the season, but it might hasten decisions on trading out players like Charlie Comben or Tom Powell.
Meanwhile, we’ve got a glut of Swans and Giants on offer. Josh Kelly has been enjoying a strong run and is cheap, while Josh Dunkley is one in very few sides but pumping out great scores. Sadly, his bye means he’s one I’ll look to target later on.
Likewise, Dayne Zorko had been high on my radar for several weeks now, but with Connor McKenna’s return his role is more up in the air, and his bye means I’d rather wait until after round 12 to look at him.
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Originally published as SuperCoach AFL: Patch’s ultimate guide to dealing with the mid-season byes
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