KFC SuperCoach expert Al Paton reveals his 2020 starting side

After more than two months of research, intense debate and some gut-feel calls, Herald Sun KFC SuperCoach expert Al Paton has settled on his starting line-up. And it’s not what he expected.

I can’t remember entering a KFC SuperCoach season with this much uncertainty. And that was before a global pandemic turned the sporting landscape upside-down.

At one level, not a lot has changed since I picked a team when this year’s SuperCoach prices were released just before Christmas. Buddy is gone but 11 members of that side are still there today — I can also claim rookie Connor Budarick, who was on my bench even though I had never heard of him — and the structure is essentially the same. That isn’t supposed to happen.

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Dustin Martin was the first player picked in Al Paton’s team.

History tells us that over the course of the pre-season bottom-priced players emerge to demand spots in our teams, pushing out those early speculative picks and resulting in a more traditional low-risk guns and rookies team.

This year that just hasn’t happened, at least not in the kind of volume that would dictate how to build a team around them.

In December starting five super-premium midfielders looked like a fun experiment, now it’s a necessity. I’ve briefly looked at a team without the Brodie Grundy-Max Gawn ruck combo or the Lachie Whitfield-Dustin Martin one-two punch up forward, but couldn’t go through with it.

That doesn’t leaeve too many sports (or salary cap) to fill out my squad with a mix of value premiums, mid-pricers and top-priced rookies. Here’s how it looks a few days out from Round 1.

DEFENDERS

Luke Ryan (Fremantle) $520,400

James Sicily (Hawthorn) $509,500

Sam Docherty (Carlton) $436,100

Dylan Roberton (St Kilda) $260,400

John Noble (Collingwood) $215,400

Brandon Zerk-Thatcher (Essendon) $189,000

Bench: Jez McLennan (Gold Coast) $123,900, Tobe Watson (Fremantle) $123,900

Strategy: Avoid top-priced premiums, pay for rookie job security. I can’t see the most expensive defenders improving from last year and they should all be available for a better price at some stage. I’ve been keen on James Sicily for a long time — his average dropped 12 points last year but he should get back to that 105 level if he stays in that intercepting role at half-back. I can see Docker Luke Ryan producing similar output — his average of 96 last year included a couple of injury-impacted games and he will absolutely love Justin Longmuir’s new Collingwood-style high-possession game plan.

Sam Docherty has never left my team, Dylan Roberton offers huge upside then it’s down to the “rookies”. I wouldn’t normally spend more than $150,000 on these positions but this year you have to pay up to get guys who will definitely play. If John Noble and Brandon Zerk-Thatcher can average 70-80 they should gain that $150,000 you need to cash in to make a good trade.

I’m not expecting many points from my bench but McLennan and Watson seem likely Round 1 starters. If Will Gould or Bailey Williams are picked, I’ll be bringing them in.

Player I still want: Isaac Cumming interests me a lot. He’s a $245k defender who has been around for a few years and scored 86 and 111 in his two Marsh Series games. The worry is keeping his spot in the strong GWS team. If he’s playing in Round 1 he could take Noble’s spot. I’m going to need Jake Lloyd at some point - anyone have a spare $100k they can loan me?

MIDFIELDERS

Jack Macrae (Western Bulldogs) $668,900

Josh Dunkley (Western Bulldogs) $632,400

Tom Mitchell (Hawthorn) $630,900

Patrick Dangerfield (Hawthorn) $625,500

Stephen Coniglio (GWS Giants) $549,500

Matthew Rowell (Gold Coast) $207,300

Tom Green (GWS Giants) $166,800

Marlion Pickett (Richmond) $123,900

Bench: Deven Robertson (Brisbane Lions) $117,300, Jeremy Sharp (Gold Coast) $117,300, Connor Budarick (Gold Coast) $106,900 FWD/MID

Strategy: Bang, bang, bang, bang, bang. A couple of weeks ago I told myself I couldn’t really pick five all-star midfielders and had to sacrifice one to beef up by defence and forward line. The problem was finding four rookies worth starting on the field plus another three for the bench.

In the end I landed on a compromise of sorts in Stephen Coniglio, who is capable of top-level scoring but at a $50k saving on my previous M5 Clayton Oliver. Macrae (scores with his eyes shut), Dunkley (about $60k underpriced based on his output after he became a full-time midfielder) and Dangerfield (reliable and affordable) were all in my December team.

Western Bulldogs points machine Jack Macrae.

Tom Mitchell is ready to go in Round 1.

Tom Mitchell is a bit of a risk — he’s still very pricey after a year off with a broken leg — but he ticked every box in the pre-season as he builds back towads his incredible scoring levels of 2018. He might not be there in Round 1 but if he is by Round 6 that gives me a big head-start on other players who will have to find a way to get him in. The Rowell-Green-Pickett line will feature in most teams.

Player I still want: Not starting Patrick Cripps has huge potential to burn me especially considering he loves playing against Richmond, scoring 126, 134 and 130 in his past three against the Tigers. I’m also buying into the Marcus Bontempelli hype but facing Matt de Boer twice in the first 12 rounds scares me off. Nat Fyfe has been a staple in my side for years but there isn’t much value there this season and he has durability concerns. But he'll probably push a 120-average again. Hell, all the top-10 mids are great!

RUCK

Brodie Grundy (Collingwood) $705,900

Max Gawn (Melbourne) $697,100

Bench: Darcy Cameron (Collingwood) $123,900

Strategy: Select the best two scorers in their position by a huge margin and move on. I had some nervous moments after Gawn’s pre-season injury but never actually took him out of my team. Cameron won’t play in Round 1 but he is a chance to break into Collingwood’s side at some stage and if he does he should score OK.

Player I still want: Could still swap Cameron for one of the two cheap North Melbourne rucks, Charlie Comben or Tristan Xerri. I do love a loophole.

FORWARDS

Lachie Whitfield (GWS) $604,100 FWD/MID

Dustin Martin (Richmond) $543,000 FWD/MID

Devon Smith (Essendon) $335,800 FWD/MID

Jarrod Brander (West Coast) $133,000

Curtis Taylor (North Melbourne) $123,900

Izak Rankine (Gold Coast) $123,900

Bench: Max King (St Kilda) $123,900, Jack Mahoney (North Melbourne) $117,300

Strategy: Whitfield, Dusty, then ... who knows? Two clear premiums, not many rookies and a bunch of mid-price temptations. Devon Smith is locked away — I expect him to push or even beat his 99 average from 2018 — but can’t say I’m in love with the picks after that. There’s still a decent chance I’ll try to squeeze another potential top-scorer in here, probably by moving Jarrod Brander back to defence. The problem is settling on one; unlike my colleague and friend Tim Michell I don’t have a great deal of confidence in the likes of Christian Petracca, Hugh Greenwood, Andrew Brayshaw, Darcy Parish and all the other mid-pricers.

Player I still want: I’m a big Jack Steven fan but still have question marks over his ability to be a consistent premium scorer. The move I’ve been going backwards and forwards on the most is removing Luke Ryan, moving Brander back and bringing Steven in. I don’t think he can score at Ryan’s level all year but if he can get close the $160,000 saved could be the clincher. Really it all comes down to the quality of rookies we get when Round 1 teams are named in a few days.

MORE SUPERCOACH TIPS:

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Herald Sun chief football writer Mark Robinson reveals his revised KFC SuperCoach team

Champion Data’s KFC SuperCoach expert Fantasy Freako reveals his 2020 team

KFC SuperCoach’s ultimate cheat sheet helps you pick a team in five minutes

Here’s my full team as it stands. What do you think of my picks and my strategy? Leave a comment below — and good luck with your squads. The challenges this year mean there are a lot of possible approaches, and right now none of them are wrong.

Al Paton's 2020 SuperCoach line-up.

Projected Round 1 score: 1890

Originally published as KFC SuperCoach expert Al Paton reveals his 2020 starting side