KFC SuperCoach 2020: The Phantom’s verdict on the lineball calls in the midfield
Josh Kelly or Nat Fyfe? Josh Dunkley or Marcus Bontempelli? And is Tim Kelly the best option at his price? The Phantom solves your head-to-head dilemmas in the midfield.
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Can’t decide between two players? Having trouble with the rookie selections? The Phantom runs the rule over the key dilemmas in the midfield.
Nat Fyfe (Freo $651,600) v Josh Kelly (GWS $637,700)
After 17 SuperCoach tons, six of them in excess of 140, Fyfe finished as one of only four players in the competition to average 120 or more last year – even with the concussion-affected 63 in Round 3.
It was the third time he’s achieved the feat in his career.
At his best, there isn’t many in the competition who can rival his scoring power.
Kelly, however, is one of those select few.
In his 14 home-and-away matches last season, the smooth-moving Giant scored 100 points or more in 11 of them, passing the 120-point mark on six occasions.
A year earlier, Kelly posted five scores of 130 or more – including a 202-point performance – in 15 games.
But that’s 29, out of a possible 44, home-and-away matches.
Before the hip, knee, groin and calf issues began, Kelly made 21 appearances in 2017, taking his tally to 50 minor-round games in the past three years.
Fyfe has played 56 games in this period, scoring 640 more points than Kelly.
The Fremantle skipper’s durability, however, has come under question, too, after he missed six games with a hamstring injury in 2018.
And back in 2016, he played just five matches after re-breaking his left leg.
But, in a positive, the two games Fyfe missed last season were on the back of minor – and what could be considered unlucky – incidents: a concussion early in the year and an infected elbow in Round 18.
Kelly, on the other hand, missed the opening two rounds of the year after off-season hip and knee surgery, one match with an adductor issue in Round 7 and five weeks after a grade-one calf tear in Round 16.
And, despite Kelly’s uninterrupted pre-season to date, that’s enough to swing the argument back in Fyfe’s favour, given the evenness in scoring power.
THE VERDICT: Fyfe. There’s risk in both, sure, but there’s reason to doubt Kelly’s durability more, especially given the Giants’ need for Kelly to be firing come September.
Josh Dunkley (WB $632,400) v Marcus Bontempelli (WB $623,000)
Of the star-studded Bulldogs midfield, I’ve got Macrae at No. 1 after an unbelievably-consistent past two years.
But which one of his teammates comes next?
Firstly, with the addition of key-forward Josh Bruce and defender Alex Keath, who will allow Aaron Naughton to stay in attack, neither will have to play forward in 2020.
Bontempelli has done it sporadically over the past few seasons and Dunkley for the first six week of last year.
But, thankfully, coach Luke Beveridge didn’t persist with Dunkley in attack for long.
After a permanent move into the midfield in Round 7, the 190cm 22-year-old exploded, posting a SuperCoach ton in 14 of the next 16 matches, including a huge 202-point performance in Round 17.
If you remove the first six games of the season, when he failed to pass three figures as a forward, Dunkley’s average of 128 as a midfielder was bettered by only ruckmen Brodie Grundy and Max Gawn.
Josh Dunkley's first quarter:
— Western Bulldogs (@westernbulldogs) August 10, 2019
16 disposals
11 contested possessions
5 clearances
1 goal#AFLDonsDogs #MightyWest pic.twitter.com/6RbjJJ0RlI
Bontempelli spent more time in the midfield last season, too, and his numbers spiked as a result.
The 23-year-old, who averaged 104 points per game in 2018, passed the 130-point mark in seven games and added 11 points to his SuperCoach average.
And Bontempelli could improve that number – which has been in excess off three figures since his debut season – again, as a full-time midfielder in 2020.
You could actually start all three this year, given they finished last season as the second (Macrae), fifth (Dunkley) and sixth-ranked (Bontempelli) SuperCoach players in the game.
Their combined averages – 123, 116 and 115 – make them the 10th-best midfield trio since 2003.
Only a number of champion Geelong, Collingwood, Hawthorn and St Kilda combinations have rated better in the past 17 years.
But if you’re splitting these two, along with Dunkley’s ceiling, it probably comes down to Matt de Boer in Round 3 and 13.
The Giants tagger has shutdown Bontempelli in their past two meetings, restricting him to scores of 90 and 84.
And that might be enough to keep Dunkley ahead by the year’s end.
THE VERDICT: Dunkley. It isn’t much, but it’s enough.
Tim Kelly (WC $561,800) v Rory Sloane (Adel $558,300) v Tim Taranto (GWS $555,900) v Stephen Coniglio (GWS $549,500)
The four standout selections in the mid-$500k bracket all have the potential to outdo the average their price suggests.
Like the Crows, Sloane’s 2019 was underwhelming. And that’s probably an understatement.
But he still posted 14 SuperCoach tons, six of them in excess of 120.
After adding 23 points to his average in 2018, Taranto, an all-round statistical beast, increased it again – from 89 to 102 – in just his third year in the game in 2019.
And his 143 points on grand final day was the second-most of any player.
His teammate, Coniglio, who hasn’t played since hurting his knee in Round 17 against the Tigers, is priced at an average of 101.
But if you take out the zero he scored in that injury-affected game, the figure increases to 108 – the mark he set in 2018.
But it’s Kelly, whose ability around goal sets him apart from most other midfielders in the competition, who might climb the most.
The mature-age revelation rates elite for goals, goal assists and shots-at-goal per game, booting 24 majors and playing a direct hand in 18 others in 2019.
These numbers saw the 24-year-old post SuperCoach tons in 12 of his 22 home-and-away matches last season, but he can be even better at the Eagles.
He’ll have Nic Naitanui – who is a huge upgrade on the inconsistent and ever-changing Geelong ruck brigade – hitting to him at the centre bounce, as well as one of the game’s best defensively-minded midfielders Elliot Yeo there to support.
And on the spread, Kelly will have two of the AFL’s finest field-kicks, Shannon Hurn and Lewis Jetta, looking for him on the rebound.
THE VERDICT: Kelly from Sloane, Coniglio and Taranto. They all have upside, but if you’re shopping around at the price point, Kelly might be your best buy.
Tom Mitchell (Haw $630,900) – Yes or No?
“The plan at this point is that he’ll be ready to play some time in the pre-season games and be ready for round one.”
With those comments from Hawthorn assistant coach Sam Mitchell, the task of ignoring the Brownlow Medallist, who averaged 129 points per game in 2018, to start with became a fraction harder.
But while Mitchell is priced at an average of 116 and he might be there in Round 1 against the Lions, even if his game-time is limited only slightly in the opening weeks, his price could fall.
Sure, he might still yet make a compelling case over the next month, but there might be more value – and points – in spending your money on another premium midfielder to start.
But you do need to begin working out how you will be getting Mitchell in.
THE VERDICT: No. Not to start with. I think.
Dan Hannebery (StK $417,000) - Yes or No?
In 2016, Hannebery tallied more disposals than any other player in the competition, recording his second-consecutive SuperCoach season average of 113 or more.
Fast forward to 2018 and in his final year at the Swans, the three-time All-Australian limped through a season that saw him play just 14 games and fail to win more than 18 disposals in seven of them.
To begin with, 2019 wasn’t much better either.
Hannebery didn’t make his St Kilda debut until Round 14 and was sidelined again after two matches.
The 28-year-old returned to play the final three home-and-away games, but it was a frustrating first season at the Saints, to say the least.
But in those five appearances, the hard-running left-footer posted scores of 96, 65, 122, 94 and 103.
Despite averaging 95 points or more in six of the past seven years, Hannebery is priced at an average of 77 in 2020.
But is he worth the risk?
After he broke his foot tripping on a small set of stairs in October, during his holiday break – yes, really – it was a definite no.
Now, after resuming full training in January and with the club expecting Hannebery to take part in the Marsh Community Series, it’s just a no.
But I can’t be sure that stance won’t change again come March.
THE VERDICT: No. Some will say this is a calculated risk worth taking. And they might have a case, but SuperCoach is stressful enough as it is. Pick a rookie or find the cash.
Matt Rowell (GC $207,300) or bottom-price rookie?
Matt Rowell. The end.
Originally published as KFC SuperCoach 2020: The Phantom’s verdict on the lineball calls in the midfield
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