Have KFC SuperCoach’s much-maligned mid-pricers become the new cash cows?
Several popular rookies have been axed ahead of Round 4. Who should KFC SuperCoaches jump on to relieve their rookie woes? Our experts reveal the best candidates, plus thedebutants to keep tabs on this weekend.
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Are mid-pricers the new cash generation kings?
This season has already thrown up its fair share of quirks are one of them is that mid-pricers have become more useful than ever, providing the benefits of on-field scoring and helping our team values soar.
The prime example has Carlton ruckman Marc Pittonet, who has skyrocketed in price after consecutive 130-plus scores — one of those against ruck behemoth Max Gawn.
If he continues this trajectory, he could be $500,000 in a month.
SCROLL DOWN TO SEE THE TOP 10 ROOKIES FOR ROUND 4
#supercoach Price Projection* - Marc Pittonet
— Brice Mitchell (@bricemitchell) June 13, 2020
2019Av 73 (2g)
R2Price $236.2k
R2BE 45
R2Score 134
ProjScore 100
Projected Prices
R3:$236k->$301k (+$65k)
R4:$301k->$373k (+$73k)
R5:$373k->$412k (+$38k)
R6:$412k->$440k (+$28k)
R7:$440k->$460k (+$20k)
R8:$460k->$474k (+$15k) https://t.co/IioY7TvoGm
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Several other mid-pricers have also provided lucrative cash grabs including former Tiger Dan Butler (+$109,900) Magpies playmaker Josh Daicos (+$85,900) and Dockers wingman Brett Bewley (+$60,000).
Each of these players started the season more expensive than rookie hero Matt Rowell — currently the sixth-ranked scorer of 2020 after three career games.
In this shortened season, getting cheapies that will rise in price quickly and give you optimal scoring along the way is even more crucial.
STEPPING STONES
Marc Pittonet ($316,800, RUCK)
Average: 135.5 BE: -90
It’s not too late to jump on the Pittonet train. Then once he plateaus in a few weeks you can sideways him to a forward premium. Voila. Another big score is on the cards up against Tom Bellchambers, who gave up 144 points to Swans big man Callum Sinclair in his last match. A 100-point total would see Pittonet shoot above $400,000, making a trade from axed Giant Sam Jacobs looking like an attractive move. For those already with two ruck spots, having Darcy Cameron or Charlie Comben enables you to upgrade a forward rookie to him.
Dan Butler ($344,500, FWD)
Average: 102.7 BE: -45
Remarkably, Dan Butler has the third lowest breakeven going into Round 4. Butler has been a revelation up forward at the Saints, ranking first for tackles, score involvements and third for SuperCoach points and goals at the club in the first three rounds. While trading in mid-pricers is always a risk, particularly those who are small forwards, Butler shapes as a promising short term investment.
Darcy Fort ($264, 800, FWD)
Average: 94 BE: 8
Fort was smashed by Sam Jacobs in Round 1 and managed a 94-point return. Rhys Stanley took his place thereafter but he has suffered a medial ligament injury, making Fort a prime stepping stone candidate if named. He will struggle against Max Gawn this weekend but like Pittonet, his role is favourable for SuperCoach.
Tom Doedee ($294,400, DEF)
Average: 76 BE: 16
While he struggled in his first game back, Tom Doedee was one of the Crows’ best in their horror loss to Gold Coast. Doedee tallied 20 disposals, eight marks and 113 points, with his elite intercept game coming to the fore. He is still priced favourable at $294,400 and a trade from underperforming defender Dan Houston looks like a solid play.
POSSIBLE SCENARIO
This is one for the bold SuperCoach. A trade from Lachie Whitfield (202 break-even) to Dan Butler (breakeven -45) will net you almost $200,000, which is crazy given Butler could be at the same price as Whitfield in a fortnight’s time. If you then look to bring Whitfield BACK in for Butler, it could be a sideways trade or even a small downgrade. You wouldn’t do it any other season, but we have plenty of trades up our sleeve.
BUBBLE BOYS
Marlion Pickett — the most popular player in SuperCoach — and Harley Bennell have thrown a spanner in the works for many teams, with both cash cows omitted ahead of Round 4
Add ousted ruck/forward Darcy Cameron and injured Sam Sturt and some sides will be struggling to field 22 players.
Luckily there are some reinforcements in the wings, but the candidates aren’t as strong as they were ahead of Round 3.
DAN BATTEN’S TOP 10
1. Trent Rivers (Melbourne) - $117,300 DEF-MID
Average: 62
Rivers caught the eye in his debut with his run and carry off halfback, features the Demons’ defence lacked last season. Should continue to get opportunity and his DEF-MID status could prove to be handy to swing with Brandon Starcevich. The standout Round 4 rookie candidate.
2. Tom Williamson (Carlton) - ($146,300, DEF)
Average: 53 BE: 4
A cash cow as far back as 2017, averaging 49.9 across 15 games, the injury-plagued defender should better those numbers this season. Williamson should have a consistent place in the Carlton line-up with Nic Newman sidelined for the remainder of the season, but don’t expect reliable scoring.
3. Stephen Hill (Fremantle) - ($190,600, DEF/FWD)
Average: N/A
It is difficult to trust the perenially injured Stephen Hill, who was a late withdrawal last week with a corked calf. Hill is certainly a risk bringing in a week early but he brings the potential of rock-solid scoring at an irresistable price. For SuperCoaches avoiding a donut or worried about Curtis Taylor or Max King producing a stinker, he is worth entertaining a week early. A useful swing with DEF/FWD compatriot Jarrod Brander.
4. Darcy Fort (Geelong) - ($264,800, FWD)
Average: 94 BE: 8
As above. Reliable scoring and should have job security at least in the short term. But match-ups against Max Gawn, Jarrod Witts, Rowan Marshall and Brodie Grundy aren’t exaclty a walk in the park.
5. William Hamill (Adelaide) - ($123,900, DEF)
Average: 40 BE: 8
Hamill stepped in for his debut in difficult circumstances and was solid, winning nine possessions. Should retain his spot in the developing Crows side after defender Wayne Milera’s injury setback, but Williamson looks to be a better option.
6. Tom Green ($166,800, MID)
Average: 41 BE: 23
The contested beast has been recalled but as we know with GWS in the past (Jackson Hately anyone?) they cannot be trusted with rookies. Named on the bench so it’d be a roll of the dice to bring him in. His Marsh Series ton is worth remembering, though.
7. Lachie Ash (GWS) - ($193,800, DEF/MID)
Average: 40 BE: 36
Ash showed promising signs early but was unable to replicate his promising scoring from the Marsh Series. Has managed to hang onto his pot but with Isaac Cumming on the outer his job security is unfavourable — as his is inflated price tag. His pre-season showed he can be a capable scorer.
8. Caleb Serong (Fremantle) - ($175,800, MID)
Average: N/A
The top-10 draftee will get his chance against the Gold Coast and he is sure to bring plenty of excitement to the table. Serong shone in a Marsh Series game, scoring 60 points in just 57 per cent game-time — but this was without Nat Fyfe and Michael Walters. It will be interesting to see what his midfield/forward split will be, and it’d be unwise to take a punt on him this week.
9. Jack Mahony (North Melbourne) - ($117,300, MID/FWD)
Average: N/A
The buzzing small forward/midfielder featured in the pre-season and will make his debut against the Hawks along with fellow cash cow Tristan Xerri ($123,900, RUC/FWD). Mahony could be in and out but is another to keep tabs on in Round 4.
10. Sam Philp (Carlton) - ($123,900, MID)
Average: N/A
The Blues have big wraps on the speedy youngster, jumping the queue in order to snare Sam Philp in last year’s draft. It’s unclear whether he will play up forward or through the middle, meaning it is best to wait a week before jumping on.
OTHERS TO WATCH IN ROUND 4: Shane McAdam - $123,900 (Adelaide), Tristan Xerri - $123,900, RUC/FWD (North Melbourne), Billy Frampton (Adelaide) - ($165,400, FWD)
TIM MICHELL’S BUBBLE BOY RANKINGS
1. Darcy Fort
2. Trent Rivers
3. Stephen Hill
4. Tom Williamson
5. Tom Green
6. Caleb Serong
7. Archie Smith
8. Kozzie Pickett
9. Billy Frampton
10. Sam Philp
Tim’s verdict:
Slim pickings ahead of Round 4 after last week’s bonanza.
Trent Rivers already features in more than 40 per cent of teams, although the postponed Melbourne-Essendon match kept him at his starting price.
That’s a huge win for those who overlooked him last week but want to take advantage of his DPP status.
His teammate Harley Bennell has more scoring upside but has been left out this week.
He’ll still beat his base price in Round 5 if you’re tempted to take the risk after he scored 59 in 50 per cent game time against Carlton.
Stephen Hill comes with the same injury issues but will be hard to overlook at less than $200,000 and with DEF-FWD swing.
Like Bennell he’s probably going to be managed throughout the year.
Geelong big man Darcy Fort rocketed to No. 1 after news Rhys Stanley has suffered a medial ligament sprain.
Fort has a break even of eight after he was the Cats’ preferred ruckman in Round 1 and scored 94 SuperCoach points.
He’s only in 0.7 per cent of teams but that number will jump significantly if Stanley is projected to miss two weeks or more.
Beyond that trio, another player with a history of injury problems — Carlton’s Tom Williamson — is the next best rookie.
Williamson won’t be a huge scorer but he has reasonable job security after coming into the Blues team for Nic Newman, who suffered a long-term injury.
Caleb Serong is highly rated but at an elevated price and mid-only status you can afford to play it safe and assess his role for the Dockers.
Archie Smith has never been a big scorer but could generate money if Stefan Martin remains sidelined.
Be warned, Brisbane’s injury list has him slated to return in 1-2 weeks.
Tom Green is back but will have shaky job security all season, but at least it’s some reward if he’s been stuck on your bench.
Billy Frampton would be a real throw at the stumps and Sam Philp is likely to play as a pressure forward.
WHAT TO DO WITH ROOKIE OUTS?
Sam Sturt ($152,200, FWD) Average: 55.1
BE: -24
Sam Sturt had donuts to halftime before suffering an ankle injury. He managed to come back on but the damage was already done for his 53,000 owners. The Dockers forward appears unlikely to replicate his 100-point outing in Round 1 and is set to spend a month on the sidelines, meaning he is worth trading.
VERDICT: Trade.
Marlion Pickett ($201,500, MID) Average: 60.3
BE: 28
Some SuperCoaches like number cruncher Fantasy Freako read the tea leaves after two poor outings from the Grand Final hero. Scores of 90-plus in that game and in Round 1 illustrate his immense scoring potential, and he could be back soon.
VERDICT: Hold
Darcy Cameron ($147,400, RUCK/FWD) Average: 50.5
BE: -17
Darcy Cameron (two disposals, 28 points) struggled to get his hands on the footy with five tackles saving him from a nightmare score. Mason Cox has ousted him after clunking 13 marks in their most recent scratch match, but Cameron will serve as a useful loophole option who can sit in the ruck or the forward line.
VERDICT: Hold.
53,558 #SuperCoach teams upon hearing Sam Sturt is out for 3-5 weeks after one price rise. pic.twitter.com/zUvh06gS5p
— SuperCoach AFL (@Supercoach) June 23, 2020
Tom Berry ($137,800, FWD) Average: 39.5
BE: 0
Tom Berry’s gutsy mark in his debut earned him plenty of plaudits but he managed just four touches against the Eagles. His breakeven remains low so there’s incentive to keep him, but his second score is probably a greater reflection of his output.
VERDICT: Trade
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Originally published as Have KFC SuperCoach’s much-maligned mid-pricers become the new cash cows?
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