Five starting forward line strategies for SuperCoach 2019

The forward line is shaping as the toughest position in SuperCoach for 2019. What’s your plan of attack? Here are five selection strategies and the risks and rewards of each. SAMPLE TEAMS

The forward line is shaping as the toughest position in SuperCoach for 2019.

The backline is overflowing with top-end talent and mid-price value, the biggest problem in the midfield is fitting in all the premiums and quality rookies, and the ruck is easy (assuming you’re prepared to pay $1.4 million for a starting duo).

Up forward it’s a different story. Patrick Dangerfield (66 per cent) and Isaac Heeney (47 per cent) are locked into most teams, then it’s a lottery.

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The next most popular forwards are rookies Chris Burgess, Ben Cavarra and Matthew Parker.

This could be an indication of a lack of premium and mid-price options, or coaches spending all their salary cap before they get to the forward line.

Neither situation is ideal going into the season. Much better to have a plan of attack then find the players that fit your structure.

If you’re not sure where to start, here are five forward line strategies you could employ this season. As with our analysis of other positions, players listed here can be interchanged with others of a similar price (the structure is what’s important), and you can assume the sample teams listed below all feature two basement-priced rookies on the bench ($123,900 or cheaper).

1. LOAD UP WITH DPPs

The highest-scoring forwards are often midfielders who spend enough time in the forward line to earn dual-position status from Champion Data.

Picking them effectively allows you to pick extra high-scoring midfielders in the forward line, avoiding key-position players who’s scoring is much more unpredictable (exhibit A is Lance Franklin’s last five games of last season: 52, 178, 96, 161, 16)

DPPs also maximise flexibility, allowing you to swing players between lines to cover injuries and late outs without using a trade. DPP rookies are especially useful but remember to stick one on the bench in the midfield to open up the move.

The only serious downside to this approach is the high cost and uncertainty around player roles. Isaac Heeney has been promised extra midfield time before, will it happen in 2019? And Toby McLean’s scoring dried up when Luke Beveridge opted to play him as a forward in the second half of last season. Your guess is as good as ours when it comes to his plans for this season.

What a loaded SuperCoach forward line could look like.

2. ROOKIE ATTACK

This approach appears to be very common, but we’re not sure if that’s by accident or design.

If you go into the season with a rookie-heavy forward line you are saving a lot of cash to spend in the midfield and ruck. But it comes with significant risks.

Picking a line-up like the one below requires five forward rookies, including two on the bench. But you want all those players to be playing to increase in value and provide cover for on-field stars.

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Unfortunately, there isn’t a long queue of rookies putting up their hands for selection in the early rounds. Shane McAdam is in 8 per cent of teams but hasn’t appeared at all in the pre-season, while Bulldog Ben Cavarra is the 11th most popular selection but only played in round two of the JLT Series.

Forward rookies are also notoriously unreliable scorers, relying on goals to score points. Liam Ryan, one of the most popular forward rookies last year, scored 115 in Round 2 last year and four scores under 50 in his first six games.

In other words, it’s very risky!

What a rookie attack SuperCoach forward line could look like.

3. RUCK INSURANCE

This strategy gives you some back-up in the ruck if you want to take a risk on

a cheaper ruckman, including Shane Mumford, who we know will be missing for the

first two rounds.

It requires selecting a dual-position ruck/forward in your forward line and a DPP as your third ruck.

This strategy only worth it if you believe the forward DPP is worth a spot as a starting forward in his own right, otherwise you’re sacrificing too many points each week.

The one DPP you can make a good case for is Port Adelaide’s Justin Westhoff, who averaged 101 last year. That was a career-high, but he has been a reliable scorer for years — averaging 85-plus since 2013. He also never misses a game.

To activate the switch, put Mumford on the bench and swap your rookie ruck DPP (like Eagle Patrick Bines) into the forward line, with Westhoff moving into the ruck. You’ll then need a playing bench rookie to cover Westhoff in the forward line — having cover for a Mumford type will help you avoid losing too many points when he doesn’t play, but you’re effectively replacing him with a forward bench player so it’s still a decent hit to your scoring potential.

This starting strategy is of obvious benefit during Mumford’s ban, but also a big bonus in the byes when Westhoff is available in Round 12 when Brodie Grundy, Max Gawn and Stef Martin are all missing.

What a ruck insurance SuperCoach forward line could look like.

4. MID-PRICE MADNESS

If you don’t trust any of the premium forwards (Patrick Dangerfield aside — he’s a given), you can save money by picking a suite of mid-priced players.

The money saved could allow you to get an extra player with top-line scoring potential, covering you against putting unreliable rookies on the field. It also frees up cash to spend in other positions.

Forwards are unpredictable anyway, so why not take a punt? Mid-price selections only need a couple of good games in a row to spike in price, when you can trade them out at a tidy profit — and the best way to do that is with a bag of goals.

However, this approach faces the same issue as mid-pricers everywhere — it’s so hard to pick the good ones and you need them all to average 100-plus for this to really pay off.

Injuries or uninterrupted pre-seasons add extra risk to the forward line mid-price crop this year — all those red and white stripes are a major red flag!

What a mid-price madness SuperCoach forward line might look like.

5. GUNS AND ROOKIES

The classic selection strategy in any position might be the best option up forward given the issues with the other approaches listed above.

It allows you to spread your cash between players most likely to punch out biggest scores with best rookies who have the best chance of scoring well and rising in value to fund your trades.

You’re more likely to get top-six forwards from the start of the year, minimising trades, and you avoid mid-price risks — which could be a smart move if you’re taking a few in the backline (Brodie Smith, Nic Newman and Co) and midfield (Tom Liberatore, Brad Crouch, Anthony Miles).

What a guns and rookies SuperCoach forward line could look like.

Originally published as Five starting forward line strategies for SuperCoach 2019