Dossy’s Double Dozen: Top premiums and PODs for the run home
These are the names to target with your final trades. SuperCoach expert Dos breaks down the numbers to name the best scorers for the run home, plus some juicy PODs.
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Dossy’s Double Dozen is back.
Version 3.0 of my SuperCoach ‘Best 22’ (plus two extra to make the name work) is here to help with your final trades of the season.
Let’s face it, most of us have somewhere between 3-6 trades left at this stage of the season. You are not going to be able to get everyone in this list – that’s not the point!
The Dub Doz is purely here as a guide for your final 1-2 upgrades of the season, if you take my word on who I think will perform best over the next nine rounds.
This time, I’ve broken it down in more detail, position-by-position, due to this being the finale of the Dub Doz for 2024.
We’re ignoring season-long averages, instead heavily relying on remaining fixtures, recent form, team game style, and match-up data.
I’ve also included a “23rd premium” for those looking for bench cover bargains, and some points of difference (POD) if you want to take a walk on the wild side.
Remember, above all else – trust your gut!
DEFENDERS
Nick Daicos and Harry Sheezel
Daicos and Sheezel are locked into the top six and are owned by almost every coach ranked inside the top 10 per cent. As they so often are compared to one another, these two can be paired at 1-2, with Daicos my projected No.1 defender from now until the end of the season.
Tags may come for Daicos every week from here, and to every one of his opponents – I wish you good luck. The Little Master 2.0 will continue to prove a nightmare match-up and put up big SuperCoach numbers. Meanwhile, Sheezel has well and truly adapted to a new role higher up the ground and is averaging 120 in his past five outings.
Jack Sinclair
Sinclair appears Randy Orton style “outta nowhere” into the top six defenders for the run home. After averaging 113.7 and 106.7 in his past two seasons, Sinclair weathered an early form slump following an injury-interrupted pre-season to average 115.4 in his past eight games.
Before the bye, Sinclair soared to new heights returning to his customary position across half-back – attending zero centre bounces for the first time since round 4, and scoring 147 and 135. The Saints’ fixture on the way home is eye-poppingly good with eight of nine games at Marvel Stadium, a venue that Sinclair has scored 110-plus on 18 occasions since 2022.
Luke Ryan
Fremantle has seemingly opted for a more attacking game style in their defensive 50 following the bye, using far fewer backwards kicks in their last two games – resulting in a dip in Luke Ryan’s output, per Fantasy Freako.
Fremantle's backward kicks in its last 3 games:
— Fantasy Freako (@FantasyFreako) June 24, 2024
27 vs Demons
5 vs Bulldogs
6 vs Suns
Luke Ryan ðŸ˜#SuperCoach#AFLFantasy
Does this continue or was it simply a temporary coaching adjustment based on opposition? I’m leaning towards the latter. Ryan retains his spot in the Dub Doz due to his massive ceiling if this returns to the norm.
Jordan Clark moves out of the Dub Doz and into a special mention primarily due to the heightened tag risk across the next two months – including potential dates with James Jordon, Alex Neal-Bullen, and Toby Bedford, defensive match-ups that suit him over Ryan on paper.
Dan Houston
Another solid season and a favourable run home for Houston sees him as a safe top-six defender for the final stretch. Games against St Kilda, Richmond and Melbourne are particular standouts as juicy match-ups for designated kickers like Dan.
Ryan Burton (one third of the Power’s preferred kick-in trio) is still 3-4 weeks away from returning, leaving Houston and Kane Farrell (the team’s leading kick-in artist) with a total mortgage on the goalsquare for some sneaky extra points for at least another few weeks to come.
Max Holmes
Holmes, come on down! An under-the-radar consistent scorer across the season, the 21-year-old looks ready to take his game to a new level in the back end of the season.
Used as a centre bounce midfielder across his past five games, Holmes is averaging 112.4 SuperCoach points – recording 59.6 per cent centre bounce attendances (CBAs) in that time, the highest five-week stretch of his career.
Already averaging 103.6 for the season, a reasonable fixture for inside mids to come, and Tom Stewart taking the bulk of attention from taggers, Holmes could be primed for a classic back-half season blitz.
23rd premium
Colby McKercher
Coming off 31 disposals in three quarters in the VFL, McKercher is a genuine top-six defender chance, let alone a 23rd premium, if he continues his form prior to injury.
The 19-year-old Tasmanian phenom was averaging 109.3 SuperCoach points in his three games leading up to his bone stress injury which ruled him out since round 9.
Trent Rivers
The chosen one to fill the gigantic hole left by Christian Petracca, Trent Rivers made the most of his opportunities in a career-high 80 per cent CBAs in round 15, scoring 131 SuperCoach points against North Melbourne.
Not typically a high disposal winner, Rivers will have to rely on high efficiency and peripheral stats to build that big a score on a week-to-week basis, but he could provide some spike scores worthy of a 23rd premium – and should improve with more exposure in the role.
PODs
Elliot Yeo
Yeo’s career-best form at 30 years young given his torrid injury history is still hard to believe, but he just keeps getting it done. He’s slightly above the ownership percentage I’d tend to deem a POD, but close enough to push you up the ranks if you’re up the pointy end (owned by 13.8 per cent of the top 1 per cent of coaches, according to SuperCoach Plus).
His time on ground (TOG) is pushing back into the 90-plus minute mark – including all of his last three games – which is promising for a huge run home. In six games with 90-plus minutes in 2024, Yeo is averaging 130.8 SuperCoach points.
Ed Richards
A surprise addition to the Bulldogs midfield in Tom Liberatore’s absence, Richards may have found a permanent home as an inside midfielder. Aside from one concussion-affected game where Richards played just 44 per cent TOG, he recorded a ludicrous 87.3 per cent CBAs in four Libba-less games.
Given the Dogs are loaded and Libba is back, Richards won’t be able to relish this immense amount of inside stoppage exposure, but he is still being used at centre bounced and rolling into stoppage to use his elite left peg on the outside.
MIDFIELDERS
Marcus Bontempelli
A SuperCoach savant and second-half specialist, Bontempelli has scores of 162 and 186 in his last three, enjoys a North Melbourne match-up twice before season’s end, and last but not least – he’s the Bont.
Luke Davies-Uniacke
NORTHBALL has arrived! LDU has unlocked beast mode post-bye, as is tradition. Averaging 136.3 SuperCoach points in his three games since the Kangaroos’ bye, Davies-Uniacke does not look like slowing down as the Roos find a rich vein of form.
Despite being just 25-years-old, his body will be a question mark given he’s never played a full season and has a recent history of burning coaches with late outs. It’s a risk I’m willing to take with this hot form – the Kangaroos have a great run home for inside mids and LDU averaged 121 post-bye just last season.
Caleb Serong
A great fixture to finish the home-and-away season for the Dockers should ensure that Serong can maintain his standing as a top-end SuperCoach midfielder. Going under 100 on just three occasions in 2024, the Dockers’ co-vice captain has a monster ceiling to go alongside a pristine record of consistency.
Zach Merrett
The Bombers skipper is having some sort of season, but then again, doesn’t he always? In the spotlight more than ever in the midst of the Dons resurgence, Merrett has averaged more than 110 SuperCoach points each of the past five seasons.
Pushing his average to a career-high 118 points, despite opposition attention almost every week, Merrett should continue to tear up across the final nine rounds – even with a few tough tags on the schedule still to come.
Lachie Neale
Neale has bounced back from an underwhelming … Brownlow Medal year? Under the radar in SuperCoach due to the Opening Round bye situation, he’s been back on our radar for a few weeks now – and it’s not too late … if you have the money and/or trades!
The Lions’ run home is pretty reasonable for inside midfielders. However, our major concern (and it is a big concern) is the tag. Neale faces Marcus Windhager – who held him to 70 points in round 14 – again in round 21, and also faces match-ups against potential tags in James Jordon, Toby Bedford, and Max Michallaney. That’s four of nine with a risk – and far more than ideal.
However, his role, ceiling, and five more games at the Gabba – where he averages 120 across his career – are just too good to ignore.
Adam Treloar
Just like Liberatore the year before him, Adam Treloar is having a SuperCoach career-year at the Dogs at age 31. He avoids tags, absolutely racks up the pill, crashes in for contested possessions, tackles, bobs up for the odd goal, and uses the ball well enough not to burn you.
Even with Liberatore back in the side before the Dogs bye, Treloar maintained his high centre bounce usage and time on ground. In fact, he hasn’t dipped under 80 per cent for either CBAs or TOG since round 4.
Zak Butters
Tags, fines, and a Power outage with three losses in a row. You can tell Butters is fired up – and something tells me he’s going to respond in a big way in the weeks to come.
Similar to Neale, Butters will continue to face the brunt of opposition taggers on the journey home – including possible meetings with Windhager, Cincotta, and Jordon, to name a few – but he’s just too good at getting his hands dirty in the contest to be held down.
Given his visible frustration at times when getting attention – I do think he’s more of a risk of dropping some tag-affected floor scores than some of the midfielders higher on the list.
Errol Gulden
Can Gulden maintain a 110-plus average until the end of the season?
Before the Swans’ bye, Gulden was averaging 104.5 SuperCoach points through a combination of spike scores (149, 129, 131) and more moderate outings (77, 73, 82) in a somewhat unpredictable wing-mid role.
Will there be enough spike scores on the run home to warrant a spot in the top eight? I honestly don’t know, but his current post-bye 37.7 disposal average is way too good to ignore, as are his near 100 per cent TOG numbers week-to-week.
23rd premium
Connor Rozee
The captain of Port Adelaide is dirt cheap and provides great bench cover in case of an injury, suspension, or late out.
Rozee started the season averaging 116.6 points over the first five rounds and is capable of some big scores.
At $410,700 heading into round 16, he fits the ideal bill to be our 23rd premium to loop with another midfielder that may have a questionable ceiling out of your final eight.
PODs
Will Day
The Hawks are flying, have a great run home, and Day is averaging 120.6 in his past five games. Day hits all stat lines, uses the ball incredibly well, and is a classic inside-outside player – able to get busy in the contest then get used on the spread.
His price tag of $576,100 will scare plenty of coaches off, too, making him the perfect POD, at just 2 per cent owned, to charge up in the ranks if you’re after a bold move.
Rory Laird
The Crows are struggling to find form and are chipping the ball around in defence to stem the bleeding. Already a bottom-five team for metres gained per disposals, the Crows have been dead last in the past five matches, per Wheelo Ratings.
When you combine this stat with kicking efficiency – where Adelaide ranks second in the competition over the same stretch – it becomes clear that the Crows are opting for the short, safe option above all else.
Enter Rory Laird. A two-time All Australian defender fresh off a 141 point outing playing back in defence, enjoying this SuperCoach-friendly chip-mark game style while making way for Izak Rankine and sudden tag lord Max Michalanney in the Crows new-look midfield.
Tim Taranto
Taranto is already having massive midfield exposure and time on ground immediately upon returning to the team – because the Tigers DESPERATELY need him.
His efficiency is always a question mark, but he is the only guy at Richmond capable of racking up huge possession numbers and should be free to do so for the remainder of the season.
I contemplated putting Taranto at M8 but felt it was a bit too spicy, considering he’s never averaged more than 107 SuperCoach points in a season and Jacob Hopper and Dion Prestia are close to returning.
George Wardlaw
The sample size is too limited to say an all-out back half breakout is a guaranteed, but I might just give you one anyway. Wardlaw is thriving as the Roos finally fulfil their potential a little later than Shinboners would have probably hoped for this season.
He is averaging 119.3 in his last three games, 105 in his last five, and enjoys one of the softer midfield schedules for the remainder of the season. The breakout train is about to leave the station, and he’s still $506.4k.
RUCKS
Brodie Grundy
The bounce-back has exceeded expectations, to say the least. If you’re like me and traded Grundy at his early bye thinking he’d made some coin and done his job, it’s been a painful watch.
He boasts a ridiculous career average of 131.3 SuperCoach points playing at the SCG, where the Swans still have five remaining games left on the fixture.
Max Gawn
A quieter patch for the Melbourne skipper in his past three games but he still holds a five-round average of 126 and is the highest-averaging player in SuperCoach heading into round 16.
If anyone is going to silence the Demons’ critics, it’s Max Gawn. He has responded time and time again off the back of Dees losses with consistently monstrous ceiling scores unmatched by anyone in the modern game not named Bontempelli.
POD
Tom De Koning
As a TDK owner, I really wanted to put him in the top two. The threat of a Marc Pittonet inclusion is the major worry, considering a few bigger bodied ruckmen are incoming on the Blues’ schedule – starting this week with Toby Nankervis.
If Michael Voss decides to roll TDK solo ruck, I think he is a top-two ruck from here. He’s playing as an extra midfielder, taking marks around the ground, laying big tackles, and basically all of his possessions are contested.
The biggest drawcard to rocking TDK in your line-up is his unmatched confidence. His swagger is on another level at the moment and it seems he wants the keys to the engine on a permanent basis.
FORWARDS
Sam Flanders
Flanders has delivered on his promising end to 2023, not scoring under 100 SuperCoach points for the entire season so far.
Whether it’s half-back or midfield (where he played the final quarter for the Suns last week), Flanders will be the best (or second best) forward-eligible player on the run home.
Isaac Heeney
It finally happened. Heeney has been promising more midfield time just about every season since his draft year and inevitably ends up inside forward 50 – until now.
In his first full season as a full-time midfielder, the blond bombshell is the third-highest averaging player in SuperCoach. He won’t be slowing down any time soon – and given his forward craft, Heeney probably one of the least taggable of any midfielder not named Marcus Bontempelli.
Dayne Zorko
Father Time was undefeated until he met Dayne Zorko. The 35-year-old is having a resurgent season in a half-back role for the Lions while being blessed with the MID/FWD tag in 2024.
The role is too good to ignore in a year where forwards have remained thin from start to finish; DPP truly didn’t save us this time. If you haven’t jumped on Zorko yet, there is still time.
The former Lions skipper has some ceiling scores left in him on the journey home, including another famed match-up with the Saints in round 21 – a repeat of the game where he cracked the SuperCoach ton by halftime and finished on 141.
Izak Rankine
Rankine is about to explode. The Crows are struggling, their midfield needs some oomph, and it’s time – Rankine needs to be the one to take the burden.
Rankine’s tank is underrated. In 2024, he’s backing up his 90 per cent TOG in 2023 (playing exclusively as a forward) with similar numbers, despite a big jump in midfield minutes.
With no Matt Crouch for the rest of the season, fresh off his bye Izak will have to shoulder the midfield load – alongside Jordan Dawson – more than ever before, and SuperCoaches with the purse to afford him will enjoy the ride.
Zac Fisher
It’s been a shaky ride. Many of us would have started Zac Fisher. Many more of us would have traded out Zac Fisher … and a handful of us (including me) would have started Fisher, traded out Fisher, then traded in Fisher – all in the span of the first 10-12 rounds.
If you didn’t get back on board, you probably should. Colby McKercher may very well crack back into the side soon, but there’s plenty of pill to go around, and we’ve seen the half-back slot at North Melbourne be one of the most SuperCoach-friendly roles in recent memory.
Luke Jackson
Sean Darcy is back and it’s hurting Jackson, but I still think he’s the guy to round out our forward line in the last nine weeks of SuperCoach.
Ignoring the ruck cover he provides (this list is about pure point scoring – not DPP convenience), Jackson has shown a monster ceiling not achievable by even some of the very best forward-eligible players.
In the past month, Darcy attended 69.8 per cent of centre bounces to Jackson’s 30.5 per cent – but Fremantle have played Max Gawn, Tim English, and Jarrod Witts in that span; better suited to Darcy’s expertise.
I’ve kept him at F6 for two reasons:
Whether that’s in-game or a week off, I don’t see a scenario where Jackson doesn’t help shoulder the load more than he has in the past month, and we know what he can do with more time around the ball. Even with 2-3 spike scores of his calibre, he will put up top-six numbers from here. Admittedly, that’s a hypothetical – we can’t bank on that.
Also, Fremantle’s run home for key forwards has some seriously cushy matchups, meaning even if Jackson is playing as a pure forward, he’ll have the chance to put up some big numbers, regardless. Three of Fremantle’s next nine match-ups feature West Coast, Geelong, and Melbourne – three of the top-five easiest teams for key forwards to score SuperCoach points against in the past five games – including the top two easiest, according to DFS Australia.
Apologies for the essay, F6 is tough!
23rd premium
Charlie Curnow
I’m cheating and putting Curnow here as essentially my B-Side F6. His price is still in the range of most players we are considering for bench cover, and the Blues’ run home for key forwards is tantalising.
Charlie will no doubt kick some monster bags against softer opposition to continue his charge for a third Coleman Medal, together with his usual two-plus goals a week against even the toughest of defenders.
Jy Simpkin
Healthy (for now) and playing in a rampaging North Melbourne midfield, the Roos co-skipper is available at a tick over $400k. Do I have faith he’ll continue scoring tons? Absolutely not. But he doesn’t need to score with consistency to provide valuable bench coverage.
Simpkin has averaged over 90 three times in his career and if he pops for another ton or two on the run home and scores more than the likes of Billy Dowling, Bruce Reville, Joe Richards (if he’s back), or even Kynan Brown from here – then you’re one step ahead if there’s a late out.
Harley Reid
Young GOAT, anyone? Fresh off a couple of weeks on the sidelines, Reid could be the perfect loophole play if you have a spare $459.2k in the bank.
We’ve seen his ceiling – he was basically built for SuperCoach – and the Eagles line-up is the strongest it’s been all year long. If he doesn’t cop a tag (crazy to think that in his first year), his spike scores could be well worth a loophole role as your F7.
POD
Jye Caldwell
Caldwell is finally showing us what he can do. A season-high 75 per cent CBAs last week saw Caldwell hit his second-highest score for the season, but can he be trusted as a POD for the run home?
Owned by just 4 per cent of coaches (although over 2000 are currently bringing him in this week), Caldwell’s five-round average of 96 is very tempting. Darcy Parish remains the only real question mark.
Parish is listed as three weeks away on the Bombers’ injury report. But in games where Parish has played, Caldwell scores are actually OK – going at 86.9 points across seven games, and that includes an injury-affected 58 in just 49 per cent TOG.
Wait, so he averaged 100 WITH Parish? Never mind that question mark. It’s probably just Brad Scott – who can’t decide if Setterfield, Perkins, Stringer, Durham, or Caldwell is going to miss out on bulk midfield minutes week-to-week.
But that only might limit Caldwell’s ceiling, his floor is safe regardless of the role. He presents a safe POD option for the journey home, just don’t expect too many ceiling scores.
Dylan Moore
If gut feel was the only factor to picking the Double Dozen, Moore would have easily been in my top six.
Finals are in sight for the Hawks and it’s a sprint to the finish line. Moore is a high-TOG player getting career-high CBAs, has a high ceiling and some friendly matchups to come – with West Coast and Geelong in his next two, and Richmond and North to close out the season.
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Originally published as Dossy’s Double Dozen: Top premiums and PODs for the run home
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