Champion Data SuperCoach formguide: Trade and rookie tips for Round 10
DANGER or Dusty? One of the biggest SuperCoach questions of the pre-season is back with both available this week at a bargain price. Champion Data crunches the numbers to name the best trade and rookie choices.
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THE biggest dilemma facing SuperCoaches this round is whether to hold or trade the most selected midfielder in the competition — Tim Kelly.
He wasn’t the only Cat who struggled against Essendon on the weekend, finishing with a season-low 16 disposals, five contested possessions and one clearance. His 48 points were also 25 fewer than in any other match for the year, suffering his first price drop, albeit just $3300.
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Kelly has already made a healthy profit of $311,900 so he has more than fulfilled his role as a cash cow.
Fast-forward to Round 10 and Kelly now has a break-even score of 120 points, a tally he hasn’t reached all season. In saying that, he faces a Carlton side that concede the second-most points to midfielders.
Also in Kelly’s favour is that he returns to GMHBA Stadium, where he has scored 89, 106 and 115 points from his three games.
A move to teammate Patrick Dangerfield is a tempting one and will cost SuperCoaches $172,600 to jump ship.
Dustin Martin is an alternative to Dangerfield despite boasting a break-even score of 131 points. Martin has dropped to just $492,700 after notching his first ton last round (103 points vs. West Coast) since Round 4.
St Kilda, his opponent this week, has conceded the third-most points to midfielders behind Carlton and Gold Coast. Martin dominated against the Saints when he last played them in 2017, finishing with 36 disposals, 14 contested possessions, two goals and 146 points.
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ROOKIE WATCH
There isn’t a lot to get excited about with this round’s “bubble boys”, with the exception of Ed Phillips that is. He has to be the No. 1 trade-in target even after scoring 49 points last round against Collingwood.
Phillips still managed to win 19 disposals, but it was his errant kicking that had an adverse effect on his score, recording five ineffective kicks and one kick clanger.
With the Giants expected to swing the axe after a disappointing loss to North Melbourne, Isaac Cumming is on the chopping block after a game-low 16 points from 53 per cent game time. In fact, he had just two disposals and four points to his name at halftime. Even if he manages to keep his place in the side, Cumming may not be the ideal trade-in option.
With a lack of genuine trade options again this week, SuperCoaches have to go early on rookies, with Jordan Ridley, Jacob Heron, Bailey Rice and Tim Smith all showing something in their first outings for the season last round.
Ridley is the pick of the quartet, finishing with 25 disposals and 76 points from 79 per cent game time against Geelong. He found plenty of the ball on the outside and had 20 uncontested possessions, the third-most of any Bomber behind Brendon Goddard and David Zaharakis.
Heron has the bye in Round 10, which leaves Rice as the other defensive option. He had 17 disposals against Collingwood and hit the target with 83 per cent of his kicks, the equal second-best percentage of any Saint. He also won a team-high eight intercept possessions to cap off a solid debut.
The mature-age Smith is an option in the forward line, but his job security isn’t ideal. With Melbourne contending, one bad game could see him leave the team quicker than he came in. But he didn’t look out of place against Carlton, finishing with 18 disposals, two contested marks and six tackles.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Collingwood vs. Western Bulldogs
Scott Pendlebury has an outstanding record against the Western Bulldogs since 2012, scoring at least 130 points in four of six matches including 146 last season. Marcus Bontempelli scored 120 points when these sides last met in Round 1 last year.
Richmond vs. St Kilda
Trent Cotchin had dominated against bottom 10 opposition this season, averaging 112 points — ranked No. 1 at Richmond. Luke Dunstan has been St Kilda’s topscorer against top eight opponents with an average of 110 points.
Brisbane Lions vs. Sydney Swans
Stefan Martin ranks fourth in the competition for points scored among ruckmen with an average of 102 points. Callum Sinclair has taken the mantle of No. 1 ruck at the Swans and ranks third for points scored.
Geelong Cats vs. Carlton
Gary Ablett had a shocker last round against the Bombers, managing just 17 disposals, one clearance and 55 points. Marc Murphy returned from injury and scored 94 points in the heavy defeat to Melbourne.
GWS Giants vs. Essendon
A score of 107 points last round against North Melbourne wasn’t enough to stop Dylan Shiel from dropping by a further $7600 in value. Dyson Heppell led the Bombers’ charge against the Cats with 113 points, his best score since Round 1.
Hawthorn vs. West Coast
Jack Gunston had 16 disposals, two score assists, two goals and 96 points when the Hawks last played at Etihad Stadium in Round 5. Jack Darling booted four goals straight from 16 disposals in his last appearance at Etihad Stadium in Round 2.
Melbourne vs. Adelaide Crows
Tom McDonald is averaging 16 disposals, three goals and a career-high 107 points this season. Sam Jacobs has dropped off significantly, averaging just 13 disposals and 78 points, his fewest since 2010.
Fremantle vs. North Melbourne
Luke Ryan ranks seventh in the competition for points scored among permanent defenders with an average of 94 points. Scott D. Thompson has bounced back to average 85 points, his most since 2013.
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Originally published as Champion Data SuperCoach formguide: Trade and rookie tips for Round 10
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