Champion Data guru Fantasy Freako reveals his five Round 2 KFC SuperCoach trades
Stats guru Fantasy Freako has decided on his five KFC SuperCoach trades for Round 2, sacrificing a defensive favourite and a pre-season bolter. Plus, what did Champion Data’s number crunchers make of Round 1?
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There is genuine excitement in the KFC SuperCoach community ahead of football’s resumption.
All feelings associated with playing the game will be back.
The feeling of angst prior to teams being named on a Thursday night and the anguish felt after a premium had a stinker.
It won’t be long until they resurface.
Countering them is the elation of a rookie toning up, or a premium midfielder surpassing the 40-disposal mark.
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It’s all part of the game and it has been sorely missed.
As we prepare for the resumption, looking back at Round 1 is important, even though the sample size is rather small.
Shortened quarters were the biggest talking point in KFC SuperCoach, with the ruck department appearing to be the main beneficiary.
It may be a little premature to say that ruckmen will benefit the most, as the sample size is only one match.
But if we cast our minds back a few seasons ago it was the exact opposite.
Ruckmen weren’t scoring 100s in the early rounds, but then scoring picked up not long after.
So, it’s way too early to make a call either way.
Regardless, the season opener will always be remembered as the round of the ruckmen after 10 reached 100 points, led by Brodie Grundy’s 179-point haul against Western Bulldogs.
But it wasn’t the premiums that caught my eye, but more so the value picks.
In terms of raw match numbers, they were all down due to shortened games.
As for stoppage numbers (throw ins + ball ups), there were 45.6 per game in Round 1 — the
fewest we have had in a season opener since 2008.
But if we standardise that figure and base it on 2019 game time, the average of 57 stoppages was slightly below 60 from last season.
In trying to pinpoint why there was such a significant rise in scores for rucks, there are a couple of numbers that need to be highlighted, one of which was hitout-to-advantage rate.
The competition average for Round 1 was 32.5 per cent, a rise from 28.8 per cent in the corresponding round last year.
Contested marks was another statistic that spiked.
In 2019, ruckmen took a combined 17 between them in Round 1, compared to 22 in this season’s opener.
The fruitful Grundy-Max Gawn combination delivered once again, posting a combined score of 272 points, but that was largely on the back of Grundy’s return.
KFC SuperCoaches that opted for the cut-price combination of Sam Jacobs and Sam Naismith were rewarded with a combined tally of 255 points – just 17 fewer than the ‘big-two’.
Considering that the latter combination was $803,100 cheaper, opting for the cut-price option definitely paid dividends.
When it comes to analysing output, using points-per-minute can often paint a nice picture.
This measures the output of every player while on the ground and if we use that as a guide, Grundy’s 2.3 points per minute was clearly the highest of any ruckman, with Nic Naitanui not too far behind with 1.7 points.
The biggest surprises were Sam Jacobs and Ivan Soldo with 1.6 points per minute in third place, while Rory Lobb, Sam Naismith and Todd Goldstein rounded out the top-five with 1.4 points.
FANTASY FREAKO’S TRADE PLANS
SuperCoaches have been rewarded with five trades ahead of Round 2.
As always, plenty of thought needs to go into these, as the landscape of the season has changed after the long lay-off.
Player price changes will occur after Round 2, or after a player’s second game.
This is a significant change and it will have a huge impact on trading, especially from a cash cow point of view.
When looking at which players to trade in, player form goes right out the window!
Our decisions are likely to be dictated by money alone, that is, potential increases and decreases.
I made the mistake of starting Darcy MacPherson and Andrew Brayshaw in my forward line. Both struggled in the season opener and opting for Hugh Greenwood instead of MacPherson was the way to go.
But once again, it’s hindsight that comes to the fore.
If we take a close look at premiums in each position, the defenders underperformed, with just two of the top-15 priced players that featured in Round 1 reaching three figures – Shannon Hurn and Tom Stewart.
Midfielders performed much better, with nine players hitting 100 points, while in the forwards there were a total of eight.
In the rucks, three of the top-10 highest priced players tonned up.
When deliberating on what moves you’ll be making, remember, just because you have five trades up your sleeve doesn’t mean you have to use them all.
But most KFC SuperCoaches, including myself, will take the aggressive approach and use all five to ‘fix mistakes’ and get the balance right.
Below are the moves I have tentatively locked in ahead of Round 2:
OUT: Jake Lloyd
IN: Jeremy Howe
After just 17 disposals and 77 points, Jake Lloyd is set for a major price fall.
That’s not the only reason why I’m moving him on.
Known as the junk time specialist, Lloyd ranked 15th in the AFL for disposals in the time-on period of quarters in 2019.
With Jordan Dawson also in defence, Lloyd doesn’t have the same appeal at this stage.
Howe was a player I had earmarked as a value pick, but he didn’t make my team.
With the Magpies playing four key defenders in the season opener, Howe was able to play his natural game and float after being matched up on Sam Lloyd.
Howe had 25 disposals and 12 intercepts.
OUT: Andrew Brayshaw
IN: Brett Bewley
Brayshaw was sparingly used in Round 1, managing just 65 per cent game time — the
second-lowest of any player on the ground.
He started three of the four quarters on the bench and was used in a centre bounce rotation with Adam Cerra.
It’s not the role I was hoping for from Brayshaw so he’s out.
Bewley was always going to replace Bradley Hill on the wing.
Bewley won 18 of 20 disposals along the boundary line and he’s set to boom in price after his next match.
OUT: Lachlan Schultz
IN: Sam Sturt or Izak Rankine
After starting with James Cousins as a high-priced cash cow in 2019, I have fallen in
the same trap with Schultz. I stuck by Cousins last year, but I won’t be doing the same
with Schultz.
Teammate Sam Sturt is the clear standout replacement, but he’s under
an injury cloud ahead of the clash against the Lions.
Izak Rankine is the contingency plan should he make his AFL debut in Round 2.
OUT: Darcy MacPherson
IN: Patrick Dangerfield
The Suns underperformed as a team in Round 1.
MacPherson’s pre-season numbers were hard to ignore, but he failed to show up against the Power – scoring just 56 points.
With a score of 139 points needed to keep his price – he’s on the chopping block.
By moving Devon Smith into the forwards via DPP, I now have the opportunity to
bring Patrick Dangerfield in and by doing so, I’ll be overlooking Jack Viney.
Dangerfield has scored 106, 156, 156 and 187 points in that order in his most recent games against his upcoming opponents.
Adding to his appeal is that three of these games will be at GMHBA Stadium.
OUT: Dylan Roberton
IN: Darcy Byrne-Jones
Roberton had a shocker in his return to football – scoring just 26 points from eight disposals (three after half time).
He now has a break even of 73 points and he has to go.
Byrne-Jones is a player on the rise and his 114 points in Round 1 is testament to that.
He averaged 97 points from Round 15 onward last season and that includes a score of six points.
Take that score out and that average jumps to 108 over the same period.
MORE SUPERCOACH:
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How you could sign up for KFC SuperCoach now and still win $50,000 grand prize
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KFC SuperCoach: 10 point-of-difference picks that will set your team apart from the rest
Originally published as Champion Data guru Fantasy Freako reveals his five Round 2 KFC SuperCoach trades
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