Champion Data expert Fantasy Freako analyses SuperCoach breakout contenders

Every year several players come from the clouds to enjoy a breakout year. Predicting them can be a lottery, but you could land a SuperCoach gem if you know what you’re looking for. Champion Data’s expert names this year’s top contenders.

With every new season, there are several players that come from the clouds and enjoy a breakout year.

Picking them can be a lottery, but if you nail the right player at the start of the year it sets you up for a points windfall.

A player’s fourth season is usually when we see a significant spike in output, but there are plenty of examples of a player going boom in just his second year. Recently, the likes of Dustin Martin (+21 points), Marcus Bontempelli (+25), Nat Fyfe (+33) and Clayton Oliver (+41) have enjoyed significant second-year spikes.

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Last season it was Josh Dunkley (+35) who elevated his game to another level after a permanent move into the midfield in Round 14 in his third season. As a midfielder, he ranked seventh in the league for tackles and averaged 27 disposals, 10 contested possessions, four clearances and one score assist. On the flip side, Dunkley’s move proved to be end for Toby McLean as a SuperCoach option, as he reached 100 points in only two games from Round 14, after eclipsing that mark in eight of his first 10 matches. McLean was the second most-selected Mid/Fwd at the time behind only Isaac Heeney.

James Sicily (+32) was another player who improved his numbers significantly. He was a beacon in defence and was excellent at winning the ball back off the opposition, ranking second in the league for intercept possessions per game with 9.1, behind Alex Rance (10). Sicily averaged 104 points and dropped below 90 just three times. However, his poor discipline proved to be costly for SuperCoaches, missing Rounds 3 and 6 through suspension before an injury kept him out of the final six home-and-away rounds.

As we turn our attention to 2019, finding the next Dunkley or Sicily won’t best easy, but there is a plethora of players who fit the breakout criteria. The table below ranks all players aged 21 or below during the 2018 premiership season based on points per game. If we look at the highest scorer, it was Oliver who led the charge with a 114 average. In terms of breakouts, he has already enjoyed his, so who are the other candidates to consider?

Under-21 standouts in 2018

Player	Team	Age	Position	Games	SC av	2019 price
Clayton Oliver	Melb	21	Mid	25	114	$622,600
Tim Taranto	GWS	21	Mid	23	87	$481,600
Alex Witherden	Bris	20	Def	21	84	$455,000
Tom Doedee	Adel	21	Def	20	82	$446,200
Brayden Fiorini	GC	21	Mid	11	82	$442,200
Aaron Francis	Ess	21	Def	5	81	$350,900
Darcy Parish	Ess	21	Fwd/Mid	15	81	$436,100
Bailey Williams	WB	21	Def	14	81	$441,600
Wayne Milera	Adel	21	Def	19	80	$433,100
Jarrod Berry	Bris	21	Mid	21	80	$434,300
Brandan Parfitt	Geel	20	Fwd	19	79	$434,300
Jade Gresham	StK	21	Fwd	22	79	$429,600
Callum Mills	Syd	21	Def	9	79	$428,900
Sam Powell-Pepper	Port	21	Mid	16	78	$425,800
Brayden Sier	Coll	21	Mid	12	77	$435,000
Dan Houston	Port	21	Def	22	77	$420,500
Hugh McCluggage	Bris	20	Mid	22	76	$416,800
Jack Higgins	Rich	19	Fwd	20	75	$392,700
Sean Darcy	Frem	20	Ruck	7	74	$361,500
Zac Fisher	Carl	20	Fwd/Mid	17	72	$392,800
Andrew McGrath	Ess	20	Def/Mid	20	71	$384,300

TIM TARANTO

The stars have aligned for Taranto after the departure of Dylan Shiel to Essendon. He should move up the midfield pecking order and slot straight into Shiel’s role after ranking fourth at the Giants for centre bounce attendances last season behind Shiel, who was equal-third. Taranto was a solid scorer in the 10 games he spent at least 80 per cent of game time as a midfielder, averaging 88 points.

ALEX WITHERDEN

Witherden was in terrific form before an injury in Round 22 prematurely ended his year. He reached 30 disposals in three of his final six full games, averaging 27 disposals, 20 uncontested possessions and 98 points from Rounds 16-21 – ranking fourth for total points scored by defenders during that time. When you add kick-in duties, the upside for Witherden is huge and a breakout isn’t out of the equation.

Alex Witherden ticks the boxes for a breakout season at the Lions. Picture: Liam Kidston.

BRANDAN PARFITT

Surrounded by Patrick Dangerfield, Gary Ablett and Joel Selwood, it’s easy not to notice a young player like Parfitt. He showed glimpses of his talent last season which included having 28 disposals, three goals and a game-high 168 points in a Round 4 win over St Kilda. He ranked fourth at the Cats for scoreboard impact per game, well ahead of Ablett and Sam Menegola.

JADE GRESHAM

Jack Billings was all the rage this time last season, but he failed to meet our lofty expectations and struggled after a promising start. Fast forward 12 months and it’s Gresham who is stealing the limelight after his strong end to last season, scoring at least 110 points in four of six games between Rounds 13-19. A gun midfielder as a junior, he averaged 146 points in the TAC Cup and is poised to play a more prominent midfield role this season.

JACK HIGGINS

Could Higgins emulate Dusty and break out in his second season? He has all the tools to succeed after bursting on to the scene in 2018 – averaging 16 disposals, one goal and 75 points from 71 per cent game time. Higgins ranked 11th among all forwards in the league for points per 100 minutes, outperforming the likes of Jesse Hogan, Josh Caddy and Toby Greene.

Jack Higgins broke Champion Data records for SuperCoach scoring as a junior. Picture: Michael Klein

Expect to see more of Andrew McGrath on a wing this season. Picture: Michael Klein

ANDREW McGRATH

The former No.1 pick has recorded almost identical numbers in his first two seasons, averaging 20 disposals and 71 points. He shared his time between defence and the wing last season, but a permanent role up the ground is a real possibility in 2019. In his most complete performance, he had 33 disposals, eight score involvements and 110 points in a win against St Kilda in Round 21 playing on the wing.

CALLUM MILLS

A change in position could propel Mills to the expected breakout season we have all been waiting for. Posting steady numbers as a defender in each of his three seasons, he has been used as a midfielder during match simulation during the pre-season. With Sydney’s midfield lacking genuine depth and after the departure of Dan Hannebery, we could see Mills added the centre bounce set-up which would bode well for his SuperCoach scoring.

More midfield minutes would boost Jade Gresham’s scores. Pictures: Tony Gough

FINAL WORD

The temptation will always be there to pick one, two or even three potential breakout candidates as their starting price in often enticing enough. However, a cautious approach must be taken, as all three could potentially bomb and fall well short of the numbers we’re hoping for.

One case in point was McGrath last season. He started the year with 102 points in the season-opener against Adelaide, but followed that up with 60, 60, 67, 31 and 65 in his following five games. The end result was a price drop and a wasted trade.

But there is always room for one calculated punt. SuperCoaches are entitled to burn a “corrective” trade early in the season and, with this in mind, I’m a huge fan of Alex Witherden and he’s my tip to break out in 2019. He’s a natural ball-winner, rating elite for disposals, metres gained and marks for a general defender. His intercept play is an obvious area for improvement, rating below average for intercept marks and intercept possessions per game, but it’s an area that will gradually improve.

Rory Laird is one player who spiked in his third season, improving his disposals by 8.5 and SuperCoach points by 35 points. He is now one of the first defenders picked in SuperCoach. Like Laird, Witherden has the weaponry to be a massive fantasy asset and with the Lions on the rise, he could be the jewel in your SuperCoach crown.

Follow @FantasyFreako on Twitter and get more of his SuperCoach analysis in Champion Data’s 2019 AFL Prospectus — order your copy here.

Originally published as Champion Data expert Fantasy Freako analyses SuperCoach breakout contenders