Preliminary final teams, tips: Mick McGuane looks at the keys in Power v Bulldogs and Demons v Cats
Marcus Bontempelli is in but the Bulldogs have suffered another injury blow. And Port Adelaide has revealed its hand on Mitch Georgiades. See all the prelim teams plus expert tips.
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The Western Bulldogs have suffered a huge preliminary final blow with the loss of key defender Alex Keath for Saturday night’s clash against Port Adelaide.
And Bulldogs coach Luke Beveridge has rolled the dice by recalling veteran ruckman Stefan Martin for his game in almost 100 days in an effort to overcome the Dogs’ ruck woes.
SCROLL DOWN FOR FULL TEAMS, TIPS AND MICK McGUANE’S EXPERT ANALYSIS
Keath will miss the cut-throat prelim after suffering a hamstring injury, putting more pressure on the Dogs’ capacity to stop the Power forwards, but skipper Marcus Bontempelli proved his fitness at a Thursday training session, overcoming a knee injury.
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Beveridge has taken a calculated punt in bringing 34-year-old Martin back at the expense of Lewis Young.
Martin hasn’t played since Round 12, due to several injury setbacks, but the Bulldogs are hoping he can limit the impact of Power ruckman Scott Lycett, who dominated when the two sides met in Round 23.
Zaine Cordy returns to take Keath’s place down back, while Jason Johannisen is set to come into the starting 22 as a replacement for Cody Weightman (concussion).
Port Adelaide has named an unchanged line-up, with Mitch Georgiades missing out on selection and Orazio Fantasia proving his fitness,
Melbourne veteran Michael Hibberd has won the race to replace injured Demons defender Joel Smith for Friday night’s blockbuster preliminary final showdown with Geelong at Perth Stadium.
PRELIMINARY FINAL TEAMS
Friday, September 10
Melbourne v Geelong at Perth Stadium, 7.50pm AEST
DEMONS
B: C.Salem, S.May, J.Lever
HB: J.Bowey, H.Petty, T.Rivers
C: T.Sparrow, C.Petracca, E.Langdon
HF: B.Fritsch, T.McDonald, J.Viney
F: A.Neal-Bullen, B.Brown, C.Spargo
FOLL: M.Gawn, C.Oliver, A.Brayshaw
I/C: J.Harmes, L.Jackson, M.Hibberd, K.Pickett
EMG: N.Jones, J.Melksham, J.Jordon, K.Chandler
IN: M.Hibberd
OUT: J.Smith (injured), J.Jordon (sub)
CATS
B: J.Henry, L.Henderson, Z.Tuohy
HB: J.Kolodjashnij, M.Blicavs, J.Bews
C: M.Duncan, C.Guthrie, I.Smith
HF: E.Ratugolea, J.Cameron, G.Rohan
F: S.Menegola, T.Hawkins, G.Miers
FOLL: R.Stanley, J.Selwood, P.Dangerfield
I/C: T.Atkins, Z.Guthrie, M.Holmes, B.Close
EMG: L.Dahlhaus, S.Simpson, D.Fort, S.Higgins
IN: Nil
OUT: B.Parfitt (injured)
PORT ADELAIDE v WESTERN BULLDOGS
Saturday September 11, 7:40pm at Adelaide Oval
POWER
B: R.Burton, T.McKenzie, A.Aliir
HB: M.Bergman, T.Jonas, D.Byrne-Jones
C: X.Duursma, O.Wines, D.Houston
HF: K.Amon, T.Marshall, Z.Butters
F: R.Gray, C.Dixon, C.Rozee
FOLL: S.Lycett, T.Boak, W.Drew
I/C: S.Motlop, R.Bonner, O.Fantasia, P.Ladhams
EMG: S.Powell-Pepper, S.Mayes, J.Lienert, T.Clurey
IN: Nil
OUT: S.Powell-Pepper (sub)
BULLDOGS
B: E.Wood, R.Gardner, B.Williams
HB: C.Daniel, Z.Cordy, B.Dale
C: B.Smith, J.Dunkley, L.Hunter
HF: L.Vandermeer, A.Naughton, A.Treloar
F: J.Schache, T.English, M.Hannan
FOLL: S.Martin, J.Macrae, M.Bontempelli
I/C: J.Johannisen, T.Liberatore, T.Duryea, R.Smith
EMG: A.Scott, Le.Young, M.Wallis, E.Richards
IN: Z.Cordy, S.Martin
OUT: A.Keath, C.Weightman (both injured), Le.Young (omitted)
McGUANE: DO CATS BELIEVE IN GAME PLAN?
The AFL season is now down to just four remaining teams.
Who will book their spot in the grand final?
Geelong will be hoping to avoid a repeat of the last time it played Melbourne in its clash with the Demons in neutral Perth, while Port Adelaide hosts the Western Bulldogs in a do-or-die joust at Adelaide Oval.
Leading footy analyst Mick McGuane runs the rule over the two preliminary finals to unpack what has to happen for each team to proceed to the decider.
Melbourne v Geelong
First Preliminary Final, Perth Stadium, Friday, 7.50pm AEST
Melbourne
The key
Owning the turnover game. The Cats defend a turnover better than any other club, so the Demons’ ability to score from this source is critical. Melbourne’s best football comes when it gets this facet right and the qualifying final against Brisbane was a case in point. The Dees delivered a masterclass that night, scoring a season-high 73 points from turnover, compared to only 33 points that way against Geelong in Round 23. That was Melbourne’s third-fewest tally for the year. Winning contested ball must be a priority as well, because the Cats haven’t lost all season when they’re ahead in that count.
The theme
Pressure and effective tackling must be a focus. It’s a choice you must embrace at this stage of the season, especially when you’ve got equally talented teams pitted against one another. The intent to tackle can be the difference in separating victory from defeat. Geelong’s a big-bodied team and can break through tackles or at the very least stand up in them and still release the ball. Kozzy Pickett, Charlie Spargo, Alex Neal-Bullen, James Harmes and even Clayton Oliver will be important in setting the tone.
The challenge
Taking away Geelong’s control game. That means giving the Cats no time or space when they have the ball. Simon Goodwin would’ve gone to school in the past fortnight on how Port Adelaide dismantled the Cats in their qualifying final. The Demons have been the best defensive team for two reasons. Firstly, their players are in sync in spatial defence and secondly, they are excellent at forcing the opposition into turnovers. Melbourne must starve Geelong of uncontested possessions – and uncontested marks, in particular. GWS couldn’t get the ball off the Cats last week and we saw what happened once Geelong’s kick-mark game got going. The Dees’ defenders must come in behind their attack and bottle up their front half.
X-Factor
Kozzy Pickett. He has the potential to be the most dangerous and influential small forward on the field. Pickett boasts electrifying speed and creates chaos with ball in hand that can cause defenders to panic. But in defence, that speed can be used for perceived pressure and chase-down tackles. He’s the type of player whose actions are uplifting for teammates.
If I was Melbourne …
Steven May is the man for Tom Hawkins and I’d start Harry Petty on Jeremy Cameron, but it gets more complicated from there. Esava Ratugolea didn’t play in Round 23 and presents a match-up problem. Jake Lever might have to go to him, with Michael Hibberd, who is set to replace the injured Joel Smith, defending Gary Rohan. Goodwin would ideally like Lever to play on a smaller forward to allow him to operate as the third man in. Christian Salem and Jake Bowey will have their hands full with Brad Close and Gryan Miers. I want to see Max Gawn taking Rhys Stanley forward as often as possible, too.
Injury list
Marty Hore (knee) season
Jayden Hunt (ankle) test
Adam Tomlinson (knee) season
Geelong
The key
Controlling stoppages and winning contested ball. The Cats need a positive differential in both of those to gain ascendancy at the centre bounce and around-the-ground stoppages and win the territory battle. That relies on a competitive and physical Rhys Stanley, who has improved in those areas in the past two weeks. But going up against Gawn is a whole other level. Stanley has a big role to play to give Joel Selwood, Patrick Dangerfield, Cam Guthrie and Mitch Duncan silver service. The midfielders must have the mindset that every contest matters, because they fell away badly against the Demons last time.
The theme
The message to the players needs to be about faith and belief in the game plan and themselves, given they were 44 points up on Melbourne in Round 23. That was a classic rise and fall match for the Cats. They went from being plus-54 in disposals from the start of the second quarter to the 20-minute mark of the third term, to being minus-32 after that. Everything else dropped off as well, but the positive is the position they were in.
The challenge
How Geelong enters the forward 50 and whether it can replicate the efficiency from Round 23. The Cats kicked nine goals from only 19 entries at one stage between the second and third quarters. They need to strike the right balance with the speed of their ball movement. Getting the ball in quick helps create one-on-one opportunities for Hawkins and Cameron, but comes at the risk of playing into Melbourne’s intercepting strength. There will be times when Close and Miers get caught at halfback playing their role and won’t be able to make it back forward in time on a fast break. In this scenario, Geelong must be patient and not bomb to an outnumbered situation.
X-Factor
Esava Ratugolea. This man could be the key to curbing Melbourne’s greatest strength down back. Ratugolea can not only be a marking presence and hit the scoreboard regularly, but can also keep Jake Lever occupied and limit his offensive impact. Lever’s had 15-plus intercept possession on five occasions this season and took seven intercept marks last time, so he must be stopped.
If I was Geelong …
I’d set Mark Blicavs and Lachie Henderson for Ben Brown and Tom McDonald, respectively. After that, match-ups depend on which players are on the ground. Jack Henry goes to Neal-Bullen to either engage his opponent when he gets high up the ground or stay back to support his fellow defenders. If Luke Jackson is on the ground, the Cats need to reshuffle to get the right match-ups. I’d use a combination of Selwood and Dangerfield to occupy Oliver at stoppages to nullify his first-possession ability. I’d use Duncan to try to hurt Oliver the other way in general play. That leaves Cam Guthrie to mind Christian Petracca, who sneaks forward more than the other Demons on-ballers.
Injury list
Mark O’Connor (hamstring) 1-2 weeks
Brandan Parfitt (hamstring) season
Tom Stewart (foot) indefinite
Match odds
Melbourne $1.47
Geelong $2.70
Flag odds
Melbourne $2.60
Geelong $5.50
***All odds: TAB.com.au
Prediction: Melbourne by 7 points
Port Adelaide v Western Bulldogs
Second Preliminary Final, Adelaide Oval, Saturday, 7.40pm AEST
Port Adelaide
How they play
Port Adelaide is a high-possession team that coach Ken Hinkley likes to be aggressive with ball movement. Only North Melbourne has gone through the corridor more often this year. Port’s defenders look to squeeze up the ground when their team is attacking to lock the ball in the forward half.
The key
Maximise the ruck advantage around stoppages. There are lessons that need to be learnt from the Power’s first final against Geelong where they were comprehensively beaten in clearances 29-37 and centre clearances 3-15. Scott Lycett must be aggressive and really assert himself on the contest against Stefan Martin and Tim English. He needs to give his midfielders advantage hit outs to not only to win first possession but also clear the ball and gain territory against a strong Bulldogs onball brigade.
The challenge
Make a good start. The Port players will be fresh given they have been home for three weeks and had last weekend off after winning their qualifying final against Geelong. That is a clear advantage against a Bulldogs side that has travelled across in five states in less than three weeks. Port must explode from the blocks and set the scene. Take your opportunities early in the game and get the home crowd involved and the Bulldogs will be on the back foot right from the start.
The theme
Bring the heat. Both teams will gain good territory in this game but who wins the territory game will be determined by the team that applies the most pressure and effective tackling must be a priority for Port. Bring controlled aggression and get in the face of the Bulldogs to take away time and space from their best ball users, especially Bailey Dale and Caleb Daniel out of defence. Force the Bulldogs defenders into making rushed decisions, which will play into the hands of the Power’s front-half game.
X-Factor
Connor Rozee. He’s a player with great class, speed and exquisite skill — which is a dangerous combination. He forces defenders to panic, he draws other defenders to him which allows other teammates to find space and he can kick a majestical goal on the run which can create a pulsating atmosphere in front of a home crowd. With the absence of Alex Keath, Charlie Dixon could also blow the game apart for the Power.
If I was Port Adelaide …
Set Trent McKenzie for Aaron Naughton. I’d back Tom Jonas against Tim English when he’s forward. That allows Aliir Aliir to be free to target a smaller opponent. Plan A would be to send Willem Drew to Tom Liberatore again early, sweat on him and push him inside the contest to own the outside. But if Jack Macrae is doing damage, consider sending Drew to him instead. Macrae has a clearance ability that is undersold, along with a strong first-possession and contested ball game. Port must be alert with the Bulldogs’ kick-ins. They caught out the Power multiple times in Round 23 by flooding players to one side of the ground and opening up the other side to get out of defence.
Injury list
Trent Burgoyne (hamstring) season
Kane Farrell (knee) season
Taj Schofield (hamstring) season
Western Bulldogs
How they play
The Bulldogs are a high volume team who play the game with what’s in front of them. A lot of people think they’re a handball team but they play what the opposition give them. Contested ball-winning ability is the signature element of their brand, albeit they’re been slightly off in that area recently. At their best, they bring a high-octane brand where they take the game on with great dare and high risk. Exiting defensive-50, they head towards the boundary more than any other team in a bid to protect their backline.
The key
Control stoppages and Scott Lycett’s influence. Tim English has got a massive role to play again, after he turned the game around after halftime against Oscar McInerney in the semi-final. So, too, does Stefan Martin who has been recalled for his first AFL game since Round 12. Martin and English have to stand up and deliver because their midfielders and their team needs them. Secondary stoppages will also be very important for the Bulldogs. Darcy Byrne-Jones likes to come up behind the stoppage for the Power as an aggressive halfback. Players like Laitham Vandermeer and Bailey Smith will need to follow him to bring extra numbers around the ball, which will dilute the influence of Lycett’s hits into space.
The theme
Play aggressively and quick through the corridor. It’s a Risk v Reward option, but if the ball is in the hands of Caleb Daniel or Bailey Dale it’s a ball movement direction the Bulldogs must adopt. The Power don’t play with a set goalkeeper like many other teams and they give you an opportunity to score ‘out the back goals’ through their aggressive defensive positioning high up the ground. Even just kick the ball to grass inside 50 and allow players with great speed like Jason Johannisen, Vandermeer and Smith to run onto it. Make it a race back to goal.
The challenge
Defending territory. The Bulldogs gave up 68 inside-50s to Brisbane last week, including 37 in the first half. Luke Beveridge wouldn’t want those numbers again against Port’s potent attack. As much as the Bulldogs like to fold numbers back into defence to clog up space, stopping the opposition scoring is difficult against those type of numbers. The Bulldogs were +8 in defensive 50 stoppages and +10 for defensive 50 ground balls against the Lions forwards last week, which helps. But it’s not something you want to rely on.
X-Factor
Aaron Naughton. His ability to run and jump makes him a highly competitive player which will cause some concerns for the Port Adelaide defence. He is clearly capable of kicking five goals in a preliminary final — and this is the time for heroics. Naughton’s got the physical attributes, the aerial ability and has worked on his kicking and forward craft. He could be the difference in this final.
If I was Western Bulldogs …
With Alex Keath out, a combination of Ryan Gardner and Zaine Cordy will need to go to Charlie Dixon, with some back-up assistance from Easton Wood in the air. I’d be on notice to watch for Port if they send a defensive forward to Daniel. You need to plan for that and if his impact is curtailed, he will need to be used elsewhere as a small forward or midfielder. If Aliir does not go to Naughton or English, I’d challenge Mitch Hannan to play a role as a defensive forward on him. For the Bulldogs to score, Aliir can’t control the air and Hannan is a super competitor who can launch himself and bring the ball to ground, allowing others to get the reward.
Injury list
Alex Keath (hamstring) TBC
Cody Weightman (concussion) 1 week
Josh Bruce (knee) season
Toby McLean (knee) season
Match odds
Port Adelaide $1.38
Western Bulldogs $3.10
Flag odds
Port Adelaide $3
Western Bulldogs $6.50
***All odds: TAB.com.au
Prediction: Port Adelaide by 27 points
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