Predicted 23s, selection queries: The big questions ahead of this weekend’s prelim finals
Two prelim finals will feature two famous AFL rivalries. Who makes it back and who could be the heartbreak stories of the finals series? We predict every team’s best 23.
There’s some familiar faces in this prelim final week, who will make it to the last Saturday in September?
We’ve got everything you need to know.
GEELONG v HAWTHORN
Lick your lips, one of footy’s best rivalries is back.
The Cats and Hawks haven’t played a final since 2016 but remain bitter enemies. Hawks fans will tell you their club has won all five knockout finals between the two clubs since the 1963 grand final but Cats fans will rest on hope that their team has won six of the last seven meetings between the clubs.
Geelong is well rested and humming after a qualifying final win and will enter the MCG clash as deserved favourites, but nothing is certain when these clubs meet.
Having become just the second Victorian side to ever win back-to-back finals on the road, Hawthorn will nurse some sore bodies through the week but no doubt Sam Mitchell will have a plan come Friday night.
And speaking of plans, Chris Scott’s team will spend days poring over ways to stop Jack Gunston and Jai Newcombe.
It will be a week of highlights from the 1989 grand final, the 2008 decider, the Kennett Curse and beyond.
All signs point to another classic.
HEALTH
GEELONG
The only injury of note has is to ruck Rhys Stanley, who is nursing a sore hamstring. The Cats didn’t miss him in the qualifying final, with Mark Blicavs stepping to take the load, but the bulk of Hawks big man Lloyd Meek is another issue. Stanley appears unlikely to play, but the Cats will give him every chance.
HAWTHORN
There are the sore Hawks we know about and the others we don’t. Mitchell noted each of Jack Ginnivan, Jack Gunston and Jarman Impey were nursed through the final stages of the semi-final win in Adelaide and after two tough finals, there are doubtless other Hawks feeling the pinch. Ginnivan and Gunston’s hamstrings will be watched closely, as will Calsher Dear, who missed the semi with his own hammy and would be a natural inclusion if fully fit. Luke Breust (knee) is sadly out of the running.
FORM
GEELONG
Couldn’t be better. The Cats have won their last seven games by an average of 54.9 points and brushed Brisbane aside in the qualifying final. The question was raised whether the Cats were battle-hardened enough leading into the finals and that wasn’t an issue against the Lions, but now they have had another week of rest. They will need to be on from the start against the Hawks.
HAWTHORN
Narrow losses to Adelaide and Brisbane are the only blemishes for Hawthorn since mid-July. Including the round 24 game in Brisbane, the Hawks have played their last three matches interstate so will be more than happy to be back on the MCG, where they have won seven of 10 matches this year. One of the losses was to Geelong, however.
PRELIMINARY FINAL EXPERIENCE
GEELONG
No worries here for the Cats. Of the six players in the qualifying final side that didn’t play in last year’s preliminary final loss to Brisbane, only Connor O’Sullivan and Jhye Clark are without previous prelim experience. Perhaps the memories could be nightmares given how last year’s prelim ended, but so many in this team has seen it all before in September.
HAWTHORN
Very much the other side of the coin for these Hawks, with only Jack Gunston, Karl Amon, Tom Barrass and Jack Ginnivan coming in with prelim memories. You imagine that will be no impediment for the Hawks given they have stepped up on the road two weeks running.
X FACTOR
GEELONG
When the Cats blew open the Lions in the second term two weeks back, it was the smart ball use of Shaun Mannagh that cut through. He only finished with 15 touches and no goals but he makes things happen and is an excellent tackler. If he and Ollie Dempsey have strong games, the Cats win.
HAWTHORN
A ruck doesn’t scream X-factor in a team that has Nick Watson, but Lloyd Meek carries a big weight on Friday. So much of Newcombe’s brilliance early against the Crows came off Meek taps and if Stanley is out, he will have a huge strength advantage in the ruck. The big fella can control the game against a Cats midfield that can be put under the pump.
SELECTION WATCH
GEELONG
Hard to see the Cats tinkering much, unless Stanley is fit. Jhye Clark was a surprise sub against the Lions and only played two minutes, so a change could come there with the likes of Jed Bews, Mitch Duncan and Mitch Knevitt waiting in the wings.
HAWTHORN
Mitch Lewis (four disposals) was subbed with no impact and Changkuoth Jiath’s (six disposals) impact was negative when he came on against the Crows, but do you shake up a winning team? The Hawks have some midfield options to come in but seem settled on this mix, with Calsher Dear an easy swap for Lewis if he is fit.
COLLINGWOOD V BRISBANE
Brisbane might have vanquished “little brother” in the semi-final but the reigning premier’s true rival awaits in the prelim.
The two heavyweights traded wins at each other’s home grounds this season: Collingwood landed the first blow at the Gabba in Round 6 – one of Brisbane’s worst showings of the season – before the Lions squared the ledger at the MCG in late-July.
But at least as far as the Lions are concerned, they still owe Collingwood for the 2023 grand final.
Norm Smith Medallist Bobby Hill was the chief architect of the Magpies’ premiership that day – will he be back to terrorise them again on Saturday night?
The Magpies will be well-rested after toppling the Crows and earning a week off. How much juice do the Lions have in the tank, now at the pointy end of their seventh-straight September and fourth consecutive prelim?
Before the qualifying final loss to Geelong, Brisbane had been dominant on the road this season and unbeaten at the MCG.
This looms as a true 50-50 contest between the past two premiers.
After a cold end to the season the Pies were red-hot against the Crows to book a preliminary finals spot. The Collingwood that impressed us so much earlier this year was back and some of Craig McRae’s key players were firing. Darcy Moore, Isaac Quaynor and Brayden Maynard were rock solid in defence, Jordan De Goey was back to his best and the Mason Cox move proved to be an inspired one by McRae. The Pies have well and truly lifted for finals and with a prelim at the MCG, Collingwood fans can start to dream of yet another grand final appearance.
HEALTH
BRISBANE
The Lions have as many as six best-23 starters unavailable through injury, headlined by co-captain Lachie Neale (calf). He is still holding out hope of an unlikely grand final appearance should the Lions get past Collingwood on Saturday. Kai Lohmann has battled with ankle injuries this season and appeared to roll his ankle against the Suns, but played out the game. Hugh McCluggage continues to play with a heavily taped left knee but Chris Fagan was adamant the AA midfielder has no significant issue.
COLLINGWOOD
Can Jeremy Howe overcome his adductor issue in time? That is the big question for Pies fans, while Brody Mihocek is also under an injury cloud as he deals with a toe issue.
FORM
BRISBANE
After being outworked and outclassed by Geelong in the qualifying final, Brisbane responded with a ruthless effort against the Suns in the semi. The MCG mauling by the Cats was an aberration in a season where the Lions have thrived at the home of football. They will be confident they can topple the Pies after recapturing their best form last weekend.
COLLINGWOOD
The Pies were out of form coming into finals but well and truly found it in their demolition of the Crows at Adelaide Oval.
PRELIMINARY FINAL EXPERIENCE
BRISBANE
This Lions group has been there and done that when it comes to performing on the big stage. They haven’t missed a prelim since 2021. There are a couple of interesting names playing in their first final four clash though. Levi Ashcroft and Sam Day are at opposite ends of their careers but have the same amount of prelim experience – zero.
COLLINGWOOD
The Pies have plenty of players with preliminary final experience with the majority of the side out there for their win over GWS two years ago. Before that Collingwood had lost its last two preliminary finals to Sydney at the SCG and the Giants at the MCG.
X-FACTOR
BRISBANE
Cam Rayner stamped his authority on the semi-final with a bullocking burst in the first half to set the game up in Brisbane’s favour. When he is among the top five rated players in a match, the Lions have a 100 per cent win rate. Whether be plays mid, forward or both, the former No.1 pick is a bona fide match winner and now a proven finals performer.
COLLINGWOOD
Jordan De Goey was back to his damaging best against the Crows and looms as a massive weapon for the Pies. Back in the midfield as well, De Goey tore the Crows apart at stoppages and the plan to be cautious with his recovery from soft tissue issues has been a masterstroke by Collingwood.
SELECTION WATCH
BRISBANE
Unless Oscar McInerney pulls up sore from the semi-final he should retain his place alongside Darcy Fort ahead of a double ruck duel with Darcy Cameron and Mason Cox. No players are due back from injury this week so the Lions could go in unchanged against the Pies.
COLLINGWOOD
Will the Pies take the risk on Bobby Hill? He hasn’t played at AFL level since he was the sub in Round 15 because of personal issues but the Norm Smith Medallist could be in line for a remarkable comeback. Howe is the other big issue at the Pies with the defender hoping to overcome his adductor injury in time.
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Originally published as Predicted 23s, selection queries: The big questions ahead of this weekend’s prelim finals
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