Nick Riewoldt’s finals seedings: Every finalist ranked from 1-8
He might be a Rising Star winning but things have changed dramatically since 2018 for Jaidyn Stephenson. Nick Riewoldt explains why Nathan Buckley can’t pick him against the Eagles and reveals his finals power rankings.
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Here we go again.
Heading into another finals series, Richmond has firmed into premiership favouritism after locking away a top-four spot in Round 18.
Brisbane Lions and Port Adelaide also have strong claims to top billing, but it’s the Tigers who should be classed as the team to beat as they chase their third premiership in four years.
These are the x-factors who could launch your club to glory and my finals seedings for the top eight teams of 2020.
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1. RICHMOND
The Tigers have timed their run beautifully again.
They’re in peak form and are about to bring back last year’s best-and-fairest Dion Prestia.
Compared to the same stage last year, they’re offensively a better side, they’re defensively better, their turnover game is stronger, all the metrics associated with their midfield are improved and their end-to-end ball movement is slicker.
Richmond’s game style – creating chaos, being hard to score against, outnumbering at the ball and then being damaging on turnover – is unique to the competition, is proven in finals and is immune to other sides taking it away.
Richmond is a team with plenty of star power, but their stars don’t always need to shine in what is a pure system game.
Their adaptability means Tom Lynch missing the qualifying final is no cause for concern.
Contrary to popular belief, Richmond ranks 11th for pressure applied this year, but they close space better than anyone which creates perceived pressure and turnovers.
Finals X-Factor: Shane Edwards. He’s the glue man for Richmond with his ability to play a variety of important roles.
2. PORT ADELAIDE
This is as good an opportunity as the Power are ever going to get.
Sleeping in their own beds and having home finals is a serious advantage.
The messaging from Port from the start of the season was one of positivity and opportunity – which has created an air of destiny.
Ken Hinkley has not been held captive by talent, either, dropping multiple big names which has kept the group on edge and hungry.
Port’s style is well-suited to big games.
They’re the No. 1 clearance side and midfield bulls like Ollie Wines, Travis Boak, Tom Rockliff and Sam Powell-Pepper are made for finals.
Charlie Dixon’s not in great form, but the Power have become less reliant on him in the back half of the season.
The key concern for Port is their ability to defend end-to-end ball movement of the best teams in the competition, having struggled with that against Brisbane, Richmond and Geelong.
Final X-Factor: Todd Marshall, Peter Ladhams and Justin Westhoff. A second tall forward needs to stand up alongside Dixon.
3. GEELONG
Some would say we’ve seen this movie before with the Cats – a dominant home-and-away season amounting to little come finals.
There is pressure on Geelong given its 4-11 finals record since 2012.
However, I think this is a different Cats side this year.
Coach Chris Scott – who I have dubbed ‘Chris Belichick’ after legendary NFL coach Bill Belichick – has led brilliantly this year and his system stands up.
Geelong has been able to take away opposition strengths within games and get the contest back on its terms.
The Cats would back their system in against all comers, expect maybe Richmond who have caused them some headaches in recent times.
There are still some puzzle pieces to put in place.
What does the ruck set up look like?
Can Gary Ablett, Joel Selwood and Jack Steven play in the same midfield?
Do you play Patrick Dangerfield forward or in the middle?
I’ll answer the last one – against Port this week, Danger will be needed in the middle.
Finals X-Factor: Gary Ablett. We haven’t seen him turn it on in a final for a while. This has got fairytale written all over it.
4. BRISBANE LIONS
Similarly to Port Adelaide, this might be the best chance Brisbane ever gets.
The Grand Final is never going to be held at the Gabba again.
But the question I have about Brisbane is, does their form against Richmond give the Lions confidence or spook them?
On the scoreboard Brisbane has been smacked in its last two games against the Tigers, but the Lions have done a lot right.
They had more shots at goal in last year’s qualifying final and the same shots in Round 10.
If they had of kicked a little more accurately, they would have been right in those games.
The key for Chris Fagan is going to be the ability to sell that message, because I have a question mark about their inner-belief.
Brisbane’s body of work is exceptional, but we’re talking about a pretty special opponent they’re coming up against.
And like last year, another qualifying final loss could snowball.
Finals X-Factor: Hugh McCluggage. He’s had a brilliant year and so many opportunities to have an impact on games but just hasn’t finished, kicking 7.20 for the season. If he can find his range in finals, he can have a huge October.
5. WEST COAST
Of all of the teams, I find the Eagles the hardest to measure.
Part of that is because there’s going to be such a variation based on personnel and who they’re able to get back.
The other part of it is West Coast’s form line, which has been inconsistent this season to say the least.
What does sit in the Eagles favour is their inner-belief to get results regardless of the talent on the park.
Coach Adam Simpson needs only to reference what they did in 2018 — without Nic Naitanui, Andrew Gaff and Brad Sheppard.
On Naitanui, he provides one of the great points of difference among all of the finalists.
The 2020 All-Australian ruckman allows the West Coast midfield to be proactive and play their game in their half of the ground.
The Eagles are also incredibly well balanced.
They’ve got good key defenders that can intercept, strong-marking key forwards that finish in front of goal and a really deep midfield.
They loom as the big danger for the loser of Port Adelaide v Geelong.
Finals X-Factor: The Eagles’ health. It’s all about the medical room.
6. WESTERN BULLDOGS
I give the Bulldogs the edge over St Kilda and Collingwood because they’ve done it before and their form in the latter part of the season has been superior.
The Bulldogs’ midfield is as deep as any in the competition and their halfbacks in Hayden Crozier, Caleb Daniel and Jason Johannisen are really aggressive with their positioning and counter-attack.
Their profile is great offensively – points for, efficiency, turnover game, stoppage game, contested possessions.
But can they stand up defensively? That is the big question mark.
The Bulldogs’ handball game invites pressure and their aggressive style also opens them up to being beaten on turnover the other way.
These deficiencies have seen Luke Beveridge’s team beaten by the better sides this years.
They are 1-6 against fellow finalists.
There are shades of 2016 with the Western Bulldogs, but there are also shades of 2019 where they got punched up and knocked out in the first final.
Finals X-Factor: Aaron Naughton. He’s teased us and he’s had some outstanding games, but he hasn’t really been all that consistent outside of that. He plays a type of game that could rip a final apart, though.
7. ST KILDA
The Saints’ form wobbled in the latter part of the season.
They had multiple opportunities to lock down a spot in the top-eight and they didn’t lock it away until the final round.
However, that win over GWS will no doubt have helped a young side re-establish some real confidence entering finals.
The Saints are a high kicking team, they like to move the footy quickly and they really test the opposition defensively, particularly with their small forwards at ground level.
But at times they have also struggled defensively and been vulnerable themselves.
The recruits have had an increasing impact as the year’s gone on – Dan Hannebery back into the side as a premiership player, Brad Hill as a premiership player has built, Dan Butler’s had a super year and is a premiership player.
Those guys are contributing on the field but I’ve got no doubt that off it they’ll also be contributing with their finals experience.
I was a doubter of the two-pronged ruck set up at the start of the year, but Paddy Ryder and Rowan Marshall are now a weapon.
St Kilda is dangerous – and would not be the first team to win a premiership before their time.
Finals X-Factor: Brad Hill. He just hasn’t quite strung it together this year, but with his ability to run and break the lines he’s got a lot of upside.
8. COLLINGWOOD
It’s almost like the Magpies have been in a holding pattern the last 10 weeks while they were waiting for all their troops to arrive.
They’ve done what they needed to do and won games without really capturing their best form.
The Magpies defend so well, which keeps them in games.
They get numbers behind the ball, they can win one-on-ones and they intercept really well.
Darcy Moore and Brayden Maynard have put together brilliant years and Collingwood’s average score against over the past five games has been 46 points.
The key will be how they move the ball going forward and if they can score, because their slow speed of ball movement has not been testing opposition sides defensively.
Jordan De Goey has come back and there’s no doubt the Magpies look a better for it, while Mason Cox has improved in recent weeks.
But I don’t see how Jaidyn Stephenson can play, given his low levels of confidence.
I still give Collingwood a huge chance of going to Perth and knocking off West Coast, but it’s going to take something special.
Finals X-Factor: Brodie Grundy. He’s really struggled this year and coming up against Nic Naitanui, the Magpies are desperate for him to find some form.
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Originally published as Nick Riewoldt’s finals seedings: Every finalist ranked from 1-8
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