Moneyball: All the latest AFL trade, free agency and contract news
Cats coach Chris Scott fumed at the AFL’s assistance package to North Melbourne on Monday, but has been more been made of it than what we will see on draft night?
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Chris Scott lashed out at the AFL’s ‘blatant manipulation’ by handing the Roos three end-of-first-round picks, but North Melbourne’s selections will quickly be watered down by free agency, NGA and father-son bids.
The Scott argument ignores the fact Geelong has pillaged other clubs by taking advantage of rules like cap dumps (Jack Bowes) and free agency (Jeremy Cameron, Isaac Smith), all of which are departures from an uncompromised draft system.
But consider the end-of-first-round pick the Roos secure this year.
By the time there are bids for Jed Walter, Ethan Read, Jake Rogers (Gold Coast), Jordan Croft (Dogs father-son), Will McCabe (Hawks father-son) and free agency compensation for Ben McKay and Jade Gresham, pick 19 becomes pick 26.
The Roos will be gifted pick 3 by the bizarre free agency compensation system which links a pick to a club’s ladder order.
But handing the Roos pick 26 this year – when they have already traded out their own second-rounder – is hardly going to tip the natural order on its head.
Pies in box seat for Goldstein
Collingwood is in the box seat to secure former North Melbourne ruckman Todd Goldstein as he considers his future as a free agent.
The Roos ruckman provided brilliant service across 315 games at North Melbourne but after being dropped for round 1 this year, he was keen to find a new home.
Essendon and St Kilda have both expressed interest in his services, with the Dons even offering a potential role at the club post-footy.
But those clubs believe he is Collingwood-bound to a side that had to play Billy Frampton in the ruck at times this year as Mason Cox and Darcy Cameron battled injury.
Goldstein is 35 but still had an excellent 20-game season, despite being dropped twice by the Roos.
The Pies have locked away most of their priority targets but Trey Ruscoe, Trent Bianco and Will Kelly are without contracts.
Collingwood is also circling Adelaide free agent Tom Doedee, in a race where the Lions are seen as the favourite.
Star Victorian Lion going nowhere
Brisbane has kick-started talks that will see key playmakers Hugh McCluggage and Keidean Coleman sign new long-term deals with the Lions before the start of next season.
McCluggage and Coleman both come out of their existing deals at the end of 2024, and would be highly-sought-after players if they were on the open market.
But it is understood the Lions are well advanced on bedding down new deals in the pre-season with both McCluggage, 25, and Coleman, 23, who are key planks to the club’s long-term future as well as being critical stars in the Lions’ push for its first flag in 20 years this weekend.
McCluggage was locked away on a three-year-deal early in 2021 and seems certain to waive his free agency rights by agreeing to lock into a long-term deal deep into the decade.
The Victorian would attract enormous interest from clubs in his home state, but the wing-midfielder has thrived in his time in Brisbane and is now one of the club’s vice captains.
He is considered a future captain and already works closely with the club’s co-skippers Lachie Neale and Harris Andrews.
He seems certain to stay, as does Coleman, who elevated his price-tag with a stunning preliminary final performance against Carlton last week.
The lethal half-back has played a big role in the Lions push for a flag this season and he will be set for a good price rise on the two-year deal he inked in late 2021.
What will the Dons pay McKay?
Essendon will have to carefully calibrate its free agency offer for Ben McKay because it will need to pay him more than $790,000 a season to trigger first-round compensation.
Roos coach Alastair Clarkson has threatened to match a bid for McKay if the Roos don’t secure the No.3 overall pick as free agency compensation.
Clubs are able to ask the AFL before free agency deals are lodged what compensation the contracts would trigger.
When St Kilda and Adelaide were discussing Brad Crouch’s free agency deal two seasons ago, they were told specifically the deal would need to be more than $790,000 per season.
Two years on, given pay rises across the board since then, the Dons will have to pay more or the Roos might match the deal.
Hawthorn’s offer was greater than Essendon’s – up to $850,000 and with speculation it was a six-year deal.
So there is not much wiggle room to ensure the deal hits first-round compo.
From flag to the wooden spooner?
Lions veteran Dayne Zorko will play his 250th game for the Lions in Saturday’s grand final with the club understood to be open to him playing on again next season.
Zorko, who turns 35 in February, said this week he was keen to continue in 2024, but as yet there has been no movement on a potential one-year deal that would make that happen.
If the Lions do win the premiership – the club’s first since 2003 – Zorko is unlikely to do a Joel Selwood and retire with a premiership medal.
Insiders believe he is more likely to head into 2024 in an effort to chase more success with the club likely to leave the decision to him, given his status within the group.
The former Lions skipper has played a significant role in the club’s history since his debut match in 2012. It is understood the club believes his form this year warrants him playing on if he chooses to do so.
Meanwhile, Deven Robertson will go into the grand final without a contract in place for next season, giving rise to fears that he could be headed to West Coast next year.
The Eagles are keen to secure his services.
Those who know Robertson speak of him as a loyal person who has thrived in his time at the Lions, but the fact that he hasn’t signed yet leaves the door ajar.
Saints on the hunt for another tall
St Kilda is looking for another ruck-forward as it carefully sorts through how a Jade Gresham-Dylan Shiel trade-free agency switcheroo would work.
St Kilda hasn’t driven that proposal, under which Gresham would get to Essendon as a free agent and Shiel arrived at the Saints as a trade.
So it is assessing whether it could even get up under AFL rules and how strongly it would want Shiel, who turns 31 in March.
St Kilda is set to secure Liam Henry and Carlton’s Paddy Dow and, while it is open to opportunities, is aware how tough it is to find ruck-forwards to help Rowan Marshall and Max King.
The club will give Tim Membrey all the time he needs after he missed the elimination final with a personal health matter but does need to find more key position depth in the long run.
Where future of prized Hawthorn draft pick lies
Hawthorn has no plans to trade Denver Grainger-Barras as the club continues to circle Gold Coast’s Mabior Chol.
The decision from Jacob Koschitzke to join Richmond fills a key need for the Tigers, who will deploy Koschitzke alongside Tom Lynch next season.
The Hawks want Chol to replace Koschitzke in a key forward role.
But Grainger-Barras is also going nowhere, despite links back home to a West Australian club.
The No. 6 pick was drafted as a key defender and was swung forward at times this season, kicking four goals from seven matches.
Next season looms as a key opportunity for the big man to establish himself at either end after the Hawks missed out on stoppers Ben McKay, who chose Essendon, and Esava Ratugolea, who picked Port Adelaide.
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Originally published as Moneyball: All the latest AFL trade, free agency and contract news
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