McGuane: Every premiership contender’s flag chances ranked, rated on Premiership Pie
Forget nine teams in this year’s premiership race completely, writes Mick McGuane. But, of the other nine, who are the true contenders? Find out here.
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Who are the real contenders — and pretenders — still in the 2025 premiership race?
AFL analyst Mick McGuane has divided up his Premiership Pie, rating the chances of every team going all the way this September.
Here is his breakdown of flag chances — which add up to 100 per cent on a pie chart.
MICK’S PREMIERSHIP PIE
28% – COLLINGWOOD
The Magpies deserve to be relatively short-priced favourites, which is why they have the biggest chunk of the Premiership Pie.
This is a team that has gone 10-1 since an Opening Round aberration against Greater Western Sydney and now sit six points clear on top of the ladder with a very healthy percentage.
With a defence led strongly by Darcy Moore and Jeremy Howe, the Magpies rank No. 1 for scores against at 68.7 points per game and is also the best team at restricting opposition points from turnovers.
Collingwood’s front-half game is also in tip-top shape.
The Magpies’ at-ball pressure in the forward half is incredibly consistent and that pressure allows those behind the footy to set up the ground aggressively and generate forward-half intercepts.
There is a strong spread of goalkickers in attack, headlined by Jamie Elliott, Brody Mihocek, Bobby Hill, Tim Membrey and Dan McStay.
Membrey has been a Moneyball recruit, while the additions of Dan Houston and Harry Perryman have provided coach Craig McRae with great flexibility.
The Magpies are set to get back four important players from injury in the back half of the year in Pat Lipinski, Brayden Maynard, Jordan De Goey and Lachie Schultz.
Schultz has been the side’s leading forward-50 pressure player this season, while De Goey could prove an X-Factor addition heading into finals if he can get himself fully fit.
From here, the Magpies will have their eyes on a top-two finish and home final at the MCG, which would leave them well placed in their search for a second premiership in three years.
18% – BRISBANE LIONS
The Lions have been a little off their tucker over the past two months.
But in second place on the ladder, they are in control of their own destiny when it comes to securing a home final.
Not much has changed with the reigning premier’s profile.
They have long been a contest, clearance and territory team and they rank third for inside-50 differential this season.
But where the reigning premiers have experienced a drop-off is around their scoring power once inside the arc.
They ranked third for scoring shots per inside-50 in 2024, but have slipped to 13th in that statistic this season.
Joe Daniher’s retirement has clearly been felt, but there are still a raft of threats in front of the ball.
I was really impressed with Cam Rayner’s game last week, Zac Bailey regularly hits the scoreboard and Callum Ah Chee has taken his game to another level.
Key targets Eric Hipwood (21 goals) and Logan Morris (20 goals) have been solid, while Charlie Cameron (14.15) can have a greater impact on games if he can find his kicking boots.
Defensively, Brisbane is defending the ground well and ranks fourth for points against, with Brandon Starcevich ready to return in that area of the ground after 12 weeks on the sidelines.
The Lions have a challenging run home, but they got on a run in the second half of last season and I wouldn’t be surprised if they do so again.
15% – GEELONG
While there has been plenty of talk about Collingwood and Brisbane, Geelong is quietly mounting another premiership charge of its own.
There is a lot to like about this well-coached team, which has weapons across the field and should lock in another top-four finish courtesy of a favourable run home.
The Cats boast multiple threats in front of the ball and are a highly efficient scoring team.
I greatly admire the small forwards combination of Gryan Miers, Tyson Stengle and Brad Close, who provide a point-of-difference to other teams and just as interested in registering goal assists as they are kicking goals themselves.
Throw in Jeremy Cameron (38 goals), an improving Shannon Neale, a bit of Oliver Henry and Shaun Mannagh and a damaging wingman in Oliver Dempsey (20 goals) and Geelong is a hard team for any opposition to contain.
Defensively, the Cats are capable of going into different modes and bring a defensive structure that stifles opposition ball movement, starting with the pressure applied by their small forwards.
The more that Tom Stewart, Jack Henry and Sam De Koning play together, the better the backline will be.
Mark Blicavs provides great versatility, Max Holmes is airborne and Bailey Smith has been without doubt the recruit of the year.
Additionally, Patrick Dangerfield is made for September and still has life left in his 35-year-old body as a stay-at-home forward who can also rotate as an impact midfielder.
11% – HAWTHORN
The AFL can be a cuddly environment these days.
But the Hawks showed us last week that a ‘bring your mouthguards’ approach to training and really strong conversations with leaders and coaches can still deliver results of importance.
After recording 38 and 36 tackles the previous two weeks, Hawthorn came out and stuck 82 tackles as they hunted the Western Bulldogs in a clear attitude shift.
The resulting win was a circuit-breaker, with Sam Mitchell’s team getting a reminder of what it takes to beat quality opposition.
I’m tipping Hawthorn to beat Adelaide this week and continue the momentum.
If the Hawks can maintain the rage, they will be back to being a genuine premiership contender.
This is a team which can score in multiple ways and still has a pair of key forwards in Mitch Lewis and Calsher Dear to return to the fold.
Those two are the answer to boosting the attack — not James Sicily, who should start as a defender when he gets over his hip issue.
The small forwards can also lift their forward-50 pressure, which would give Hawthorn an even greater capacity to score.
Nick Watson and Connor MacDonald both have leg speed, but rate average and below average respectively for forward 50 pressure this season.
The other room for improvement is around the ball, with the Hawks having shown too much inconsistency around their contested ball and clearance differentials this season.
10% – ADELAIDE
I had some doubts over the Crows earlier in the year, but they have won me over as a legitimate premiership chance.
Matthew Nicks is coaching his charges strongly and wanting more.
I’ve loved the evolution of Adelaide’s defence, which ranks second behind Collingwood for average points against at 73.6 points.
Mark Keane is much improved, Max Michalanney is a quality hybrid who can play tall or small and the Crows have the positive news that Nick Murray is closing in on a return after an injury-interrupted first half of the year.
Adelaide boasts star power in the midfield and forward half, with captain Jordan Dawson leading from the front and Izak Rankine bringing plenty of X-Factor.
There are role players like Jake Soligo — who puts a premium on defensive actions and laid 13 tackles last week — and there has been buy-in from players like Rory Laird who has sacrificed a midfield role to play in defence.
Recruits Alex Neal-Bullen, James Peatling and Isaac Cumming have all been very solid, adding depth and mature bodies to a team that needed it.
In addition to ranking top-two for scores against, the Crows are the No. 1 team for scores for, averaging 101 points a game.
They generate forward-half intercepts as well as anyone and take the best option further afield when they do win it back.
The knock is that Adelaide has gone 2-4 against current top-eight teams this season.
But ball use, pressure and winning contested situations is what separates games at the pointy end of the year and the Crows are performing well in those areas at the moment.
9% – WESTERN BULLDOGS
The Bulldogs are outside of the top-eight for now, but a big boost is on the way.
This team has been aching for the return of Sam Darcy and the big man is finally ready to play this week.
Darcy was one of the best players in the competition across the first five rounds.
He took 20 contested marks and kicked 14.7 playing mostly as a forward over that period, before going down with the injury early in the round 6 match against St Kilda.
The more Darcy can play together alongside Aaron Naughton, the better.
If the pair can get good separation between each other, they’ll both get a lick of the ice-cream.
Even without Darcy, the Bulldogs have shown a capacity to score and some big wins have inflated their healthy percentage.
They rank No. 1 for scores from stoppages, but I would like to see them generate more points from turnovers given they rank ninth in that area.
If they can lift their pressure, that will help generate more turnovers and also assist their defence.
Luke Beveridge’s side ranked first for scores against last season but have slipped to 10th this season.
It showed last week that Ryan Gardner isn’t the solution, while Liam Jones has been playing VFL.
With Darcy returning, Buku Khamis could return to the backline or there may be an opportunity to try and fast-track Jedd Busslinger in a key defensive post in the second half of the year.
I’ve loved Rhylee West’s work as a small forward this year with his hardness and goalkicking, while midfielder Adam Treloar should only get better having played only two games to this point.
On the back of Beveridge’s contract extension, the Bulldogs should get on a roll with St Kilda, Richmond, Sydney and North Melbourne to come over the next month.
4% – FREMANTLE
The Grand Final is played at the MCG and my mind quickly goes back to the last time the Dockers played at the home of football.
That was round 6 and they lost to a Melbourne team that had been 0-5 going into that match.
Key forwards Josh Treacy and Jye Amiss were disappointing as a combination that day and I’ve still got question marks over whether they can stand up under the heat of finals football.
Coach Justin Longmuir is also still trying to play Luke Jackson in a multi-positional role, when the evidence is showing he plays his best football as a primary ruck.
Jackson doesn’t influence in the air well enough when playing forward and has taken only four marks inside-50 this year.
I rate the midfield of Andrew Brayshaw, Caleb Serong and Hayden Young highly, but Young is still at least five weeks away from returning from a hamstring injury.
The speedy small forwards might be key.
If Shai Bolton, Sam Switkowski and Michael Frederick can help generate more front-half turnovers and the Dockers can score from those, they will give themselves a chance at the end of the year.
But as one of three teams fighting for the last two spots in my top-eight, that’s a long shot.
2.5% – GWS GIANTS
It’s been a fair drop-off for the Giants, who were one kick off winning a semi-final against eventual premier Brisbane last year.
The forward-half game that got them that far in 2024 has since disappeared and it would take something special to turn around the fortunes from here.
GWS ranks 16th for time in forward half, 13th for points from forward half intercepts, 15th for contested possession differential and 16th for clearance differential.
While their pressure has generally remained high, their ball movement hasn’t been as profound despite halfback Lachie Ash being firmly in All-Australian conversations.
Sam Taylor couldn’t be doing much more holding the fort in defence and Jesse Hogan has booted 32 goals as a key forward.
But the Giants’ percentage of 107.2 — the second-lowest of the top-eight teams — tells you where they’re at.
If they can’t upset Brisbane on Saturday, they could well sit outside of the top-eight by the end of the weekend.
2.5% – GOLD COAST SUNS
I love the trajectory of the Suns and how they are playing.
But it’s a tough run home for a team which might be another year or two away from really contending.
After the bye, the Suns face games against GWS (away), Melbourne and Essendon (away).
Then it is into a testing three weeks against Collingwood, Adelaide and Brisbane.
If they can’t take some scalps over the next six weeks, they’ll be under pressure just to make the top-eight.
Defensively, Damien Hardwick’s side has been as strong as any.
They rank third for scores against, second for scores per inside-50 against and third for scores from turnover differential.
They are also playing a forward-half game and rank No. 1 for inside-50 differential on the back of a midfield group led by Matt Rowell, Noah Anderson, Touk Miller and Jarrod Witts in the ruck.
It’s an impressive profile, but can the Suns stand up when the bigger challenges come?
I’m not so sure.
NO CHANCE
Some would give Essendon and Carlton a sneaky September chance, but I don’t.
There’s an argument to say that the Blues have missed their premiership opportunity, having risen to a preliminary final in 2023 but gone backwards since.
Carlton has an easier fixture ahead, but the fact is it has gone 1-4 against current top-eight sides this season.
The Bombers have an injury list as long as your arm, but at least they are getting games into kids which will bode well for the future.
I had clung on to faith in last year’s runner-up Sydney after a spluttering start to 2025, but the Swans would need absolutely everything to go right to make a charge from here.
Originally published as McGuane: Every premiership contender’s flag chances ranked, rated on Premiership Pie
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