Jon Ralph’s ultimate fixture wishlist for the 2023 season
What will make Magic Round a success? How about these spicy match-ups. Get the lowdown on exactly what we want to see out of the 2023 fixture.
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For an AFL code that just locked in $4.5 billion for its TV rights an extra $180 million might seem the kind of loose change you find down the back of your couch.
And yet as Travis Auld sits down to finetune the 2023 AFL fixture in coming weeks that is the rich reward in the AFL’s long game if he can hit that schedule out of the park.
Or more precisely, if he can balance the needs of a fixture with 15 rounds again set in stone with a new Magic Round so captivating that it ensures the yearly bidding war the league is so keen on.
No one is saying exactly how much cash the South Australian government stumped up for nine extra games of footy.
But given clubs will earn $9 million in total and players $3.6 million you can bet the AFL is skimming some cream in a deal surely worth $15 million or more for a single year.
If it becomes an AFLX-style flop with airlines having a field day with price gouging and half-full Adelaide Oval stands it will be a trial quickly abandoned.
State governments are willing to throw small fortunes on events that get interstate fans flying in to spend their hard-earned.
So if Magic Round is an unmitigated success the league could secure $20 million a year on average from the 2023-2031 seasons that coincide with the current rights period.
SO HOW DOES THE AFL CASH IN ON MAGIC ROUND?
For Auld the clear priority is selling out Adelaide Oval at least four times across that April weekend and creating the kind of party atmosphere that those crowds will generate.
Auld and the AFL will surely by then have built up a head of steam, because the Easter weekend dovetails into Magic Round in a manner that already ensures football on nine of 11 days.
Call it the 2023 Festival of Football.
Next year Easter is the weekend before Adelaide’s Magic Round, which the league has locked in for Thursday April 13 to Sunday April 16.
So we will get a Brisbane-Collingwood Gabba clash the night before Good Friday, a weekend of quality games, a Hawthorn-Geelong Easter Monday clash, then two days to catch our breath.
Then comes whatever the Magic Round is called, which is expected to feature two big-drawing Victorian teams on the Thursday night at Adelaide Oval.
Collingwood and Carlton always draw well in Adelaide but mostly play twice a season anyway without slotting them into that clash.
So the league could schedule a fixture like Richmond-Geelong (their only clash this year was a three-point epic) on Thursday and pack out Adelaide Oval.
Then on the Friday night it could lock in Carlton-Adelaide before a Saturday night clash like Port Adelaide-Collingwood.
Call it the battle of the prison bars, if you will.
If that clash gets willing - with some David Koch v Jeff Browne sparring pre-event - the league is halfway to the kind of frenzy it is trying to create.
IS LOCKING IN THE FIRST 15 ROUNDS THE RIGHT CALL?
The league’s new-found flexibility with its fixture has allowed it to reward early-season surprise packets with Thursday and Friday night clashes as it drip-fed the fixture in shorter blocks.
But the fans and clubs demanded certainty so we get it while also realising there is a downside.
More power clubs playing more often but less variety.
Surely Friday night becomes a wasteland for the likes of Essendon, North Melbourne, Adelaide, Hawthorn and West Coast, who are expected to battle for the bottom four.
The league just cannot afford Friday night flops given the amount paid for its rights deal and hoping one of them will be the 2023 version of Collingwood is just too risky.
As usual the league will try to build momentum into its fixture with a bumper round 1.
So you can expect Jason Horne-Francis v North Melbourne and a Carlton-Richmond game that would disappoint if it didn’t attract 90,000-plus fans.
DO WE TRUST ESSENDON?
No.
Their coach Brad Scott has already promised a methodical build and their last three seasons have reaped only 24 total wins.
They have Dreamtime at the ‘G and Anzac Day but it would be folly to believe they can do a Collingwood this year given so many recent disappointments.
There are too many teams with better credentials that deserve prime time clashes.
DO WE TRUST ST KILDA?
No. But we are intrigued by Ross Lyon.
So the club’s request for a blockbuster clash against Collingwood in round 3 to celebrate its 150th anniversary should be accommodated.
By that stage they could be 0-2 or 2-0 and either of those results would be catnip for the media and fans and the perfect stage for Fox Footy and Channel 7 to promote a marquee clash.
The AFL would believe their recent results - 11 wins, 10 wins, 11 wins, nine wins _ would make it trustworthy to be capable of holding up the occasional Friday night but not more than a handful.
WHY ARE WE GIVING UP ON A WEDNESDAY SEASON OPENER?
The AFL looks disinclined to reprise last year’s Wednesday night season opener as a premiership replay given neither Sydney or Geelong would want a midweek home game.
It seems like a mistake.
That game rated insanely well - 458,000 across Foxtel and Kayo as the highest-rating subscription TV clash of all time as well as drawing 734,000 viewers on Channel 7.
So play it at the MCG and give Geelong fans four months warning to roll up or even slot it into the SCG and throw the AFL’s marketing might at the game to ensure Swans fans pack their home ground.
If the AFL wants to hit the ground running with round 1 can it afford to ignore a million sets of eyeballs as well as the storylines of a Geelong-Sydney clash given the Swans’ meek Grand Final effort?
Last year’s Melbourne-Dogs replay drew 58,000 _ which was reasonable _ and given the game should be played in perfect weather as early as March 9 the league could expect another crowd of 50,000 plus.
WHAT IN GOD’S NAME DO WE DO WITH GOOD FRIDAY FOOTY?
North Melbourne were smashed in a spectacularly uncompetitive game again this year as the Dogs kicked eight first-quarter goals, led by 45 points at the first change and cantered to a 68 point win.
The crowd was a moderate 32,162 but the Good Friday appeal raised a record-breaking $22 million.
And if you strip the Roos of their single marquee game what chance do they have of ever getting it back?
So the league should persevere with the Roos against a team that could still give them a chance at 40,000 fans, even if it hands Geelong or Richmond or Collingwood one more marquee fixture.
WHO IS THE FIXTURE’S BIG WINNER?
Surely Collingwood and Carlton.
Richmond and Geelong will get their fair share of marquee games again.
But it was impossible to take your eyes off the Pies and Blues last year as Collingwood won from anywhere and everywhere and Carlton got the late-season wobbles.
Both teams play attractive eye-catching footy, have a host of marketable stars, have huge fanbases that will boost attendances on Thursday and Friday nights.
They are locks to cash in on their captivating 2022 performances with a heavy dose of Thursday and Friday night lights.
THURSDAY NIGHTS
The AFL has barely started CBA talks with the players so doesn’t have permission for more five-day breaks which would pave the way for more than 10-12 Thursday games.
So expect five or six Thursdays to start the season _ running through to Magic Round — and five across the byes as well as a Thursday final.
It’s still short of the 15 Thursdays we will get to start the season from 2025 onwards but we are getting there.
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Originally published as Jon Ralph’s ultimate fixture wishlist for the 2023 season
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