How Adelaide Crows’ young gun Riley Thilthorpe compares to other tall forwards drafted early

Some of the AFL’s great tall forwards took four years to really dominate. Could Crow Riley Thilthorpe join them? We analysed the young gun’s trajectory versus other early picks.

Riley Thilthorpe at Port Lincoln for the Crows community camp

Tall forwards sometimes take a little longer to develop.

Crows senior assistant Scott Burns said something akin to that familiar modern footy line when asked about Adelaide young gun Riley Thilthorpe on Friday night.

After kicking 18, eight and 18 goals in 46 games across his first three seasons, the Crows’ highest ever draft selection looks primed to make a big step this year.

The 202cm giant, who was picked at No. 2 in 2020, booted two majors in an imposing trial match performance against Port Adelaide, continuing a strong summer.

Burns has seen first-hand how tall forwards can take a few years to blossom.

The former Collingwood captain began his coaching journey at West Coast in 2009, the season Josh Kennedy began emerging as a future star.

Kennedy, whom Carlton drafted at pick 4 in 2005 before trading him to the Eagles in 2007 in the Chris Judd deal, had booted 18 goals from 29 games in his first three campaigns.

Riley Thilthorpe is entering his fourth AFL season. Picture: Adelaide Football Club

In 2009, he kicked 31 majors from 16 matches.

From there, Kennedy booted 41 and 59 over the next two years then never looked back, becoming an all-time West Coast great and the club’s leading goalkicker.

Richmond spearhead Tom Lynch followed a similar trajectory.

Lynch, taken by Gold Coast at pick 11 in 2010, booted 15, 12 and eight goals in his first three seasons at the Suns.

He added 46 in a breakout 2014 campaign, then 43 and 66.

It took longer for things to click for Carlton big man Harry McKay.

He had his first year ruined by back stress fractures and had not kicked more than 26 goals until his sixth season when he registered 58.

Of course, some modern-day tall forwards have quickly emerged as future stars.

Ben King (Gold Coast) slotted 47 goals in his third season, while brother Max (St Kilda) booted 38 that same campaign.

But there are others taken early who never reach 46 games or kick five goals in a match – the latter feat being one Thilthorpe achieved on debut against Hawthorn in Launceston in 2021.

Thilthorpe booted five again versus the Power in round 3 last year.

It was probably the personal high point of his season, which fell away late.

He kicked just 1.6 from his final six games.

Riley Thilthorpe, the Crows’ highest ever pick, with his family after being drafted in 2020. Picture: Matt Turner

Six months on, Thilthorpe, 21, appears re-energised and ready to shine in his fourth campaign, like Kennedy and Lynch all those years ago.

“He’s been very good all pre-season,” Burns said of the Crows’ highest ever draft pick.

“He’s slowly made inroads since he’s been here.

“I think we forget, he’s 202cm and sometimes they can take a little bit more time.

“The path he’s on and trajectory he’s on has been really promising throughout the pre-season going into the start of the season.”

Burns said experience had been a major driver of Thilthorpe’s progress.

“You go back through history and look at Joshy Kennedy and even McKay at Carlton, they’ve all taken a little bit of time to get going,” he said.

“It’s not easy for a big fella, especially as a key forward. “

While Thilthorpe’s goal output ranked him seventh at the Crows in 2023, he was second at the club – behind Taylor Walker – and 13th in the AFL for contested marks with 38.

The names ahead of him include captains, All-Australians, premiership players and veterans: Charlie Curnow, Max Gawn, Jacob Weitering, Darcy Moore, Noah Balta, McKay, Jesse Hogan, Joe Daniher, Charlie Ballard, Harris Andrews, Aaron Naughton and Walker.

Thirty-eight contested marks is also more than Kennedy, Roughead, Ben King, Daniher, Lynch, Roughead or Curnow took in any of their first three seasons.

Tom Lynch took until his fourth season to breakout.

In December, Thilthorpe told the Crows’ website he had focused on getting stronger in the gym over summer and was boxing up to twice a week.

“I feel I’m able to throw guys around a little bit more, which is really exciting for my game next year,” Thilthorpe said.

“I feel the work I’ve done in the strength space will really help with that consistency, being able to be stronger in the contest and clunk a few more grabs.”

There were signs of that against the Power on Friday in a promising sign for the season.

“I think you’ve got to remember when you were 18 and finished high school, then what you were when you finished uni – four years is a big time difference in terms of mentality and maturity,” Burns said.

“We all get bigger and stronger, even if we’re not involved in a footy club.

“When you’re here day in, day out and doing weights every day and they’re being more professional, they’re obviously going to put a little bit of size and strength on.

“He’s been able to do that and still maintain some pretty important running times.”

Like Lynch, Josh Kennedy took until his fourth season to start to emerge as a future star.

Thilthorpe’s contested marking also compares favourably to two of his fellow 2021 top-four selections: Western Bulldog Jamarra Ugle-Hagan (No. 1) and Sydney’s Logan McDonald (4).

Ugle-Hagan took 31 last season and McDonald grabbed 15, though they outshone Thilthorpe for goals with 35 and 32 respectively.

Thilthorpe may struggle to match their scoreboard output because of his stints in ruck.

Last season, he attended 16 per cent of centre bounces and that could increase this year.

Then again, if Walker retires at season’s end, Thilthorpe, who is contracted until the end of 2025, can become more of an attacking focal point.

Walker’s brilliant form over the past two years has meant Thilthorpe has not been the No. 1 option like some other young forwards early in their careers.

If Thilthorpe can follow a similar path this year to others who have taken a while to blossom, then the AFL’s highest scoring team of 2023 will become even more difficult to stop.

Originally published as How Adelaide Crows’ young gun Riley Thilthorpe compares to other tall forwards drafted early