Geelong has made a habit of being so near, yet so far since 2011. Will 2020 be the year the Cats make the final leap?

Much has been said and written about the defensive tactics of Geelong coach Chris Scott, and why they come unstuck in finals. The Cats’ strategy will face no bigger test than Port Adelaide on Friday night.

Geelong coach Chris Scott.

Mitch Duncan admits he probably took success for granted.

The star Cats midfielder was in his second year in the AFL when he tasted flag success as a 20-year-old from the west in Geelong’s 2011 premiership-winning team.

“You kind of think it is just going to keep happening,” Duncan said.

“But obviously they are a lot harder to win than you think when you are that age.

“Being a young kid when it first happened, you probably take it for granted a little bit.”

Since then, Duncan’s visions of climbing to the top again have failed to materialise as Geelong made a habit of finishing so near, yet so far from the chance to challenge for the ultimate prize.

Having missed the finals only once since 2011, the Cats have been a preliminary final tease, falling at the final hurdle four times in the past seven years.

But Geelong’s brutal 59-point demolition of St Kilda on Monday night reminded everyone in the competition of the team’s flag credentials this year.

Could 2020 be the year the star-studded Cats finally make that final leap – and rectify coach Chris Scott’s poor finals record?

Friday night’s blockbuster clash against ladder leaders Port Adelaide at Metricon Stadium can further legitimise those claims as to whether the Cats are a genuine premiership contender, or another preliminary final pretender.

Mitch Duncan admits he took success at the Cats for granted after winning a flag in his second year at the club.

Duncan has long had faith in the Cats’ potential to challenge for silverware, but feels the flag formula is coming together in 2020.

“I go into every year confident we can contend to win a premiership,” he said.

“We have played a lot of footy together now, we have got some great youth and some great experience at the same time, so we are ticking a few boxes there.

“I go into every year really confident of where our list is at and what we can produce, this year is no different.”

Geelong premiership forward and Fox Footy commentator Cameron Mooney said the Cats’ current form indicated they would be a genuine premiership threat – but replicating it in finals time remained the key.

“When it comes to Geelong I have never been too concerned with their home-and-away form. The old story for Geelong is come finals time,” Mooney said.

“My biggest concern is always the bigger grounds, as we saw over in Perth … it’s the bigger grounds that you really have a question mark on.

“But their form at the moment is as good, if not the best form in the competition right now.

“The biggest thing about footy … it’s the team that’s in great form at the end of the year … you just hope that they haven’t fired their shots too early.”

Cameron Ling and Chris Scott celebrate Cats’ 2011 premiership, their third in five years. The Cats have bowed out in a preliminary final four times since then.

PRELIMINARY FINAL PAIN

The Cats have bowed out in the preliminary finals in three of the past four seasons and also lost in an elimination final in 2018.

Duncan said those defeats had been painful for the Cats, but the playing group had tried to learn from the experiences.

“It’s really disappointing getting so far and then coming up a little bit short,” Duncan said.

“But I guess we try and learn a lot from those outcomes. We do know that our best footy can stack up against the best oppositions if we can implement it for long periods of time.”

Duncan conceded there was a “lot of luck involved” in being able to make the last leap from a preliminary final to the premiership decider, but said the team’s ability to think on the run during games without coaching input had been one of its biggest lessons.

“The ability to change your game when things aren’t going your way, or depending how the game is being played, being able to change what is happening, I think as a group we are slowly maturing in that regard,” Duncan said.

“Rather than waiting to hear from a coach at quarter-time, we can try and adapt out there quicker and I think we have learnt a lot over the past three or four years about trying to do that, especially as leaders, and I think that will hold us in really good stead going forward.”

Patrick Dangerfield and his Cats led Richmond by 21 points at halftime of last year’s preliminary final but couldn’t hold on.

GAME PLAN

Geelong has often not been a top consideration in premiership debates because of question marks over its defensive game style.

It’s enough to get the Cats to the finals every year, but the query has been whether it can produce enough goals to deliver a flag.

Duncan backed the Cats’ defensive game, but did not have any doubts about their ability to score. Geelong boasts the second-highest percentage in the competition behind Port Adelaide this season.

“We are a pretty well defensive side, but I think we are (almost) leading the competition for scoring, too,” said Duncan, who is averaging more than 20 disposals a game.

“We do score and we have got some powerful players up forward with ‘Hawk’ and we saw Gary Rohan (four goals on Monday) night and when Gaz Ablett is playing we have obviously got some offensive weapons up there.

“Pat (Dangerfield) can go forward and then we have great little pressure players that can hit the scoreboard as well.

“I think our balance up there is really good.”

Mooney said only the heat of the finals would tell if the Cats’ game style stacked up.

“You just don’t know until you get there,” Mooney said.

“Finals footy is a different breed and a different game, it’s very contested — you are not going to get maybe the nice kick-in and the nice marking around the ground that you might get in Round 14.

“You’ve got to be prepared for that and that’s going to be a question are they prepared for that? Time will tell.”

Sam Menegola has recaptured his best form in 2020.

THE BIG IMPROVERS

According to Champion Data, star forward Tom Hawkins has been one of Geelong’s three big improvers for the Cats this year from last season.

But the biggest lift has come from midfield duo Sam Menegola and Cam Guthrie.

Menegola, who is averaging more than 21 disposals a game, has had a ranking spike of 23 points per game from last season.

Guthrie’s ranking is also up almost 20 points on last season.

Mooney likened Guthrie’s form to that of a three-time premiership Cat.

“I love Guthrie in the midfield, Guthrie is a bit like Joel Corey,” Mooney said.

“He attacks really well, but he is probably the No.1 player that values that defensive side of the game.

“The ball turns over, he finds his man and he gets back and helps and he does whatever it takes, that was Joel Corey to a tee.”

Mooney also pointed to the development of the Cats’ youngsters, highlighting second-year forward Gryan Miers, who starred with a four-goal return against North Melbourne.

He also said Lachie Henderson hadn’t “put a foot wrong” since returning to the team after “question marks” on him coming in.

Forward Gary Rohan is another to have enjoyed a rankings spike, the fifth best at the Cats this year.

The former Swans’ four-goal haul against the Saints was his best since early last year and demonstrated what an attacking threat he can be, but a concern for the Cats is that he has not been regarded as a big-game player or a consistent finals performer.

Joel Selwood is running out of time to add a fourth premiership to his collections.

CLOCK TICKING

One of the oldest teams in the competition, the clock is ticking on the Cats’ core group of stars to claim a flag while they remain at the peak of their playing powers.

Hawkins and captain Joel Selwood are 32, while Dangerfield turned 30 this year.

Gary Ablett Jr, who has taken personal time away from the team to be with his family, is in red time at 36.

“Obviously, we are probably closer to the end than the start of our careers,” said Duncan, who remains contracted until 2024.

“I still think the club is in a good position going forward.

“I still see us being a strong side over the next few years, that’s for sure.

“There are obviously some players at the end of their time that we want to go out on a high if that’s the case, but I still think we will be able to challenge for a few years.”

If Duncan and the Cats can triumph this season, the now 29-year-old said it would mean a lot more to him this time around.

“I played with so many champions that allowed me to get there.

“To be able to do that for our younger guys, and some of the more experienced guys that we got in from other clubs, would mean a lot.

“I think I would cherish it a lot more personally, too.”

Tom Hawkins is equal leader in the Coleman Medal race.

HAWK-EYE

Duncan and Hawkins were significant outs from the Cats’ team that suffered a 19-point preliminary final loss to eventual premiers Richmond last year.

Hawkins was suspended, while Duncan missed after injuring his knee in the qualifying final against Collingwood.

The big forward has taken his game to another level this year, sharing the Coleman Medal lead with Eagle Josh Kennedy after a five-goal haul against St Kilda on Monday night.

Hawkins has kicked multiple goals in all but three games this season, leading many to suggest he is playing the best football of his career.

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Mooney said the Cats’ game style was helping Hawkins play to his one-on-one strengths.

“Tommy Hawkins is in arguably career-best form at the age of 32,” Mooney said.

“The last couple of weeks I love the fact that Danger has played more forward. (The match against) North Melbourne is a great example – instead of having (Robbie) Tarrant on Hawkins, Tarrant goes to Dangerfield, which I thought was a bad move from the beginning, but that freed up Hawkins to have a big game.

“We have seen Hawkins get more one-on-ones now than I have seen in a long time, along with Charlie Dixon they are the best one-on-one players in the competition by a street.

“The way that they are moving the ball and playing, it’s not necessarily fast, but they are just playing a brand that is allowing them to get better one-on-ones for Hawkins and that’s the improvement.”

Originally published as Geelong has made a habit of being so near, yet so far since 2011. Will 2020 be the year the Cats make the final leap?