Hokball’s ugly truth: Are Hollywood Hawks a premiership contender or going backwards?

This time last year, Hawthorn was 4-7 and a long way from premiership contention. Now, at 7-4, the Hawks’ credentials are being questioned again. Here’s why.

Hawthorn is sixth on the ladder with seven wins and four losses and a percentage of 117.

This time last year the Hawks were 14th on the ladder with four wins and seven losses and a percentage of 82.

Which version, after 11 rounds of football played, was closer to winning a flag?

The benefit of hindsight tells us the 2024 incarnation went on a 10-2 tear in the back half last year to establish themselves as one of the most exciting teams in recent times. They were irrepressible, riding a wave of youthful exuberance that threw conventional wisdom out the window, and introduced TikTok football to the rest of the competition.

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They were precocious, cheeky, infuriating, exhilarating and unapologetically in your face with the brand of football they played and the celebrations they revelled in.

It wasn’t everyone’s cup of tea, but boy, it was exciting.

Nick Watson and Calsher Dear kicked seven goals between them as they cleaned up the Dogs in the first elimination final, with Jai Newcombe best on ground and James Sicily not far behind.

They bowed out the next week in a thriller to Port and quickly turned their attention to 2025. The rest of the footy world couldn’t get enough of the brash upstarts from Waverley and they wore the moniker of Hollywood Hawks with pride.

Add the names of Tom Barrass and Josh Battle to their back half, a freshly anointed All Australian in Dylan Moore, a top-10 finish in the Brownlow to Newcombe and the potential upside of Watson, coming off six goals in two finals, the athletic profile of Josh Weddle and the unbridled excitement an unencumbered Will Day brings, then there is little wonder they were the buzz side coming into this season.

So, sixth spot on the ladder with seven wins to their name for the year is a pass. No more, no less.

They have dropped the last two games to the Suns up in Darwin and to the reigning premiers, the Lions, at the MCG.

There is no shame in that, and the win against Melbourne three weeks ago, now looks better than it was at the time, given it is the only game the Demons have dropped in the past six weeks.

Hawthorn’s seven wins this year have hardly been convincing.

Do they look primed, however, to charge through the back half of this year and fulfil the expectations of many that they will be genuine premiership contenders? Are they capable of replicating a 10-2 finish to the season as they did last year?

I never saw their barnstorming finish to the season coming last year, and was slow to acknowledge their credentials.

From a ladder perspective they are undeniably better placed to launch, but I’m not convinced they are in as good a shape as they proved to be this time last year.

There are aspects of their game that they would be very comfortable with.

There are players, whose form is absolutely pivotal to their success, that they would be less comfortable with.

James Sicily is a star that is failing to shine. He is a defender who last week was reluctant to defend. He is a leader who, occasionally, misleads. He is a beautiful kick of the football, who has more defensive half turnovers than any other player in the game.

We all know he is an All Australian calibre player, but he is a long way from that right now, and as the captain of the football club, influences the mood of this group as much as anyone.

At his best, he is combative, proactive, competitive and as unhurried and capable as any defender playing. He can slice his way through any opposition zone defence by foot with laser-like precision and open up the ground for enterprising attacking forays.

When he gives 50-metre penalties away, allows opponents to run free inside 50 and turns the ball over like a suburban battler, the impact is heavy.

Jarman Impey is so critical to the way this side moves the ball. And we’ll get to the fact that while the Hawks are doing this very well, the one area they are letting themselves down is, is the ability to score from the back half from intercept, where they sit 11th in the competition.

Impey hasn’t been terrible, but he is down on last year’s output and would look for an improved second half of the year.

Massimo D’Ambrosio and Dylan Moore fall into similar categories.

D’Ambrosio had a breakout year last season, cruising up and down the wings with such effect that he made the All Australian squad of 40.

He was a top 20-ranked player with Champion Data’s system, but has dropped outside the top 150 this year.

Moore had a brilliant All Australian year last season that saw him kick 36 goals for the year, including multiple goals on nine occasions.

He has managed 11 goals from 11 games this year, scored multiple goals just twice, and hasn’t been as damaging or as prolific with ball in hand.

None of these players have been horrible, but they were so pivotal to the resurgence of the Hawks last year that any drop off in form is going to be impactful.

Dylan Moore’s output has dropped this year.

Massimo D’Ambrosio also hasn’t been as damaging.

The better news is that the style of football that the Hawks want to play is holding up well since they went on their run last year.

At their best they play a rollicking style of football that can be offensively devastating. From Round 8 last year, until Round 24 they were the No. 1 scoring team in the game, and No. 2 for points from turnover differential and points from clearance differential.

Defensively, they had given up the least amount of points in that time.

This year they are the third-hardest team to score against when intercepting the ball, fifth-hardest team to score against from clearance and fifth-hardest team to score against once you go inside 50.

These are superb numbers for a team that many perceived, myself included, to be slightly below their best this year. Add to that the fact that they are moving the ball from defensive 50 to attacking 50 better than they have since 2014 and defending that same measurement better than they have since 2013, then there is little wonder that, internally, there is a quiet confidence about the way they play and that it will hold them in good stead as we work towards the business end of the year.

If there is a frustration right now it is with their stoppage work. They lost clearances by 17 against Brisbane and the Suns by 15. They lost centre bounce by seven and nine respectively. They scored a total of nine points from clearance against the Lions.

Lloyd Meek has had a very good year. From a hitout point of view the club sits seventh in the comp, but it would appear opposition clubs have gone to work on Meek and Co.

They have their hitouts sharked by the opposition more than any other team, bar one.

Only two other clubs lose first possession more than them. With Newcombe and Worpel as the cornerstone of their centre bounce set up, that is enormously disappointing.

You can’t help but wonder how heavily the absence of young superstar Will Day is being felt in this area.

Last year he missed the first seven games of the season and the Hawks were 14th for clearance diff. With Day back, by the end of the year they were fifth.

Similarly this year, with Day absent for all but the first four games of the year, the Hawks sit 16th for clearance differential again. Tellingly, Hawthorn is 4-0 with Day in the side. They are 3-4 without him.

Which brings us to Friday night. There was an edge about their coach, Sam Mitchell at his press conference on Wednesday, when he went into bat for his captain, among other things. I loved it. I doubt very much whether there’s been too much talk of the Hollywood Hawks out at Waverley in the build up to this game.

Mitchell was the fiercest of competitors who did whatever it took to win. That mindset is imperative against these impressive Magpies.

In response to the back to back losses, Mitchell said: “You’re much more frustrated as a media group than we are.”

Take out of that what you will. There are definite positives to where they sit. Do they outweigh the negatives that are lingering? Nothing like a Friday night test against the top of the ladder Pies at the MCG to find out.

Originally published as Hokball’s ugly truth: Are Hollywood Hawks a premiership contender or going backwards?