Garry Lyon: How Sydney went from Grand Final in 2024 to battling to make finals in 2025

The simple answer is that injuries have denied Dean Cox a proper crack in his first season as Swans coach. But dig a little deeper, writes Garry Lyon, and it becomes clear Sydney is a shell of the team which made last year’s Grand Final.

By almost any measurement Sydney was the best attacking team in the competition last year.

But nine rounds into 2025 the Swans are the worst.

In 2024 they were the No. 1 team in the competition for scoring once the ball went inside their forward 50 – they are now 18th.

They were the No. 1 team in the competition for kicks retained going into their forward 50, they are now 18th.

When it came to winning forward 50 1v1 contests, they were the 3rd best in the competition. They now sit 14th in the same stat.

It makes for grim reading.

Dean Cox entered his inaugural coaching season with an excited anticipation and expectation that the offensive aspects of his team were in good order.

Maybe the Swans weren’t going to be clearly the best again — as last year’s numbers suggested. But Cox would have been confident they would have enough stead to hold them in a good spot throughout the season.

His messaging throughout the pre-season was to improve on what he described as an inconsistent approach to the contest, to shore up the defence and to be prepared for on field positional change.

Wanting to keep the ball inside forward 50 for longer was another stated aim, but apart from that, the front half would seem to have been functioning as well as he could have hoped.

But walking away from the disaster that was last year’s Grand Final defeat didn’t have me as convinced.

The Joel Amartey, Logan McDonald, Hayden McLean triumvirate returned a solitary behind for the afternoon, although McDonald was injured after a quarter and a bit of football.

The question lingered over whether or not these three tall marking forwards could pose a big enough threat when it mattered most.

Undeniably, they had their moments through the home and away season and they were the cornerstone of a forward half that was, statistically, the superior of any other.

And in the preliminary final victory over Port Adelaide they contributed six goals between them and took a combined 19 marks.

That was evidence enough, it would seem, to not charge aggressively into the market place for reinforcements or replacements.

So, what has gone wrong?

What Cox could not have anticipated was the savage injury toll the Swans are dealing with.

Only Geelong has been hit harder. And to make matters worse, the area most compromised is the area that they find themselves languishing at the bottom of the table in — the forward half.

Tom Papley and Logan McDonald have missed six of the nine games and Joel Amartey has missed four.

They were three of their top four goal kickers last year and their absence has been sorely felt.

Whilst this has clearly had an impact on their ability to win 1v1 contests in the most dangerous part of the ground, it has also shown up in the number of 1v1 contests that they actually lose.

Only Port lose more, which directly impacts their ability to put pressure on opposition defences and force turnovers in their front half.

This has also lead to a dramatic change in the way the Swans score.

Last year they were the second best team for scoring from forward half intercepts and this year they are 18th.

They’ve also gone from being the No. 1 team in the competition for scores from forward half, which includes scores from stoppage as well, to the 16th best.

Again, the numbers are harrowing for a team that was so efficient last year. These are not drop offs by a little, these are drop offs by a lot.

Is it too simplistic to put it down to absent personnel?

Some will point to their impressive win against cross town rivals GWS two weeks ago as proof that there is more to this decline than injuries to key players.

Dean Cox’s first season in charge has not gone to plan.

Errol Gulden works his way back from injury.

But the key to that result in particular was the radical notion of using your two key forwards, in this instance Joel Hamling and Aaron Francis, as essentially negating harassers of the opposition’s two key defenders, in Sam Taylor and Jack Buckley.

As far as shock tactics go, it worked brilliantly and was perhaps Cox’s finest coaching performance. But to expect Hamling, with a solitary goal to his name from his 98 games, and journeyman Francis to effectively lead your forward 50 for any length of time is wildly optimistic and the Swans know that.

Maybe Hamling takes Jacob Weitering when the Swans take on Carlton this week.

But beyond that they need to get more proactive.

The fact of the matter is the absences of Amartey, McDonald and particularly Papley, has had a monumental impact on what this Sydney side can do from an attacking point of view.

If there were any doubts about the forward mix coming into the season then they have been exacerbated in the nine rounds so far.

Added to those yet to appear this year are Errol Gulden, Callum Mills, Robbie Fox and Harry Cunningham.

Gulden is to this Sydney side what Zak Butters is to Port Adelaide.

When Butters doesn’t play, Port look like an entirely different outfit.

He energises them and gives them undeniable self-belief and swagger.

I think everyone – the coach included – walks taller when Butters plays. He gives them immediate belief and self-confidence and the whole demeanour of the Port Adelaide side changes with him.

Gulden has a similar impact on the Swans. He is not as overtly physical as Butters but he is an energiser.

Where Butters brings with him swagger, Gulden provides harmony and connection.

This isn’t just metaphorically but these in a real sense of connect between the midfielders and forwards.

That is being sadly missed in his absence.

The Swans need more in the attacking half from Chad Warner.

Nick Blakey (1), Chad Warner (5) and Tom Papley (11) were providing silver service last season, yet they’ve all dropped out of the top 15, and Gulden hasn’t presented at all.

Is it the kicker or the target? Both have been below the high standards of 2024.

Papley’s non-appearance might just be the most decisive of all the factors that has sent the Swans’ forward group from the penthouse to the doghouse.

Not unlike Butters, he carries with him a winner’s mentality that can ignite the dullest flame.

His exuberance and infectious personality permeates throughout a group and it is those qualities that are painfully absent right now.

Not to mention his willingness to compete and his disdain for defeat.

It is no coincidence that without him bouncing around his forward 50 sparking melees, engaging in some verbal warfare and basically daring anyone to enter his domain, the Swans have also become the worst contested ball team in their forward 50 in the competition.

That is a damning and embarrassing indictment on a group that has espoused the virtues of the ‘Bloods Culture’ for many years yet have failed to live up to that revered mantra in any meaningful way.

We can talk about the way the ball is kicked, the leading patterns of the forwards and the absence of key personnel all we want.

But the one thing that we have never equated with this Sydney team over the journey was a declining appetite for the contest.

Do we have to wait until Mills, Papley, Taylor Adams, Cunningham and Fox return before we see the insatiable appetite for the contest return?

Is it time for Isaac Heeney to sacrifice midfield time and become the forward 50 class they so desperately crave – at least until the cavalry arrives?

Getting it inside 50 is not the problem. In six of the nine games they’ve played they have had more looks going forward than the opposition.

It has been a challenging introduction for the new Sydney coach.

On the big stage that is Friday night football he has to find a way to score more when they go inside 50.

It sounds simple but it’s not. But they don’t win if they don’t.

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Originally published as Garry Lyon: How Sydney went from Grand Final in 2024 to battling to make finals in 2025