Footy Form: Where the value lies for punters in Round 7 of the AFL
In a week where there are a few close games on the cards, Chris Cavanagh gives his thoughts on each game to try and find where the value lies for punters. Plus, this week’s market movers with TAB.
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In a week where there are a few close games on the cards, Chris Cavanagh gives his thoughts on each game to try and find where the value lies for punters.
Plus, scroll down for this week’s market movers with TAB.
ESSENDON v WESTERN BULLDOGS
Metricon, Friday 7.50pm
The Bulldogs were shown up by Carlton last week, but I’ll give them that as a bad night.
They are better than that and showed as much by winning their previous three games against North Melbourne, Sydney and GWS.
As good as the Bombers have been, they haven’t beaten anyone of note aside from Collingwood.
I also can’t ignore the 104-point belting the Bulldogs gave the Bombers in Round 21 last year.
I think the Bulldogs have too much midfield strength and speed — especially with Dylan Shiel missing for Essendon — and will win this.
I like the Bulldogs by 1-39 points at $2.25.
TAB ODDS: ESSENDON $1.92 W. BULLDOGS $1.92
Moneyball: Western Bulldogs have attracted 68 per cent of head to head bets with TAB
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GWS GIANTS v BRISBANE
Giants Stadium, Saturday 1.45pm
The Giants have been up and down like a yoyo, but their record at home this year and last has been very good.
They are 3-1 at Giants Stadium this year, after going 7-2 last season.
Away from Giants Stadium since the start of 2019, GWS is a much-less-impressive 9-10.
Brisbane similarly struggles away from the Gabba. The Lions lost to GWS by three points at the Gabba in last year’s semi-final.
I think the Giants are too experienced and will be too strong at home.
TAB ODDS: GWS GIANTS $1.75 BRISBANE $2.10
Moneyball: GWS has attracted 85 per cent of head to head bets with TAB
SYDNEY v GOLD COAST
SCG, Saturday 4.35pm
Injuries are mounting for the Swans and I worry from where their goals are going to come.
Josh Kennedy and Isaac Heeney have joined a long list of key names out of the side this week and the Swans already have not kicked more than six goals from their past three games.
I think the Suns — who are averaging nine points a game more than Sydney — should get the job done, especially if Izak Rankine can back up last week’s debut.
Consider Gold Coast by 1-39 points at $1.95.
TAB ODDS: SYDNEY $2.20 GOLD COAST $1.70
Moneyball: Gold Coast has attracted 67 per cent of head to head bets with TAB
RICHMOND V NORTH MELBOURNE
Metricon, Saturday 7.40pm
The Kangaroos started the season so well, but have dropped off so badly.
They have now lost their past four games and haven’t kicked more than eight goals in any of them.
The Tigers remain undermanned, but still have enough stars on the park to fight out wins like they did against Sydney last week.
The Roos scored a 37-point win last time these sides met in Round 11 last year, but I think Richmond wins this.
Tigers by 1-39 points at $1.90 looks appealing.
TAB ODDS: RICHMOND $1.57 NTH MELBOURNE $2.45
Moneyball: North Melbourne has attracted 83 per cent of head to head bets with TAB
CARLTON v PORT ADELAIDE
Gabba, Sunday 1.05pm
AS good as Carlton was against the Bulldogs last week, it’s hard to go past ladder-leader Port here.
The Power are playing a more high-scoring, sustainable brand and the Blues’ defence still leaks goals.
Port has also won its past three games against Carlton, most recently by 16 points in Round 2 last year.
TAB ODDS: CARLTON $2.90 PORT ADELAIDE $1.42
Moneyball: Carlton has attracted 60 per cent of head to head bets with TAB
HAWTHORN v MELBOURNE
Giants Stadium, Sunday 3.35pm
A flip of a coin game, really.
The Hawks have been poor the past two weeks in losses to Collingwood and GWS, but Melbourne is a few rungs below those sides right now.
In saying that, the Demons got some confidence back last week in a win over the Suns, and they have won their past two games against the Hawks. I’m leaning to the Dees — just.
TAB ODDS: HAWTHORN $1.70 MELBOURNE $2.20
Moneyball: Melbourne has attracted 60 per cent of head to head bets with TAB
FREMANTLE v WEST COAST
Perth Stadium, Sunday 6.35pm
The derby is here and that means the first meaningful crowd we will see at the footy this year, which will be almost exclusively Dockers fans.
But despite that, I think the Eagles win after turning around their season the past two weeks. West Coast has won its past nine games against Fremantle, most recently by 91 points last year.
TAB ODDS: FREMANTLE $3.30 WEST COAST $1.33
Moneyball: Fremantle has attracted 78 per cent of head to head bets with TAB
ADELAIDE v ST KILDA
Adelaide Oval, Monday 7.40pm
We’ve got to wait until Monday for this game, but hopefully for Saints fans it’s worth the wait.
The Saints will be desperate to bounce back after a poor fade saw them lose to Fremantle last week.
St Kilda has lost its past 10 games against Adelaide, but given the Crows’ woes I expect that streak to end.
TAB ODDS: ADELAIDE $3.20 ST KILDA $1.35
Moneyball: St Kilda has attracted 53 per cent of head to head bets with TAB
ROUND 7 HOT MULTI
Western Bulldogs v Essendon $1.92
GWS v Brisbane Lions $1.75
Gold Coast v Sydney $1.72
North Melbourne v Richmond $2.45
Round 7 Hot Multi Price: $14.15
BETS OF NOTE BEFORE ROUND 7
$9,500 multi @ $5.59 on Carlton d Western Bulldogs (Round 6), Melbourne d Hawthorn (Round 7)
$3,000 @ $1.92 on Essendon d Western Bulldogs
$2,000 @ $1.90 on St Kilda -12.5 v Adelaide
$2,000 @ $1.75 on Essendon (Top 8)
$1,000 @ $9 on Brisbane Lions (Premiership)
ROUND 7 MARKET MOVERS
PREMIERSHIP
West Coast were $13 before Round 5 and are currently $7 equal favourites
Port Adelaide were $10 before Round 6 and are now $8
The Brisbane Lions were $6 equal favourites before Round 6 and are now $9
Essendon were $41 before Round 5 and are now $17
Carlton were $81 before Round 6 and are now $41
BROWNLOW MEDAL
Lachie Neale is a commanding $2.60 favourite ($2.75 before Round 6)
COLEMAN MEDAL
Charlie Dixon was $5 favourite before Round 6 and is now $6 equal favourite with Tom Lynch
Charlie Cameron was $5.50 before Round 6 and is now $7
Jeremy Cameron was $6.50 before Round 6 and is now $7
Brody Mihocek was $101 before Round 6 and is now $9
Tom Hawkins was $26 before Round 5; $17 before Round 6 and is now $11
Eddie Betts was $151 before Round 6 and is now $51
RISING STAR
Max King was $17 before Round 5 and is now $3.50 favourite
Izak Rankine was $26 before Round 5 and is now $4
Tom Green was $34 before Round 5 and is now $11
Matt Rowell was $1.01 before Round 5; $21 on Monday and is now $13
MOST LOSSES
Adelaide were $1.25 before Round 6 and are now $1.18
Sydney were $34 before Round 4; $21 before Round 5; $9 before Round 6 and are now $6.50
Fremantle were $3.50 before Round 5; $7 before Round 6 and are now $11
Originally published as Footy Form: Where the value lies for punters in Round 7 of the AFL
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