Every club’s run home, final ladder position predicted with 10 rounds to go
The Blues, Power and Bombers are technically within reach of the eight. But are they really in the finals race? Plus, how many wins are needed to qualify? We predict every game to find out.
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In years to come, supporters of one club will look back on 2025 and wonder: ‘How the hell did we not make the eight?’
The race for the finals is realistically down to nine quality teams.
Carlton, Port Adelaide and Essendon are still technically within touching distance of the eight, with the Blues the most obvious chance, but none of those sides have played near the level of those above them this year.
And so with 10 weeks to go in the home-and-away season, the gap between the serious sides and those making up the numbers is so stark, 14 wins isn’t enough to make our top eight.
SCROLL DOWN FOR THE FULL PREDICTED LADDER
Hawthorn’s rampant start to the year had them as premiership favourites in April, but despite winning 14 games, our final prediction has the Hawks falling agonisingly short of the finals.
That would all come down to a winner-takes-all round 24 meeting with Brisbane at the Gabba, with the reigning premier the team to miss if the Hawks win that game.
Easy runs home for the Bulldogs and Dockers have them roaring past the Hawks.
Clearly, the gap between those at the top and the bottom makes it hard to tip major upsets in the run home, but this prediction would have us set for a classic final few weeks as nine teams try to squeeze into eight spots.
1. COLLINGWOOD
Played: 13, Won: 11, Lost: 2, Percentage: 134
Only once in the storeyed history of Collingwood have the Pies won 20 games in a home-and-away season, in 2011.
Cracking 20 is a monster tally for the Pies, but given their cruisy run home – only two interstate trips to come – it’s hard to tip against Craig McRae’s men each week from here.
2. GEELONG
Played: 14, Won: 10, Lost: 4, Percentage: 133.8
The way the draw looks, the biggest questions around the Cats heading into September may be if they have been tested enough.
Only one game after the round 16 bye is against a top-nine team, bogey side GWS in round 18.
Otherwise Chris Scott’s team runs through also-rans, including a double-up against Richmond.
The Cats should be perfectly rested for another flag tilt.
3. BRISBANE LIONS
Played: 14, Won: 9, Lost: 4, Drawn: 1, Percentage: 110.4
It’s a massive last fortnight for the reigning premier.
Both Fremantle and Hawthorn will aim to push past Brisbane and force the Lions out of the eight in those last two weeks.
That ends a tough close to the year, with Sydney the only side on the agenda in the last six weeks not seriously in the finals hunt.
That final-round meeting with the Hawks could be one of the biggest home-and-away games, in terms of stakes, we have seen in years.
4. ADELAIDE
Played: 14, Won: 9, Lost: 5, Percentage: 135.2
Wonder if that excruciating loss to the Hawks last week will come back to bite the Crows.
Take care of business at home – a three week Adelaide Oval stretch against Gold Coast, Port Adelaide and Hawthorn – and the top four is right within striking distance.
Percentage will be vital, so the Crows will want to make the most of games against the Tigers, Eagles and Roos.
5. HAWTHORN
Played: 14, Won: 9, Lost: 5, Percentage: 111.6
It doesn’t feel right to have the Hawks missing, but they have to beat one of Fremantle (away), Adelaide (away), Collingwood (MCG) and Brisbane (away) to get in.
It’s a knife edge and Sam Mitchell’s team could pluck any of those away wins and suddenly be a top four chance.
It might be really simple by the end – beat Brisbane in round 24 and you’re in.
6. GOLD COAST
Played: 12, Won: 8, Lost: 4, Percentage: 123.2
Long ago the serious conversation around the Suns changed from whether they would make the eight, to whether they would make the four.
Gold Coast has been gifted a dream draw, and even if there are some roadbumps in the next 10 weeks, there are plenty of wins to pick up.
Although, we have had the Suns in position to play finals in mid-June in past seasons and watched it all fall over.
7. GWS GIANTS
Played: 14, Won: 8, Lost: 6, Percentage: 107.6
A double pivot on this fixture will be the two games against Gold Coast in rounds 15 and 23.
Split them and the Giants should play finals, win both and the top four is within reach, lose both and finals may be too far gone.
Those are the fine margins teams are managing.
8. FREMANTLE
Played: 13, Won: 8, Lost: 5, Percentage: 106.6
No excuses for Fremantle from here on out, really.
Hawthorn in round 18 will be a swing game, but that is on home turf, so the Dockers just have to win if they are serious about playing finals.
Tick off the other games and they are there.
But Fremantle has made some mistakes in this situation in recent years.
9. WESTERN BULLDOGS
Played: 13, Won: 7, Lost: 6, Percentage: 127.7
Don’t screenshot this one to save for later.
Any time you think you have a handle on the Dogs, they do something to confuse you, so giving them 16 wins seems a bit of a stretch.
But they should knock over most sides and only travel twice on the run home.
As usual, the ball is in their court.
10. CARLTON
Played: 13, Won: 6, Lost: 7, Percentage: 106.7
The Blues are the best chance to vault into the finals conversation, but they’ll have to win at least seven of their 10 games.
Hard to find those wins, with clashes against Collingwood, Brisbane, Hawthorn and Fremantle to come.
There is some hope, but it looks too tough from here.
11. PORT ADELAIDE
Played: 13, Won: 6, Lost: 7, Percentage: 84.7
Ken Hinkley has never won less than 10 games in his 12 seasons as Power coach, so it would be a shame to go out with his worst year.
The Power have shown signs of improvement, and could get into the mix with home wins over Sydney and Carlton in the next fortnight, but it’s a tougher run from there.
12. ESSENDON
Played: 13, Won: 6, Lost: 7, Percentage: 78.9
The Bombers have gone 3-11 across the final seven games of each of the last two seasons, and a similar run home looms here.
Before the smashing against Geelong, Essendon had fought well in the back end of matches, but given the injury list, this is a bottom four team right now.
The percentage of 78.9 only betters Richmond and West Coast, and a game against Richmond in round 18 might be the best chance of a win from here.
13. SYDNEY
Played: 13, Won: 5, Lost: 8, Percentage: 90.1
The Swans are a below average team, and it’s hard to see where they beat the teams above them from here.
Maybe with Errol Gulden on the way back they can rediscover some 2024 form and build for next season.
14. ST KILDA
Played: 13, Won: 5, Lost: 8, Percentage: 87.8
The Saints won 13 games in Ross Lyon’s first return season, 11 last year and are on track to continue the decline this season.
That won’t be a big surprise to those inside Moorabbin as St Kilda builds for the future, but there is certainly no winning progression.
15. MELBOURNE
Played: 14, Won: 5, Lost: 9, Percentage: 87.1
Have to go back to 2019 to find a full-length season in which the Demons didn’t hit double-digit wins.
The Dees have shown some progression in changing their gamestyle but they make similar errors regularly, and face a difficult run home.
16. NORTH MELBOURNE
Played: 13, Won: 3, Lost: 9, Drawn: 1, Percentage: 80.6
An unfortunate note that finishing 16th will be North Melbourne’s best result since before Covid.
The Roos can be tough to get past on their day so could pinch a game against Melbourne, Carlton or St Kilda and try and get closer to six wins.
17. RICHMOND
Played: 13, Won: 3, Lost: 10, Percentage: 69.4
Has the Richmond season already been a success, even if the Tigers lose out from here?
Given the state of the list, Tigers fans may be happy with the bright spots they have seen so far.
Of course, another win or two would always be welcome.
18. WEST COAST
Played: 14, Won: 1, Lost: 13, Percentage: 65.1
The Eagles are all-but guaranteed to land the club’s third wooden spoon, continuing a dire run in the past four years.
Just two wins out of 23 is pitiful.
Originally published as Every club’s run home, final ladder position predicted with 10 rounds to go
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