David King profiles all AFL clubs and who they must trade or pick up during upcoming trade period
CLUBS now take a look a good hard look at themselves. While what they see is important — who they get — and/or trade is critical.
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KNOWING what stage of the premiership cycle you reside in can be the difference between evolving and contending or becoming lost in the never-ending black hole of futile five-year plans.
It’s the AFL’s game of snakes and ladders, and all teams move and shake on decisions made over direction.
“Where is my club at?” It’s the AFL’s most critically asked question. It requires honesty, but more importantly, accuracy, for all clubs at the end of the season. It is the assessment of the collective, which includes the senior coach, the list manager, recruiting staff and heads of the football department.
Are we rebuilding? Are we heading to the national draft? Are we diving into the trade/free agency market? Are we a contender? How do we get out of “no man’s land”? Will this coach take us there?
In financial terms any miscalculation is significant, but on-field it means wasted seasons. This is where boards must step up and show strong leadership and business acumen to keep their clubs moving in the right direction.
Fremantle sacked Mark Harvey and appointed Ross Lyon with a daring raid that almost immediately propelled the Dockers from no man’s land to “genuine contender”. It’s impossible to argue this ruthless assessment was anything but an outrageous success.
Carlton decided Brett Ratten wasn’t the man to take Carlton from the “knife’s edge”, where every decision is critical, into the genuine contender section and got it wrong. Back 60 spaces and start the cycle again.
The Blues must draft extremely well this year because they are at the low end of the developmental “primary school” stage. If Carlton is not honest with itself again it will regress even further. No more Dale Thomas-type deals this year.
St Kilda understands it is in the infancy of a rebuild and its accuracy on draft selections and trade options will dictate its term in purgatory.
Chris Pelchen must give Alan Richardson better stock next season to help the Saints out of ground zero. After all, picks 12 and 13 were almost blue-chip selections for Tom Lee and Tom Hickey. Back five spaces, please.
Trading the No. 1 pick may be a factor in the recovery, but are the Saints courageous or creative enough?
Fremantle is entrenched in the genuine contender zone, but hasn’t made its life any easier by taking on Scott Gumbleton and Colin Sylvia and moving back three spaces. It doesn’t appear disastrous, but compared to Sydney and Hawthorn, it’s considerable. Luke McPharlin’s injury may cause Lyon to miss another turn. Imagine if Mitch Clark and Jarrad Waite were obtainable at season’s end. Then it would be move forward eight spaces.
Melbourne is yet to roll a double and get the rebuild started. The Dees also are at ground zero and will have to hit every ladder for Paul Roos to be considered a success. Roos appears to be more interested in Monopoly, but James Frawley leaving may just propel them forward five spaces. The Mitch Clark loss was a big one — back 15 spaces.
The quicksand in the no man’s land section of the cycle has swallowed multiple clubs. North Melbourne, Essendon, Adelaide, Collingwood and Richmond have jockeyed for position in no man’s land every season for the past three or four years. They never really bottom out, but never threaten either.
The Crows nabbed James Podsiadly and Eddie Betts with success, moving forward five spaces, but what does it mean if they remain in no man’s land? At the end of next seasons they will have Taylor Walker, Rory Sloane and Patrick Dangerfield coming out of contract, so acquiring another free agent may prove tricky financially considering the funds needed later.
The Kangaroos committed to Nick Dal Santo because they believe their time is over the next one, two or three seasons. If not, why attract a player at 30 years of age? Another free agent is required.
Essendon’s injury snake seems to keep popping its head up at Tullamarine but the daddy of all snakes, the ASADA python, still threatens and if it takes hold the Bombers could be back to ground zero. Co-coaches taking turns rolling the dice would be interesting.
The Pies have fallen from genuine contention two or three years ago to no man’s land, but trust Matthew Scharenberg, Nathan Freeman and co. to elevate their status. Free agency snakes Quentin Lynch and Jesse White have taken them back five to 10 spaces. Enough.
Richmond’s season hasn’t wallpapered over any cracks. All that could go wrong has gone wrong, but is this late- season ladder a false dawn? A snake in disguise? The suspension snake hit Reece Conca and, more venomously, Ty Vickery.
Sydney has written the book on snakes and ladders. While they’ve never been short of funds, credit must be given to the Swans’ bravery and daring over the past two years. They got Lance Franklin when others didn’t dare to dream. Move forward 10 spaces.
The rise of Ben McGlynn and the remarkable form of Josh Kennedy encapsulate exactly what the greater trade/draft game of snakes and ladders is all about. John Longmire has a no-snakes policy. While Franklin loomed as a pre-season snake, his recent form has Sydney almost atop the ladder on square 100 — the premiership square.
Geelong resides consistently in the genuine contender zone, but the Tom Hawkins vertebrae could prove a snake of real concern. It could be season over, move back 10 spaces. The possible luring of James Frawley may be just the ladder required to again reach the top in 2015. Steve Johnson’s fitness is an injury snake that concerns. Miss one turn.
The Western Bulldogs need a key forward. Can they trade in to the Patrick McCartin pick? The Jonathan Patton attempt came up snake eyes.
Greater Western Sydney and the Gold Coast Suns must leapfrog from no man’s land straight into contention. Is Patton on the table? How many gun midfielder draftees can be offered for trade?
Port Adelaide must engage in the trade period by using John Butcher’s currency. Adding Matthew White and Jared Polec propelled the Power forward 10 spaces. Jay Schulz needs assistance and diminished ruck stocks could be a late-season snake.
Brisbane was snake infested at season’s end last year, losing a batch of potential young guns. But Lewis Taylor could be this year’s Rising Star ladder, with James Aish only a rung or two below. Back to the national draft for Justin Leppitsch as he just keeps rolling doubles.
Hawthorn trades out snakes and brings in ladders and is seldom on the wrong end of any player swaps. Cyril Rioli would be a significant late ladder when fit.
We question the players and coaches all the time, but the puppet masters in the back office will dictate your club’s fortunes more than anyone else.
Originally published as David King profiles all AFL clubs and who they must trade or pick up during upcoming trade period
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