Cap space: How Geelong is trying to reset its premiership list

The Cats appear set for the future at either end of the ground, but how do the 2022 premiers reload in the middle as some of their best age out? Some of the answers may surprise you.

Geelong would consider itself pretty sorted for bookends.

At one end they have the best spearhead in the game in Jeremy Cameron and down the other its 22-year-old premiership hero Sam De Koning.

Plus, there is the Henry brothers, Jack and Ollie, Tom Hawkins wants to go around again next year, and young tall Shannon Neale is in development mode.

But it is in the middle of the ground that the blue and white baton is about to be passed.

It is a challenge not beyond the list management masterminds who have helped keep this ridiculously successful club at the top for about two decades.

If they miss finals this year it will be only the third time in 20 years they have failed to make the eight.

But it won’t be lost on the Cats that five of the six players named to start in the middle of the ground in last year’s glorious premiership triumph over Sydney will start next season 31 or older.

And this season, there has been a drop-off in the guts.

Geelong has slumped from sixth last year to 14th for clearances, and from fourth to 10th for contested possessions in their premiership defence, according to Champion Data.

The Cats also rank last in the competition for the number of times a midfielder has racked up at least 25 disposals in a game.

Strangely, Geelong has registered only eight 25-plus possession hauls from a midfielder this year, compared to 17th-ranked North Melbourne (21) and 16th-ranked Richmond (24).

At the top of the list is Collingwood (50), Hawthorn (46), GWS (45) and the Western Bulldogs (44). Clearly, those clubs have some elite midfield stars.

For Geelong, some of that decline is talent and some is injury.

Cam Guthrie has missed the bulk of the year with a serious toe problem and it is a shame top-10 draft pick Jhye Clark suffered a bone stress injury in his foot.

But the Cats have a bit of an age gap issue.

And the query is whether there is enough elite ballwinning talent in their prime for the Cats’ next chapter.

Patrick Dangerfield needs some help in the middle. Picture: Albert Perez/AFL Photos via Getty Images

Joel Selwood retired, Isaac Smith is 34, Patrick Dangerfield 33, Mark Blicavs and Mitch Duncan are 32, Sam Menegola 31, Cam Guthrie turns 31 this month and Tom Stewart, who has stepped into the middle for big chunks late this season, is 30.

The Cats have defied the age profile many times, but the cliff edge is close for a few premiership stars.

And behind the scenes these next two years are big on the planning front as the midfield shifts into something of a new era.

At the forefront are young trio Tanner Bruhn, 21, Max Holmes, 20, and Clark, 19.

Bruhn has had an encouraging year linking up, Holmes has huge upside with his power and speed, and first-year ballwinner Clark is considered solid as a rock.

Tom Atkins, 27, has been another outstanding find from the VFL but was quiet early on in 2023, while Jack Bowes, 25, has settled into defence.

The jury might be a little out still on Brandan Parfitt, 25, who has played only six games this year at 10 disposals apiece, and was the sub on the weekend.

But it is that decent-sized gap between the crew who are still attending 21st birthday parties and the 30-year-old premiership heroes that will be addressed.

There is scope for a prized midfielder to enter the mix from a rival club. Some more class and polish.

And if list boss Andrew Mackie and legendary talent-spotter Stephen Wells are up to their old tricks, the club will make the most of its destination club appeal and target a big fish in the prime age bracket.

A new Dangerfield. A marquee ballwinner. A star playmaker. Another A-Grader.

Someone like Essendon’s Darcy Parish, a free agent who said he wants to stay at the Bombers, or Bulldog Bailey Smith, who faces a big decision on his future when he comes out of contract next year.

Geelong has high hopes for young midfielder Tanner Bruhn. Picture: Michael Klein

Sydney’s Dylan Stephens is a No.5 pick, and is weighing up his next move amid interest from North Melbourne.

Then there’s Adelaide hard-nut Matt Crouch, who has reignited his career over the past three weeks after sitting on the shelf in the SANFL for the best part of the past two years.

Brisbane’s Hugh McCluggage is a top-line free agent next year. Would Kangaroo Tarryn Thomas be worth the punt despite the off-field issues? Clubs are watching him super closely.

Sydney’s Ollie Florent is silky smooth. Gold Coast’s Sam Flanders, a pick 11, has interest.

Down the order Finlay Macrae from Collingwood wants a go and Carlton’s Paddy Dow is up for grabs. Melbourne’s James Jordon wants opportunity.

There are options.

Geelong is a club which doesn’t go for long rebuilds, and they don’t mind taking a risk either, list boss Mackie told the Herald Sun last year.

“What we do know is this competition is even, so if you make a binary decision to say, ‘We are rebuilding’ then that is potential pain for a long time,” Mackie said.

“What’s the point of being conservative and safe?

“We could do that. But we are really open and OK to explore outside the norm. We have had to.

“If we see something we like, we aren’t afraid to pull the trigger.”

The Cats tried hard for Jacob Hopper, but in the end baulked at a seven-year deal.

If history is anything to go by, the Cats will aim high on the talent scale in a bid to find another elite player to help lead the midfield.

But they don’t overpay.

The rewards are the silverware, they say, rather than the bank balance.

And Geelong won’t rely on just free agents. They stumped up early picks in trades for Cameron and Dangerfield, and Brad Ottens before free agency came in.

And Bulldogs’ line-breaker Smith looms as the most intriguing option.

IS BULLDOG BAILEY HAPPY?

Geelong has repeatedly doused the flames on the chatter about Smith.

But the club had half an eye on Smith back in the 2018 national draft before he joined the Bulldogs.

It was weeks out from that year’s super draft, and interstate clubs had a gut feel Smith was a flight risk, and preferred to stay home in Victoria.

It was a long shot, but the Cats had all their fingers and toes crossed Smith would slip past the Bulldogs’ pick (seven) to Geelong’s pick 15.

After the Dogs there were five interstate club picks, plus North Melbourne was locked into Tarryn Thomas and Collingwood was taking Isaac Quaynor as part of the old next generation academy selection system.

And if the Dogs went for Zak Butters at pick 7 as some suspected, the Cats were hopeful Smith could slide all the way to them.

The Cats are keeping a close eye on Bailey Smith. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images

While it wasn’t to be, leaving the Cats with Jordan Clark at pick 15 that year, fast-forward five years and the jungle drums are once again beating about Geelong and the man with the mullet.

Not for this season, but next year when Smith comes out of contract is the hot tip in recruiting circles.

The Dogs have a salary cap squeeze on their hands as they try to sign-up big men Aaron Naughton, Tim English and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan.

And Smith would love to spend more time onball rather than on the forward flank.

The Dogs have a midfield logjam, while the Cats have a job vacancy.

WHAT WOULD HE COST?

The Dogs are confident Smith stays, but the club would want a top-10 pick if the goalkicking midfielder chose to exit next year.

Josh Dunkley was last year traded to Brisbane Lions for pick 21 and a future first-rounder.

There was also a swap of other second, third and fourth-round selections as part of a drawn-out negotiation.

But if Smith wants to go, it would have to be for a single-figure draft pick.

Crouch from Adelaide is an unrestricted free agent, and would cost nothing in a trade.

The Swans would want a first-round pick for Stephens, and North Melbourne would want something in the top 20 for Thomas, who has overcome some off-field issues this year.

Carlton’s Dow and Jordon, from Melbourne, could come cheaply, but aren’t a top dog option.

AIR-SAVA

Geelong is at risk of losing Esava Ratugolea to a long-term deal from Port Adelaide after the key defender lost his spot in the senior team.

Few players have wanted out of Geelong over the years, but Ratugolea has resisted Geelong’s attempts to re-sign him in 2023 after making a trade request to the Power last season.

Some think the Cats’ defence is better without him, but after losing Henry to another foot injury last week, Ratugolea could yet have a key role in the run home.

The problem with a deal is Port Adelaide has work to do to rearrange its draft hand after trading out its future first and second-round picks this year for Jason Horne-Francis and Willie Rioli.

It means Port has to make moves to bring in picks this year to satisfy the Cats.

Esava Ratugolea could be on the way out of the Cattery. Picture: Quinn Rooney/Getty Images

If not, Geelong will target Port’s future first-rounder as part of a deal, which Port would almost certainly baulk at.

Those trade games are to be played out, but the writing on the wall suggests Ratugolea walks.

RUCK PRODIGY

Veteran rucks Rhys Stanley and Jon Ceglar, both 32, have decisions to make on their futures.

The Cats are excited about the upside of young tall Toby Conway (taken with pick 24 in 2021) despite a foot injury which derailed his season.

The plan is for the 20-year-old to get some exposure at senior level next season, but he will need at least one of Stanley or Ceglar to stay.

The Cats are not expected to make a strong play for Melbourne’s Brodie Grundy, as the club believes Conway is the man to take it forward in the ruck.

The Geelong Falcon, who has grown to 206cm this year, was All-Australian at the national championships in his draft year.

The Cats have previously shown an interest in Dockers big man Sean Darcy, but the star ruck has said he’s staying in the west.

Originally published as Cap space: How Geelong is trying to reset its premiership list