Analysis: The facts that show Essendon’s sluggish start to the season should be no surprise

Essendon was belted by Adelaide on Saturday and while the defensive play wasn’t up to scratch, the 0-2 start could hardly be a surprise given steps taken by the club in recent years.

Publicly, Brad Scott refuses to use inexperience as an excuse but privately Essendon will be well across of the bare numbers that show why they aren’t really in the running for the finals.

Essendon was crushed by Adelaide on Saturday, giving up 36 scoring shots as the Crows totalled up 161 points.

In 259 games as a coach across North Melbourne and Essendon, Scott has only conceded more three times as lackadaisical pressure meant the Crows wandered through the red and black defence with ease during an MCG massacre.

Brad Scott speaks to his players during the loss to Adelaide. Picture: Morgan Hancock/AFL Photos

Scott put it on his players in a stinging review, not mincing words by declaring that their effort was just not up to standard.

The defensive work was poor by the Bombers, but the result may not be that far removed from the standard the team is expecting this year.

Dons CEO Craig Vozzo said before the season started: “As far as our aspiration, we want to make finals, we are not shying away from that”.

It was a sentence that got some hopes up among Bombers fans but the club has actively steered away from slipping into the bottom reaches of the top eight under a the current regime led by Vozzo, Scott, president Dave Barham and list boss Matt Rosa.

It has been a deliberate strategy to stop the cycle of topping up and finishing eighth.

The Essendon side that was cut up by Adelaide had an average games experience of 74.4, more than 20 games below the Crows (94.7).

Only Richmond (66.7) was lower in round 2 and the Dons and Tigers tied as the youngest team with an average age of 24 years and 3 months.

It could hardly be a surprise the Bombers are 0-2 when you tally those numbers, even as a spirited effort against Hawthorn was followed up with a deflating loss to Adelaide.

Scott deflected any thoughts that being younger could result in the down effort of Saturday, or it is an excuse, but a general fact of footy is that it is harder to win when you have less experience.

Ben McKay competes with Taylor Walker. Picture: Morgan Hancock/AFL Photos

“We are capable. The club talks about all the stuff they have done (to the list), my job is to coach this team,” he said.

“Whether you are dealing with injuries, you are dealing with youth, my job is to coach the team. I am not interested in even insinuating if there is any excuse with youth. I think we have a capable team and we expect more.”

The Bombers have cut swath through a mediocre list in recent years and largely replaced that with draftees and have made no apologies.

The clearest example of the long-term thinking was letting goalkicker Jake Stringer go in the trade period, with Scott telling this masthead in January that letting him walk was in part because “we were at a different stage where we were looking to go a little bit younger”.

Stringer is now injured and hoping to return soon for GWS, but if was fit, he would clearly make Essendon more likely to win now than the teen who has taken his spot on the list.

But Stringer is less likely to matter in three years time.

Jake Stringer is now in orange. Picture: Phil Hillyard

When you trim back experience on your list it generally hurts your depth more than anything.

The Bombers had experienced heads like Will Setterfield, Jordan Ridley, Darcy Parish, Jayden Laverde, Peter Wright, Kyle Langford, Matt Guelfi and Nik Cox on their injury list last week.

Every team has injuries, but at the Bombers that now means players on the edge like Zach Reid, Archie Roberts, Jye Menzie and Ben Hobbs simply must play.

In the Bombers’ reserves side that beat Williamstown on Saturday, only Alwyn Davey and Todd Goldstein had played an AFL game for the club.

That’s depth equal to a Married At First Sight relationship.

If the heat is coming on Dylan Shiel or Ben McKay for some defensive mishaps, by reshaping the list in the direction of youth, it means the Dons would have to punt on a youngster to play better.

So while Vozzo may have been right when he said the Bombers aspire to play finals, that doesn’t mean they expect to.

While Scott will demand and hope for better effort this week against Port Adelaide, the Bombers sit where they probably should – a team that right now isn’t in the mix for September.

Originally published as Analysis: The facts that show Essendon’s sluggish start to the season should be no surprise