AFL Moneyball 2022: All the latest in trades, free agency and player contracts
Melbourne knew the ‘go-home factor’ could be a risk when it drafted Luke Jackson. As the young ruck moves closer to a WA return, this is why the Demons chose him anyway.
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Melbourne weighed up the go-home risk with star ruckman Luke Jackson when it drafted the versatile tall, but were convinced he could become the best ruckman in the game.
The premiership big man is expected to head home at the end of a season as part of a blockbuster move to Western Australia.
While Fremantle is considered in the box seat as it is in the premiership window, West Coast has a higher first pick and has a stronger hand to land Jackson.
But the Demons would demand the Eagles’ first pick (currently No. 2) if he made a surprise choice to head to West Coast over Fremantle.
It sets the scene for interesting trade negotiations as Melbourne become more pessimistic about the prospects of Jackson staying beyond this season.
The Demons, led by gun national recruiting manager Jason Taylor, were aware there was a risk Jackson may want to return home to WA early in his career given his strong family relationships.
The issue has been front of mind throughout his first few years at the Demons although Melbourne was confident he would stay as the club broke its premiership drought last season.
Melbourne weighed up Jackson against the inside midfield powers of Tom Green in 2019, but Taylor at the time said Jackson had the potential to be the game’s top ruckman throughout the bulk of his career.
“I don’t have any doubts with him,” Taylor said in a club video.
“Could be the best ruckman for next 10 years. Should be.”
If Jackson, as widely expected, does leave it gives the Demons more room to keep star ballwinner Angus Brayshaw.
Essendon has circled the versatile playmaker who has played A-Grade football on the back flank and wing, but his potential as an inside midfielder is yet to be fully explored at AFL level.
The Bombers want to keep their top draft picks but have the salary cap room to jag a free agent such as Brayshaw who could walk to the club for nothing.
Essendon missed out on Gold Coast spearhead Ben King when he re-signed with the Suns despite extensive efforts from the Bombers to land the gun goal kicker.
Sam Weideman is another interesting key forward / back-up ruck prospect who is contracted for one more season, but has struggled to cement himself in the senior side.
Weideman has played 57 games in seven years and is a free agent next year, meaning he can walk to the club of his choice.
Essendon football manager Josh Mahoney was at Melbourne when the Demons took Weideman at No. 9 in the 2015 national draft.
But the Demons may be reluctant to let Weideman go if Jackson departs, leaving the club light on for talls.
VIC CLUBS FACE COMPETITION FOR DOCKER
Throw Sydney into the market for Fremantle’s Griffin Logue as he considers his football future.
The uncontracted swingman has multiple suitors but the Western Bulldogs and Collingwood will likely be priced out of the market given a strong market for his services.
He would be the perfect stopping defender to play alongside the McCartin brothers after a decade of brilliant service from Dane Rampe, who has just turned 32.
If Fremantle is to lure Luke Jackson they will need multiple first-round picks to satisfy Melbourne and trading Logue is the best avenue to that end.
Jackson’s purchase of a house close to Fremantle’s headquarters in March has intensified speculation he will get to the Dockers but it is an investment property which his family lives in.
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Tigers make play to keep breakout star
Richmond has upped its offer to Liam Baker as it tries to ward off a hometown assault from West Coast.
The Tigers are believed to have offered Baker around $600,000 over two years, which would reward his brilliant form as the Tigers’ jack-of-all-trades.
Richmond is attempting to reconfigure its midfield and while it has interest in both GWS midfielders Jacob Hopper and Tim Taranto, the Tigers are believed to favour Hopper.
Hopper has battled all year with a knee injury that required multiple surgeries but has a touch of class to go with his strong inside clearance game.
But there is no point the Tigers securing Hopper and losing Baker, who can easily play as a centre square midfielder as well as forward and back
Baker is considering whether to return to West Australia to be closer to family but is yet to make a decision on his future.
Richmond has its own first-rounder and North Melbourne’s second-rounder so is well stocked if it can retain Baker and offer early picks for Hopper.
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SUNS IDENTIFY KEY LIST HOLE
Gold Coast is scouring the market for running half backs, with Stuart Dew’s declaration that the club needed established talent throwing up all kinds of names.
One of them is Fremantle defender Nathan Wilson, one of a long list of classy defenders who the Suns will consider.
A piercing kick, the 29-year-old has played two AFL games and nine WAFL games given form and injury but is one of many Dockers who could leave the club for the right price.
The Suns have a dozen or so names who have emerged but it will need to replace its ACL victims in Connor Budarick, Lachie Weller and Wil Powell in the short-term so a veteran like Wilson would appeal.
BLUES PONDER CUTTING TOP PICK FOR CAP SPACE
Carlton is in a strong position to trade midfielder Paddy Dow on the back of his excellent VFL form to help create some salary cap relief.
Dow has been unable to establish himself in the senior side this season but has maintained the rage at VFL level as a back-up to top-liners Patrick Cripps, George Hewett and Adam Cerra.
Dow, 22, is contracted for next season, but the Blues may flip the onballer out to help free up cash to keep star goal kickers Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay who are both out of contract next season.
Geelong wants to bolster its midfield as a priority this season and is weighing up a host of midfielders including free agents Jordan De Goey and Angus Brayshaw and star Tim Taranto, Tanner Bruhn and Dow.
The Cats have room in their salary cap to land another jet ballwinner but whether they are prepared to pull the trigger on De Goey, in particular, is unclear.
Carlton will be under significant salary cap strain next year but have a plan to keep its priority talls if they are also, like Cripps, prepared to take a little less than their market rate.
Dow, a pick No. 3, has played only one game this season, racking up 21 disposals including 15 handballs in the Round 15 loss to Collingwood.
Sneaky tricks agents are using to chase future footy stars
Player management companies are keeping the AFL Players’ Association busy at the moment.
The Herald Sun revealed a fortnight ago that a leading player agency was under investigation for breaching strict rules on when they can speak to prospective AFL footballers.
That inquiry is ongoing and the AFLPA is so far declining to comment, as is policy, but it’s understood a further four player management firms are also under investigation for similar breaches.
Agents are not allowed to speak to a footballer, or their parents, until October 1 in their 16th year and can’t officially sign them until immediately after the draft in the year before their own eligibility.
Jagga Smith, arguably the leading prospect in the 2024 draft at this early stage, is just one of the footballers who player managers are clamouring over despite him not being old enough.
Accusations range from privately contacting teenagers on Instagram or text, to approaching them or their parents at games, and even organising a group training session for top prospects.
Agents are supposed to alert the AFLPA when they have a prior relationship with a player, or their parents, that may mean there are interactions before that October 1 timeline.
The signing and conduct regulations still apply in those circumstances – even if there’s an unspoken agreement on future arrangements – but it means there is some grey area as well.
Rival companies are now keeping an eagle eye on each other as the AFLPA cracks down on breaches, which will almost certainly result in fines and possibly extra sanctions.
There is a belief in some quarters the rules should prevent agents speaking only to the teenage players and not also their parents, whereas others argue parents aren’t educated enough in the early stages.
Connors Sports’ Paul Connors, TLA’s Tom Petroro and Kapital Sports’ Peter Lenton are on the AFLPA agents’ accreditation board that is overseeing the investigations.
Hogan tracking towards new deal
The Giants’ investment in Jesse Hogan continues to pay off.
Many clubs were unwilling to take the risk on Hogan’s body, on top of some off-field indiscretions, once it became obvious that Fremantle was shopping him around at the end of 2020.
It hasn’t all been smooth sailing and he had the odd soft-tissue hiccup last year but GWS periodically rested him from games this season – including this weekend – and reduced his training loads.
The result is Hogan’s most games (14) and goals (25) since his career-best 2018 season for Melbourne, when he kicked 47 majors from 20 matches.
“I haven’t played over 12 games since 2018 and I haven’t had an injury this year, so physically I’m feeling really good and I’m running out games really solidly,” the 27-year-old told SEN.
“So, if I can finish this last little block of five weeks and take aim for next year; I’m really excited to see what level I can get to.
“I’ve worked really closely with the medical staff to get the right program for me.
“Unfortunately, I can’t do the three training sessions a week and really smash my body like I could when I was 20 but I can still do it in other ways.”
Hogan has signed consecutive one-year deals for the Giants but discussions are progressing on what will likely be a multi-year contract this time around.
Mid-season trading an uncomfortable topic
The AFL, from Gillon McLachlan down, has tried to increase player movement in recent years and the next frontier is in-season trading.
The mid-season rookie draft is proving a great success but players remain lukewarm on the prospect of being traded during a campaign.
Even then, footballers who do support the concept mainly see value in only certain scenarios, most regularly in ruck-ravaged clubs being able to draw on rivals’ depth.
“It would be strange playing against a guy at the start of the year, then him coming into the side and you‘ve got guys taking all your game plan info over to another team and those sorts of things,” Adelaide’s Brodie Smith told the Herald Sun.
“Maybe even some sort of loan system (might work better) – I think there’s definitely room for it.
“Situations presented this year where clubs could have used it, so it‘d be a strange one and tough to get used to, but a lot of other sports do it, so maybe it’s time we need to catch up.”
Giant Nick Haynes doubted star players would ever be exchanged mid-year in the AFL, while Sydney ruckman Peter Ladhams, who was traded last year, was against an in-season swap-fest.
There is support for first-round draftees’ contracts to increase from two to three years, which is a negotiation point in the next CBA, but Carlton’s Matt Kennedy believes the status quo should remain.
Ryder says don’t worry about the Achilles
—Nick Smart
St Kilda veteran Paddy Ryder has baulked at any suggestions he may have played his last AFL game, declaring he wants to play on in 2023.
Ryder, 34, has been sidelined by a calf injury and is expected to return this year only if the 10th-placed Saints can arrest their form slump and play finals.
The out-of-contract ruckman said on Thursday he wanted to extend his 281-game career into next season.
“I think at this time of year as an older bloke your contract comes up and there is always doubt surrounding it,” Ryder said.
“My best footy, when I’m fit, is still pretty good.
“So I will just get through the next few weeks with the calf and re-evaluate everything and have a think about it, but I’m looking forward to hopefully playing on.”
When asked if he was currently in contract talks with the Saints, Ryder said:
“Not really, there hasn’t been anything (discussed with the club yet), but that’s not to say no one is interested or anything.
“We’ve just been focused on playing footy, winning games and everything like that.
“It hasn’t been in the forefront of my mind but I’m sure over the next couple of weeks, now that I’ve got a little bit of time, there will be some conversations happening.
Ryder said he did not relish the thought of trying to find a fourth AFL club in 2023.
“I’d rather stay rather than moving clubs all the time,” he laughed.
“I’ve enjoyed my time at the Saints.
“I’ve got some really close mates there and family in Bradley Hill, so I’d rather not leave.”
“Over the past couple of weeks I could feel both of my calves starting to fatigue a little bit.
“The club knew about it, I’m really honest with the way I feel.
“The good thing is my Achilles, which everyone thinks is sore, I’ve been able to get that right with the physios and docs.
“This is just a little hiccup with the calf.”
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