AFL Grand Final 2024: An early look at where the Sydney v Brisbane Lions premiership decider will be won
It’s the all-conquering Swans against the AFL’s new Houdini side Brisbane — and it promises to be a Grand Final for the ages. CHRIS CAVANAGH breaks down where it will be won and lost.
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Sydney and Brisbane playing for the ultimate prize in Melbourne.
It only makes sense in AFL Grand Final week.
The Swans have been the best side all year and bar a qualifying final scare from GWS, have progressed to the decider with little fuss in recent weeks.
The Lions, meanwhile, have become the AFL’s new Houdini act by surviving a 44-point deficit against GWS and coming from 25 points down to defeat Geelong.
It promises to be a captivating end to the season.
CHRIS CAVANAGH breaks down where the decider will be won and lost.
SYDNEY
POWERFUL OUTFIT
The Swans were offensively scintillating during their preliminary final against Port Adelaide, punishing the Power for their mistakes.
They scored 12.4 (76) from turnovers, among their total of 14.11 (95) for the game.
It has been a common theme throughout the year.
Sydney has been the No. 1 team in the competition for scoring from turnovers, averaging 56.2 points per game.
But the Swans also rank No. 3 for scores from stoppages at 37.4 points a game.
With a powerful midfield and a dangerous forward line, they are a side that can hurt you in multiple ways – which makes them incredibly dangerous.
TWO BIG FITNESS TESTS
All eyes will be on two Swans this week as they look to prove themselves fit to feature in the Grand Final.
Captain Callum Mills sat in the coaches’ box on Friday night as he continues his recovery from a hamstring injury that he suffered at training on September 10.
Mills trained well on Friday in what coach John Longmire said was a “good sign”, but his selection could be a big risk given the season decider is only 18 days on from the injury.
Key forward Logan McDonald had his left foot in a bucket of ice after hurting his ankle during the third quarter of the preliminary final.
However, Longmire said post-game that McDonald “seemed okay” and it appeared to be only a rolled ankle.
BEEN HERE BEFORE
This will be Sydney’s fifth Grand Final appearance since John Longmire took the reins as coach in 2011.
That’s quite a remarkable feat.
Longmire steered the side to a premiership over Hawthorn in 2012, but the past three appearances on footy’s biggest stage have ended in tears for Sydney fans.
In 2014, the Swans were thumped by Hawthorn to the tune of 63 points after entering as favourites, while they also went in as favourites in 2016 before falling to the Western Bulldogs by 22 points.
Then in 2022, Sydney got blown off the park by Geelong in an 81-point defeat – the equal-fifth biggest Grand Final loss in VFL/AFL history.
While this Swans side is different to years gone by, they wouldn’t want to suffer another Grand Final flop.
HAVE NO FEAR
Across 2024, the Swans hold a 19-6 record entering the Grand Final.
There are only three teams that they have not beaten at least once this season – Brisbane Lions, St Kilda and wooden spoon winner Richmond.
Five of their six losses came during a six-week block between rounds 16 and 21, but they have since bounced back to win five games on the trot in a strong lead-up to the premiership decider.
THE MCG FACTOR
The Swans don’t play many games at the MCG but don’t have the best recent record at the venue, either.
Since the 2022 Grand Final, they have won just two of eight games at the ground.
That said, Sydney has gone 2-1 from games at the MCG this year, overcoming Collingwood (33 points) in round 1 and Hawthorn (76 points) in round 7.
The one loss was to Richmond by five points in round three, which was one of only two games the Tigers triumphed in this season.
CASUALTY LIST
SYDNEY
Callum Mills (hamstring) test
Logan McDonald (ankle) test
BRISBANE LIONS
NEVER SAY DIE
Last year it was Collingwood which was the competition’s Houdini side.
This finals series, Brisbane has taken that tag.
The Lions overcame a 44-point deficit to win their semi-final against Greater Western Sydney and didn’t give up after falling 25 points down during the third quarter against Geelong in the preliminary final.
The wins the past two weeks have shown just how dangerous a side Brisbane is – regardless of what the scoreboard says.
Even when the Cats were dominating territory in the last quarter on Saturday night, the Lions found a way to win.
ALL HAIL, FAGAN
Sam Mitchell might be the coach of the year, but it’s not hard to mount a compelling case for Chris Fagan.
Nothing went right for the Lions at the start of the year.
After round 7, they held a 2-5 record.
The following week they lost senior players Darcy Gardiner and Lincoln McCarthy to season-ending knee injuries, following earlier ACL’s for Tom Doedee and Keidean Coleman.
But Fagan stuck to the plan, reiterated to his players that they weren’t going as bad as it seemed and the got the wheel to turn.
Brisbane enters the Grand Final having scored 15 wins and a draw from its past 19 matches.
Who would have thought?
BIG O-NO
Oscar McInerney has been crucial for the Lions in what has been a career-best campaign for the big ruckman.
But a dislocated shoulder could keep him out of the Grand Final in what would be a sizeable blow for the side.
The player they call ‘The Big-O’ recorded 22 disposals, nine clearances and six score involvements in a huge performance last time the Lions and Swans met in round 19.
McInerney initially returned to the field after the untimely preliminary final injury, but was soon subbed out and was later taken to hospital for assessment.
Fellow ruckman Darcy Fort was one of Brisbane’s emergencies for the clash with the Cats.
The 31-year-old will be ready if required, but Fort has played only two senior games this year – the most recent coming in round 7.
FORWARD FIREPOWER
The Lions have avenues to goal up forward that some other clubs could only dream of having.
And they don’t necessarily need many opportunities to hit the scoreboard.
In the final quarter of the preliminary final, Brisbane booted 4.1 from just eight inside-50s.
Geelong had 22 entries during the same period for a return 2.5.
Joe Daniher has been the Lions leading goalkicker this year, but they won the preliminary final without him kicking a goal as Callum Ah Chee, Zac Bailey, Cam Rayner, Charlie Cameron, Logan Morris and Kai Lohmann all stepped up.
Eric Hipwood has also had his moments this year.
CAN THEY HOLD SWAY?
Brisbane has had the wood over Sydney in recent years.
Since 2019, the Lions hold a 5-1 record against the Swans and have won the past three matches between the sides.
The last – and only – time Brisbane and Sydney have met in a final was the preliminary final of 2003 at Stadium Australia.
The Lions also scored a 44-point win that night and went on to complete their premiership three-peat with a 50-point thumping of Collingwood at the MCG the following week.
CASUALTY LIST
Oscar McInerney (shoulder) TBC
Keidean Coleman (knee) season
Tom Doedee (knee) season
Darcy Gardiner (knee) season
Lincoln McCarthy (knee) season
LAST TIME: R19, Brisbane Lions 11.13 (79) d Sydney 11.11 (77), Gabba
TAB ODDS
Sydney $1.75
Brisbane Lions $2.10
CHRIS CAVANAGH SAYS: Brisbane Lions by 4 points
Momentum is a powerful thing and the Lions have a serious head of steam this September. They’ve shown real fight the past two weeks to score come-from-behind wins which will provide plenty of confidence. Brisbane also has the weapons to match the Swans and beat them the last time these sides met in July.
Norm Smith: Hugh McCluggage (Brisbane Lions)
Originally published as AFL Grand Final 2024: An early look at where the Sydney v Brisbane Lions premiership decider will be won
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