AFL Gather Round Adelaide v Melbourne: All the analysis and fallout as the Crows lose their fourth in a row

Only one team in the AFL era has been able to turn an 0-4 start around and play finals meaning history is against the winless Crows to deliver on their post-season promise.

History suggests you can just about draw a line through Adelaide’s finals chances.

Of the 162 teams to start a VFL/AFL season 0-4 before this year, only five have made the major round.

And just one of those – Sydney in 2017, which was 0-6 – had been since 1975.

Adelaide will not stop believing it can recover to make the top eight and fair enough – it cannot drop its bundle and knows its best is very good.

The Crows’ gritty last quarter proved they could challenge the top sides.

But there is a big difference between those Swans and Adelaide right now.

Sydney was coming off a grand final the previous season.

The Crows have a young side with too many players out of form who butcher the ball.

Adelaide captain Jordan Dawson after missing a shot on goal. Picture: Phil Hillyard.

Matthew Nicks’s side is highly unlikely to go on a big winning streak like the Swans did to qualify, particularly given their road woes.

Adelaide now requires a minor miracle to reach September but with Carlton at Marvel Stadium next week, a 0-5 opening is a significant chance.

Four games into their campaign, the highest scoring team of 2023 is still struggling to score.

After booting eight, 11 and four majors in their opening three games, they managed just eight on Thursday night.

Adelaide finished with more inside 50s (54-48) but its midfield-forward connection was again inefficient going in (46.3 per cent to Melbourne’s 58.3 per cent).

The Crows’ inability to make the most of their early ascendancy proved a key part of the problem.

Adelaide could and perhaps should have been three or four goals ahead at quarter-time.

They dominated inside 50s (19-8), clearances (16-9) and contested possessions (39-34) in the opening term, but their lead on the scoreboard was a mere five points.

The Crows were not further ahead because they struggled to bring the footy to ground, take marks in attack or convert.

They booted 2.5 – also Adelaide’s quarter-time score last week against Fremantle – and one out of the full.

Not unlike Geelong’s Tom Stewart and Fremantle’s Luke Ryan over the past two weeks, Melbourne key defender Steven May dominated aerially early, taking three intercept marks in the opening term.

Adelaide again kicked too many long, high balls, lacked creativity and not enough of its players lowered their eyes.

The Crows took just three marks inside 50 from 29 entries to halftime.

And they butchered the ball.

Matthew Nicks’ side has its worst possible start to 2024 with four losses in a row. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images.

The Demons scored 41 points from turnovers to three-quarter time, while Adelaide registered just six.

Crows coach Matthew Nicks told Fox Footy pre-game that his side had embraced the fact it was playing on the big stage.

“We’ve got our work cut out for us but I’m sure our boys will be ready,” Nicks said.

Adelaide was ready, it just again was exposed for not having enough polish.

It took until the game was hanging in the balance for the Crows to look anything like the side that came within a whisker of making the major round last year.

Their seven-year finals drought looks set to stretch on unless something remarkable happens from here.

CROWS 2.5 3.8 6.9 8.15 (63)

DEMONS 2.0 6.7 10.13 10.18 (78)

JASON PHELAN’S BEST

CROWS: Laird, Crouch, Dawson, Smith, Soligo, Keane. DEMONS: Petracca, Gawn, Viney, May, McVee, Sparrow.

GOALS

CROWS: Fogarty 2, Walker, Rankine, Laird, Dawson, Keays. DEMONS: Fritsch 3, van Rooyen 2, Pickett 2, Petty, Petracca, Chandler.

INJURIES CROWS: Nil. DEMONS: Nil.

UMPIRES Meredith, Williamson, Fleer, Rodger.

CROWD 48,020 at ADELAIDE OVAL

PLAYER OF THE YEAR

JASON PHELAN’S VOTES

3 Petracca (Mel)

2 Gawn (Mel)

1 Laird (Adel)

Originally published as AFL Gather Round Adelaide v Melbourne: All the analysis and fallout as the Crows lose their fourth in a row