AFL finals 2024: The key factors that will decide the qualifying and elimination finals
Who’s racing the clock, who needs to lift and what weaknesses could be exposed in week one of AFL finals? ED BOURKE runs the rule over each match in our ultimate finals guide.
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Port Adelaide has a golden opportunity for a home preliminary final, Sydney faces the daunting task of winning a third Sydney Derby in one season, and the Western Bulldogs and Hawthorn will need to adjust to unfamiliar conditions. Read the preview of all four week one AFL finals.
PORT ADELAIDE v GEELONG
SECOND QUALIFYING FINAL, ADELAIDE OVAL, THURSDAY 7.40PM
SAV AND CHARLIE
They were both goalless in the Showdown win, and Esava Ratugolea hasn’t hit the scoreboard for three weeks, but the former Cat and Charlie Dixon loom as crucial pieces in the Power’s tilt at a second flag.
The sheer strength of the duo draws the big defenders away from the Power’s other threats, and is helping Mitch Georgiades (17 goals in his last five games) emerge as a genuine force.
TIME TO TAKE NEXT STEP
Jason Horne-Francis had a stinker in his first final last year,but his consistently high impact at the end of tight games this season suggests he’ll rise to the occasion against the Cats.
The third-year midfielder was unlucky not to pip teammate Zak Butters for an All-Australian spot, and will have a point to prove in an aesthetically pleasing socks-up battle against Patrick Dangerfield.
WEIGHT OF EXPECTATIONS
Port Adelaide hasn’t been this well placed entering a finals series since 2021 when it also met Geelong in a home qualifying final.
It is difficult to see supporters accepting anything less than a grand final appearance in their sixth finals appearance since 2013.
The Power and coach Ken Hinkley will need to handle that pressure, as well as quickly finding a solution to replace their top rebounding defenders in Dan Houston and Kane Farrell.
NEALE OR TOMAHAWK?
Shannon Neale’s consistency has almost shut the door on a fairytale farewell for retiring great Tom Hawkins, but the 22-year-old will be playing on edge this whole finals series.
Neale has kicked goals in all of his 13 games this season but hasn’t been able to grab hold of a game and completely rule out the possibility of a Hawkins recall.
Hawkins had his own breakout finals series in 2011, and the 203cm West Australian will be one to watch this September.
DANGER MUST FIRE
The Cats are 11-3 with Patrick Dangerfield this season and 4-5 without, and in the former losses, it was during quiet patches for the skipper that the opposition got on top.
With Tom Stewart in the middle and Tanner Bruhn and Shaun Mannagh growing in confidence, the 34-year-old doesn’t need to put the Cats on his back, but he does need to maintain a consistent physical presence at stoppages to stop the likes of Butters and Horne-Francis seizing control.
RUCK REVERSAL
First it looked like it would be Toby Conway, and then after a strong month, Sam De Koning.
Now it seems De Koning will return from injury via defence, and the Cats will be back where they started with Rhys Stanley as No. 1 ruck.
Stanley, 33, is in good nick and has hit the scoreboard with four goals in his last three games, with the main point of contention for Chris Scott in who he throws in as the back-up out of De Koning and Mark Blicavs.
CASUALTY LIST
POWER
D Houston (suspension) – season
K Farrell (hamstring) – season
CATS
T Hawkins (foot) – test
C Guthrie (achilles) – test
T Stewart (hamstring) – test
LAST TIME
Round 9: Geelong 14.11 (95) lost to Port Adelaide 15.11 (101), GMHBA Stadium
VERDICT
Port Adelaide’s midfield is stacked with firepower that the Cats will struggle to match, but a defence missing Houston and Farrell needs some rebalancing. Power by 14.
WESTERN BULLDOGS v HAWTHORN
SECOND ELIMINATION FINAL, MCG, FRIDAY 7.40PM
LONG LEVERS
With unexpected success, Hawthorn has relied this season on Sam Frost, Jack Scrimshaw and Josh Weddle to lock down on opposition tall forwards.
None of this trio nor captain James Sicily has the reach to match it with Sam Darcy if the father-son Bulldog can get off the chain on Friday night.
It looks like his inaccuracy against the Crows was a one-off, with 9.1 in his past two games leaving him poised for a huge second finals game.
OLD DOGS, HIGH STAKES
Luke Beveridge has turned back to premiership Dogs Jack Macrae and Caleb Daniel in the last month, and the pair both had a significant influence in the round 24 win over GWS.
They should keep their spots, but will it leave the Bulldogs with enough leg speed on the wider expanses of the MCG?
Caleb Poulter and Oskar Baker are both available as specialist wingmen, but leaving out finals experience would be a brash selection move even for Luke Beveridge.
‘HOME’ GAME
The Bulldogs’ home final will be only their third trot on the MCG this season, presenting a difficult task when Hawthorn has looked indestructible at the venue since its 1-6 start.
But it’s also the Dogs’ first MCG final since the 2016 decider, and Tom Liberatore said the happy memories and a bumper crowd of more than 90,000 would spur on his side.
NIGHT TERRORS
Hawthorn moved its Friday training session to under the lights at Punt Road this week because Sam Mitchell’s men have not played in a night game since round 15, 2022.
In Grand Final-like weather, the Hawks ran Carlton off their legs with a fast, uncontested brand of football three weeks ago, but will they be able to do the same to the Dogs in a very different environment?
IMPORTANT AS EVER
Jack Gunston’s cards looked marked when he was subbed out against Geelong in round 17 with two disposals to his name.
Skip ahead two months and he is the Hawks’ most in-form forward, tasked with going to the opposition’s main interceptor and still hitting the scoreboard.
The triple premiership forward has a big role to play against Rory Lobb or Liam Jones, and with Luke Breust likely to again don the sub vest, his finals experience will be vital for a young side.
NASH’S BIG JOB
Conor Nash is expected to brush off a corked quad in time to face the Bulldogs,but there’ll be no brushing off Tom Liberatore and Marcus Bontempelli at the source on Friday.
The Irishman in Hawthorn’s top first-possession player, and has a great track record against the Bulldogs.
Whether or not Will Day is out there, the Hawks will still need the 198cm strongman to fire in the middle.
CASUALTY LIST
BULLDOGS
A Treloar (calf) – test
L Vandermeer (hamstring) – test
HAWKS
W Day (SC joint) – test
C Nash (quad) – test
LAST TIME
Round 8: Western Bulldogs 14.7 (91) lost to Hawthorn 14.14 (98), Marvel Stadium
VERDICT
Neither side deserves to bow out in a week one finals exit after playing arguably the best football of the past two months.
The way the Hawks preyed on Carlton on an afternoon which felt like a final suggests they won’t be fazed by the dual return to September and Friday night lights. Hawks by 10.
SYDNEY v GWS GIANTS
FIRST QUALIFYING FINAL, SCG, SATURDAY 3.20PM
DO THE GUNS ALL FIT?
Isaac Heeney, Chad Warner, Luke Parker and captain Callum Mills have only played two games together this season; one was the Port drubbing; the other the stirring win over Collingwood.
Throw a returning Tom Papley and Justin McInerney back into the side and a headache could emerge with Mills – does the skipper have the legs to go with the Giants’ speedy half-forwards, or does he need to be squeezed back into the midfield where he struggled early in his return from injury?
GRUNDY MUST LIFT
Brodie Grundy went into July with one arm inside a fairytale All-Australian blazer after a blistering patch of form, but his influence waned as the Swans entered their six-week slump.
The star ruckman got involved in more scoring chains against Adelaide and will challenge Kieren Briggs if he can get back to his high-possession play from the middle of the season.
SLEEPY SWANS
This time last year, it was their final quarters. In 2024, it’s a persistent opening-quarter problem which has plagued the Swans and like the Port Adelaide loss, will have them punished badly if it rears its head against a finals-quality opponent.
Heeney, Warner and Errol Gulden have worked their way into almost every game, but firing from the first bounce is how the Swans can reopen the early-season gap on their rivals.
PACE AND PASSION
Tipsters who backed GWS over the Bulldogs last week groaned when they heard Brent Daniels (back) and Toby Bedford (calf) had been withdrawn before the game.
Bedford’s tagging success has meant coach Adam Kingsley can use the speedy duo in the same centre-bounce combination, changing what would otherwise be a one-paced midfield.
The Giants need both fit and firing to keep Sydney’s on-ballers on their toes.
CAPTAIN IS DUE
Is the best small forward in the game entering this finals series under the radar?
Toby Greene has kicked 41 goals this season, but he would’ve been stinging this week after missing the squad for the All-Australian side he captained last year.
Coleman medallist Jesse Hogan’s form has perhaps reduced Greene’s supply ahead of the ball, but the 30-year-old will be itching to take hold of another final and will pose Swans defender Harry Cunningham a tough challenge.
RISKY RUCKING
Kieren Briggs’ shoulder is hanging on by a thread. The hulking ruckman is getting through games, but in recent weeks has been accompanied in the side by Lachie Keeffe in case he goes down.
The Giants will be sweating on forward-ruck Jake Riccardi’s fitness, as his prowess in attack gives their side a better balance than with Keeffe, who went goalless in last year’s finals series and in his three games to finish this season.
CASUALTY LIST
SWANS
J McInerney (knee) – test
T Papley (ankle) – test
GIANTS
T Bedford (calf) – test
J Riccardi (finger) – test
LAST TIME
Round 15: GWS Giants 11.9 (75) lost to Sydney 15.12 (102), Engie Stadium
VERDICT
This is the third Sydney Derby this season and there’s a very good chance it won’t be the last. GWS enters September with a clearer picture of its best mix than the Swans. Giants by 5.
BRISBANE v CARLTON
FIRST ELIMINATION FINAL, GABBA, SATURDAY 7.30PM
ACCURACY CONCERNS
No forward has been safe from Brisbane’s infectious goalkicking woes, and the Lions are acutely aware that inaccuracy has hurt them in previous finals campaigns.
Whether it’s their historic offenders in Joe Daniher (50.44) and Eric Hipwood (30.20), or smalls Charlie Cameron (37.26) and Kai Lohmann (27.25), they must take their easy chances to set the tone for their finals campaign.
CAM’S BIG CHANCE
The Blues clash is a huge opportunity for former No. 1 pick Cam Rayner to show he can step up in finals football.
He seized control of an MCG clash against Melbourne in round 5; he did the same at the Gabba in the stirring win over Sydney three months later.
The 24-year-old has the flair to expose Carlton’s midfield and can silence those who criticised
his selection in the All-Australian squad.
POINT TO PROVE
Brisbane co-captain Harris Andrews joined Rayner in the AA squad but was remarkably left out of the team for the likes of finals rival Jacob Weitering and Fremantle defensive general Luke Ryan.
The Lions should regain big defender Jack Payne to play alongside him, but Andrews will still have a job on either Charlie Curnow or Harry McKay to flex his defensive muscles and inspire his team into a semi-final.
HOW MANY CHANGES?
Carlton coach Michael Voss will have a raft of senior Blues sticking up their hands to play, but how many returning players can be expected to be near their best?
Curnow, McKay and McGovern should all return to strengthen Carlton’s spine – the biggest calls loom over whether to rush Tom De Koning back in for Marc Pittonet in the ruck, and if Sam Docherty will run out on the Gabba where he busted his ACL in opening round.
YOUNG BLOOD
After waiting all season for a chance, 19-year-olds Ashton Moir and Jaxon Binns are set to play their third and fourth games respectively in a final.
Binns’ speed has been an important addition to Carlton’s on-ball brigade in the last fortnight, while Moir has had an instant impact in both games he was used as the sub.
The pair will bring important youthful energy to the Blues’ finals campaign and should both at least make the final 23 for the Lions clash.
RETURN TO SCENE
They divide opinion among other fans, but Carlton’s Queensland-based “Blues Brothers” brigade had an undeniable impact in last year’s preliminary final and the Blues’ opening round revenge act in March.
They were gradually silenced as the Lions overpowered Carlton in that prelim, but the heavy support for the Blues takes away some of the power from what was an absolute fortress in 2023.
CASUALTY LIST
LIONS
L McCarthy (knee) – season
K Coleman (knee) – season
BLUES
S Docherty (knee) – test
T De Koning (foot) – test
A Cerra (hamstring) – TBC
LAST TIME
Opening Round: Brisbane 12.13 (85) lost to Carlton 13.8 (86), Gabba
VERDICT
Even if the Blues are able to field healthy stars, their ball movement has been stagnant for weeks and uncertainty swirls over their best defensive mix. Lions by 26.
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Originally published as AFL finals 2024: The key factors that will decide the qualifying and elimination finals
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