AFL 2015: Sam Edmund breaks down each final and each teams strengths, weaknesses
FIELD MARSHAL: THEY are the deal-breakers, the non-negotiables that must be met if a side is to advance. Sam Edmund breaks down each final.
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THEY are the deal-breakers, the non-negotiables that must be met if a side is to advance in this year’s finals series.
The remaining eight contenders have clearly identifiable strengths and weaknesses. Putting pure talent aside, the reason they’ve made it this far is because they’ve enhanced the former and moved hell and earth to cover over the latter.
The Herald Sun has obtained a season’s worth of data on this year’s finalists. After 22 matches, they paint a clear picture of what each has to do to win the game’s that count most.
At SYDNEY the magic number is 80. History says if the Swans can score at least 80 points they’ll beat Fremantle. John Longmire’s men have kicked this score 13 times in 2015 for 13 wins.
The Swans have won five of their last six matches partly because they’ve hit the scoreboard, scoring 100 points in four of those victories via a swarm of different goalkickers. In their only loss in this period — to Geelong in Round 19 — they could manage only 63.
Incidentally, Sydney has been held to 80 points or less in nine matches this year and yep, it’s lost six of them.
Scoring isn’t exactly the backbone of FREMANTLE’S rise to the minor premiership. In fact, the Dockers rank 11th for points-scored.
But what the hard-nosed Dockers have done is win the contested ball count by 9.7 per game — second-best in the comp. Winning this stat is like gold to Ross Lyon because of his side’s vulnerabilities when it comes to moving the ball.
Freo have only generated an inside 50m from only 26 per cent of chains starting behind centre — ranked 15th. It’s been effective, but not pretty.
Ball-ups and boundary throw-ins are where WEST COAST have become the most dangerous side in the game. With Nic Naitanui looming as September’s most destructive force, the Eagles have generated 42 points per game from stoppages — the most in the league.
But critically, in four of West Coast’s five losses, they have lost the clearance count by more than eight. Amid all the talk about West Coast’s revolutionary defensive web, it’s all about the dead-ball for the Eagles.
Their opponent HAWTHORN is surprisingly poor at contested ball — ranking eighth in differential — and ground ball gets differential where they rank second-last.
But it’s the Hawks’ ability to control the ball on the outside that sets them apart from the rest. The reigning premier wins the uncontested possession count by an average of 33 a game.
In their recent loss to the Power, Hawthorn lost the uncontested possession count by 30. Against Essendon in Round 2 it was by 53. Unlike Freo, their fortune rests on maximising their advantage on the outside.
Not many sides play like RICHMOND. While the Bulldogs have won rave reviews for their offensive blitz, the Tigers ditched the kamikaze attacking philosophy after it threatened to derail their season. Replacing it was a slow and steady approach.
The go-slow has them generating 37 points per game from behind centre this season — the third-most of any side. But it’s no secret, with rivals clamping down on this in the Tigers’ seven losses.
In their 15 wins they generate 42.6 points from behind centre. In losses it falls to 25.9.
NORTH MELBOURNE’S defence has been a barometer this year. On the surface the Roos are nothing flash, ranking 12th, but it’s the difference in their wins and losses that’s stark.
North has allowed less 90 points in 12 matches, winning all 12. In the 10 times the opposition scores more than that the Roos have won only once.
The WESTERN BULLDOGS and ADELAIDE are made for each other. The success of both hinges on their ability to get in the face of rivals and force turnovers in the their forward half.
The Dogs rank fifth for forcing forward half turnovers and third for scoring from these turnovers. The Crows? They rank third for creating forward half turnovers and fourth in scoring from this source.
To tweak a line from Denis Pagan, it will be like dancing with your sister.
Originally published as AFL 2015: Sam Edmund breaks down each final and each teams strengths, weaknesses
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