What sexual assault verdict means for Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign

Donald Trump has come out swinging in an outrageous TV appearance that was shocking for one huge reason, writes Tom Minear.

For years, Donald Trump has been known as Teflon Don, because nothing sticks to him.

It’s a catchy nickname, certainly, but recent events suggest it’s not quite accurate. The thing about the former president is not that nothing sticks to him – it’s that he absorbs everything.

The verdict of a Manhattan jury on Wednesday, that Trump was liable for sexually abusing E. Jean Carroll in the 1990s, would mark the end of the road for any ordinary politician.

And yet the trial itself offered a stark reminder of how those rules have not applied to Trump since he first ran for the White House in 2016, when leaked audio of him bragging about grabbing women by their genitals seemed set to doom his campaign until, of course, it didn’t.

Trump was asked about the Access Hollywood tape in his deposition, which was replayed in the New York courtroom last week. Instead of expressing contrition, he doubled down.

Donald Trump after he was recorded bragging about sexually assaulting women on the set of Access Hollywood in 2005. Picture: Supplied

“Well, historically, that’s true with stars,” he said.

“True with stars that they can grab women by the pussy?” Carroll’s lawyer asked incredulously.

“Well, that’s what – if you look over the last million years, I guess that’s been largely true,” Trump replied.

That bombastic performance – in which Trump also called Carroll “a wack job” and denied raping her because she was not his “type” – was all the jury saw of him because he decided not to give evidence and instead travelled to Scotland to open a new golf course.

Donald Trump in Scotland during the New York civil trial. Picture: Robert Perry (Getty Images)

Having tried to avoid the long arm of the law for decades, Trump will not like the jury’s decision. (He was quick to post on his social media site that it was “A DISGRACE” and “A CONTINUATION OF THE GREATEST WITCH HUNT OF ALL TIME!”.)

Nevertheless, the sad but simple fact is that it is unlikely to change the minds of any Americans thinking about whether to support his bid to win back the presidency next year.

Consider this. A Washington Post-ABC News poll released last week found 56 per cent of voters thought Trump should face criminal charges for his efforts to overturn his 2020 election defeat, while 54 per cent thought he should be charged over inciting the Capitol riot.

When those same voters were asked who they would vote for in a 2024 contest between Trump and Joe Biden, 49 per cent backed Trump and just 42 per cent picked Biden.

Indeed, the Republican frontrunner’s poll numbers have only improved since he became the first president to be hit with criminal charges last month over hush money paid to a porn star who claimed to have slept with him.

In a wild appearance on CNN on Thursday, Trump claimed his numbers bounced again in the wake of the Carroll verdict. And instead of being embarrassed by his boasts of sexually assaulting women, he continued to maintain that “when you’re a star … women let you”.

“I can’t take it back because it happens to be true,” Trump said. The crowd of Republican primary voters – including plenty of women – cheered and clapped.

That moment said it all.

Rather than bouncing off him, Trump’s misdeeds are increasingly being baked into his character – and his supporters are still happy to eat it up.

Originally published as What sexual assault verdict means for Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign