US Election Polls: ‘Closer than a coin flip’: Shock last minute poll

As voting closes in some east coast states, exit polls are revealing widespread dissatisfaction with life in America – but also some potentially serious results for Donald Trump’s campaign.

Exit polls have revealed deep and widespread dissatisfaction with life in America, with many voters telling pollsters they’re worse off than they were four years ago and they think the country is going in the wrong direction.

The NBC News Exit Poll showed a country profoundly unhappy with itself, with 43 per cent of voters saying they were dissatisfied with the way things were going and a further 29 per cent saying they were angry.

Just 19 per cent of respondents said they were satisfied with the country’s direction and only 7 per cent reported feeling enthusiastic.

Just one in four respondents to the NBC News Exit Poll said they were better off than they were in 2020, while 45 per cent said they were worse off – the highest number in 20 years.

Former US President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally at Madison Square Garden on October 27, in New York City. Picture: Michael M. Santiago / Getty Images

The NBC poll showed the number of white voters who had a favourable opinion of Donald Trump has dropped substantially since 2020, but the former president had gone up in the estimation of black and Latino/a voters.

Forty-nine per cent of white voters said they had a favourable opinion of Trump (down from 57 per cent last election), compared to 42 per cent of Latino/a voters (up from 38 per cent), and 14 per cent of black voters (up from 10 per cent).

There were similarly grim results in the CNN Exit Poll, with one third of respondents saying the economy was in good condition, and another third saying it’s in poor shape.

CNN also found the overwhelming majority (around 80 per cent) had made up their mind who they were voting for before September, and fewer than 10 per cent made up their minds in the past week.

Regarding Kamala Harris, 46 per cent of respondents to the CNN poll said they had a positive view of her, but not of Donald Trump, while 42 per cent said the reverse: that they had a positive view of the former President, but not the current Vice President.

And in the Fox News Exit Poll, nearly two in thee respondents said economic conditions were “Not so good” or “Poor”. Just 13 per cent said they felt they were getting ahead.

“CLOSER THAN A COIN FLIP: POLLING GURU’S PREDICTION

Veteran pollster Nate Silver has described the race for the White House as “literally closer than a coin flip,” with Kamala Harris’s chance of winning at 50.015 per cent.

The renowned US election statistician said that when you toss a coin, heads comes up 50.5 per cent of the time, but the presidential race was actually tighter than that.

“This is my fifth presidential election — and my ninth general election overall, counting midterms — and there has never been anything like this,” Mr Silver wrote in an online post presenting his findings, which he described as “quite ridiculous”.

Mr Silver ran 80,000 different voting simulations and said that Democratic nominee Kamala Harris won the Electoral College in 40,012 of them – exactly 50.015 per cent.

American polling guru Nate Silver. Picture: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images

In the models, Donald Trump took out the electoral college on 39,718 occasions, while in another 270 outcomes, the result was tied, with both candidates winning 269 electoral college votes.

In earlier models, the polling guru – who shot to prominence after correctly picking the outcome of the 2008 presidential election – said Donald Trump had a 51.5 per cent chance of winning and Kamala Harris had a 48.1 per cent chance.

EARLIER PREDICTION OF TRUMP LANDSLIDE

Earlier this week, a Republican-leaning pollster tipped that Trump was on track for a landslide victory that would mirror Ronald Reagan’s historic win in 1980.

The prediction defied the results of several other major polls, which have the former president essentially locked in a statistical tie with Kamala Harris ahead of election day.

But Rasmussen’s head pollster Mark Mitchell argued the polls suggested “a strong Trump win” in the battleground states and the national popular vote, marking “a major political realignment”.

His survey had Mr Trump on 49 per cent nationally, ahead of the Vice President on 46 per cent.

Mr Silver identified Rasmussen as an “intrinsically partisan” pollster that favoured the Republican Party.

The latest New York Times poll of the seven key swing states had Ms Harris nudging in front in North Carolina and Georgia, two must-win states for her Republican opponent.

But Mr Trump was tied with Ms Harris in Pennsylvania and Michigan, two states that are part of the so-called Democratic “blue wall”.

“It’s all in line with a race that’s really and truly close to 50/50,” Mr Silver said.

The race was also jolted by the respected Des Moines Register poll finding Ms Harris held a lead of 47 per cent to 44 per cent in Iowa – a state Mr Trump won easily in 2016 and 2020.

Among independent female voters, she was up by a massive 28-point margin, a boost for her chances among women in the key Midwest states of Michigan and Wisconsin.

Mr Trump’s pollster Tony Fabrizio dismissed it as a “clear outlier”, while the former president himself said it was a “fake poll”.

Cook Political Report publisher Amy Walter said the final polls presented a “‘choose your own adventure’ ending to an unprecedented election”.

More than 70 million Americans have already cast their ballots. Among those surveyed by The New York Times who had voted, Ms Harris held an eight-point advantage.

The New York Post’s final national poll had the candidates tied on 49 per cent.

WHAT DO THE LATEST NATIONAL POLLS SHOW?

According to the Real Clear Politics average of national polls, Mr Trump has the support of 48.5 per cent of voters, compared to 48.3 per cent backing Ms Harris.

Donald Trump campaigns in North Carolina. Picture: Win McNamee (AFP)

The final NBC News poll of the campaign shows both candidates are locked on 49 per cent, with just 2 per cent of registered voters remaining undecided ahead of the election.

In the last ABC News/Ipsos poll, Ms Harris is ahead 49 per cent to 46 per cent. But six out of 10 voters are dissatisfied with their choice of candidates and 74 per cent believe the US is heading in the wrong direction – the highest level before an election since 2008.

WHAT ABOUT POLLING IN THE BATTLEGROUND STATES?

America’s Electoral College system means the next president will be decided by voters in seven battleground states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina.

Bear in mind that in 2016, Hillary Clinton beat Mr Trump in the overall popular vote by almost three million, but he convincingly won the Electoral College by triumphing in swing states.

According to the Real Clear Politics average, the former president currently leads Ms Harris in five out of seven battlegrounds, although each state is essentially statistically tied.

Ms Harris has an advantage of 0.3 percentage points in Wisconsin and 0.6 percentage points in Michigan, while Mr Trump is up by 0.3 percentage points in Pennsylvania. Should the Vice President win those three states, she should win the election.

Kamala Harris prepares to fly from Georgia to Pennsylvania. Picture: Megan Warner (Getty Images via AFP)

WHAT IF THE POLLS ARE WRONG?

In 2016, while the national polls were remarkably accurate, they overlooked Mr Trump’s swing state strength that handed him a stunning victory. Four years ago, the national polls over-estimated Mr Biden’s advantage, and he only squeaked home in key battlegrounds.

Should the polls miss in the same way as 2020 this time around, Mr Trump would easily sweep the seven states up for grabs, ensuring a dominant victory.

But if the polls are wrong in the same way they were during the 2022 congressional midterm elections – when the Democrats surprisingly averted a Republican wipe-out – then Ms Harris would win.

Originally published as US Election Polls: ‘Closer than a coin flip’: Shock last minute poll