Tom Minear: Joe Biden’s midterm struggles should remind Anthony Albanese to focus on the economy

Joe Biden’s Democrats are staring at defeat because they haven’t focused on the economy. That’s a lesson for Anthony Albanese, argues Tom Minear.

The economic car crash that was the British mini-budget unveiled by Liz Truss came at just the right time for Anthony Albanese and his ministers.

As they were putting the final touches on their first budget, Truss’s plan – featuring billions of dollars of unfunded tax cuts – offered a real-time example of the consequences of ramping up government spending while the central bank tried to dampen demand and rein in inflation.

Assistant Treasurer Stephen Jones, unprompted in an interview, said Labor did not want to “repeat the mistakes that have had such a devastating impact in the United Kingdom”. The Prime Minister reassured Australians that unlike in Britain, “the adults are in charge”.

It was a rather undiplomatic way to treat the closest of allies, but nevertheless, the Albanese government sensibly avoided similarly profligate measures in its own budget.

If the Truss debacle was a lesson for Labor in economic management, then the performance of Joe Biden and the Democrats in the US midterm elections should serve as an equally important lesson in political management.

Liz Truss, Britain’s shortest-serving prime minister. Picture: Daniel Leal (AFP)

Barring a last-minute miracle, the President is on Wednesday expected to lose control of Congress, with the polls suggesting Republicans will at least claim a majority in the House of Representatives, if not the Senate as well.

Some Democrats cannot seem to comprehend how they could be in this position. On the two issues they have prioritised – the threat to democracy posed by Donald Trump’s election-denying Republicans, and abortion rights after the Supreme Court overturned the Roe v. Wade decision – most middle-of-the-road voters are on their side.

Hillary Clinton recently complained Americans, or at least those not voting for the Democrats, did not “really understand” what was at stake. Perhaps she had forgotten the advice offered by James Carville, an adviser to her husband Bill when he was trying to claim the White House from President George H. W. Bush amid a recession.

“It’s the economy, stupid,” Carville famously declared.

Three decades later, with inflation skyrocketing and the US on the brink of another economic downturn, those four words should again have guided the Democratic campaign.

Of course, it is easier to capitalise on the hip-pocket fears of voters as the opposition, not the incumbent attracting the blame. But that is the political reality that has confronted Biden – as it will for Albanese – and he has fallen short in selling his economic response.

California Governor Gavin Newsom, a contender for the Democratic nomination if Biden does not run in 2024, has been vocal about this during the campaign. While he praised the President’s policy agenda as a “masterclass”, he said the Democrats had been “crushed on narrative” by Republicans and needed to “stop being on the damn defence”.

For instance, polls show cutting the cost of prescription drugs is overwhelmingly popular, but that most voters are not aware Biden delivered it through his $1.1 trillion Inflation Reduction Act. Albanese took a similar promise to the election and implemented it in last month’s budget, although it too has often seemed lost in the noise of Labor’s other priorities.

Joe Biden shakes hands with Anthony Albanese earlier this year. Picture: Saul Loeb (AFP)

Biden has also been criticised for claiming credit for a big increase in welfare payments that was in fact automatically tied to the soaring cost of living. Albanese and his ministers did the same in September.

Newsom’s critique was recently bolstered by Barack Obama, who clearly remains the best Democratic communicator six years after leaving office. The former president warned his party was too often focused on social issues and came across as a “buzzkill”.

“People just want to not feel as if they are walking on eggshells,” he said.

Before and since the election, Albanese has been appropriately cautious in avoiding culture wars many on his side of politics would love to fight. That said, he will have to expend an enormous amount of political capital for his planned referendum on a First Nations Voice to Parliament to succeed.

Joe Biden campaigns with Barack Obama. Picture: Mark Makela (Getty Images/AFP)

This is not a criticism of the merits of the Voice. The point is that the Prime Minister has to make the case for it when struggling families disconnected from the economic intricacies of managing inflation are wondering why he is not delivering the cost-of-living relief they need.

In Albanese’s favour is the fact that, unlike Biden, his personal approval ratings remain strong. He is a quick learner and a good judge of the public mood.

(Indeed, he has been sensitive to criticism of his overseas trips since the election, which perhaps influenced his decision to skip this week’s UN climate change summit in Egypt. But given climate change was so crucial to his victory, that was a hypocritical overcorrection.)

Unlike Biden, however, Albanese is facing an opposition not tainted by damaging election conspiracies and outdated views on abortion.

Peter Dutton will focus solely on the economy. The Prime Minister better be ready.

Originally published as Tom Minear: Joe Biden’s midterm struggles should remind Anthony Albanese to focus on the economy