‘Sizeable electoral win’: New US poll shocks
The race for the White House was supposed to be neck and neck but a new poll has been interpreted as indicating a “sizeable” win for one candidate.
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A major new US poll has been published – and by rights it should be music to Kamala Harris’ ears.
It shows the Democratic nominee for president pulling ahead of Mr Trump in a head to head race.
It appears to be yet another sign that Ms Harris’ late entry into the fray has bolstered the Democratic Party’s chances of holding onto the White House.
But dig into the detail and the poll is far more concerning. Indeed, it could cause downright panic in the Democratic Party.
Despite Ms Harris’ lead, the poll could actually point to a “sizeable electoral win” for her opponent Donald Trump, one analyst has said.
There’s little doubt Joe Biden’s withdrawal for the presidential race in July and Ms Harris ascendance as the nominee has transformed the race.
In July, after the debate that destroyed Mr Biden’s re-election chances, Mr Trump was polling 2-3 points ahead of the US President as fears rose of his rival’s fitness for office.
That advantage has been stripped away by Ms Harris.
The Democratic National Convention (DNC), held two weeks ago in Chicago, was abuzz with excitement from the party faithful who believed the race was now winnable.
On Friday, US time, a new post-DNC Wall Street Journal poll of 1500 voters was published. And it seemed to back this all up.
For the first time in The Wall Street Journal’s polling since Ms Harris became the nominee, she is now leading Mr Trump.
The Democratic candidate is on 48 per cent of the national vote and the Republican 47 per cent.
If you include independent candidates, Ms Harris is on 47 per cent and Mr Trump lags on 45 per cent.
Just before Mr Biden dropped out, the WSJ had him on 42 per cent in a head-to-head match up to Mr Trump’s 48 per cent.
While other polls have put Ms Harris in the lead in recent weeks, this is the first time the WSJ has a Democrat winning the national vote since April 2023.
“She has emerged successfully as a candidate,” said Michael Bocian, a Democratic pollster who worked on the research for the WSJ.
“Voters are assessing her job approval as Biden’s vice president, but they are assessing her as her own candidate for president.”
All is not rosy for Kamala Harris
Yet Democrat HQ are likely to be troubled.
Bluntly, if Ms Harris is to win she needs to be further ahead of Mr Trump in the polls than one or two measly points.
A gap of anything less than 2.5 basis points is within the margin of error. It could go either way.
But even if the poll is accurate, and Ms Harris has a slim national lead, it still may not be enough.
Voting history in the US show that Democrats can lose the presidential election if they win the national overall vote only by a small margin.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump by 2.1 per cent more votes nationally – and still failed to make it to the White House due to the vagaries of the Electoral College.
That’s because Democrats pile up votes in deep blue states such as California, Massachusetts, Illinois and New York. But the Republicans votes are more spread out across the US.
The election is won in the swing states. So the Democrats can lead nationally by a small amount, but still lose if they fail to translate that national lead into votes in those crucial states.
It’s estimated the Democrats need a lead of at least three points nationally over the Republicans to be confident of victory.
‘Sizeable win’ for Donald Trump
“Kamala Harris has managed to tie Donald Trump nationally — and a tie nationally points to a sizeable electoral win for Trump,” said Republican David Lee who worked on the WSJ poll with Mr Bocian.
A national poll released on Thursday from Quinnipiac University may also keep the Democrats up at night.
It has Mr Harris on 49 per cent and Mr Trump on 47 per cent. Head to head with no other minor candidates, there is just one point in it.
“Conventions done, debates in the planning, rhetoric getting rougher, there’s a slight numerical difference, but it is essentially a tie as the presidential race roars toward November 5th,” said Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Malloy.
A real concern for the Harris campaign is these polls have come in the week after the polished DNC, where the Democrats hogged US TV screens as Oprah, the Obamas, the Clintons and Mr Biden himself queued up to heap praise on Ms Harris.
They will be fretting that this might be the high water mark for Ms Harris’ popularity.
Poll of polls
To be sure, these are two polls out of many.
And that The Wall Street Journal poll didn’t have Ms Harris already with a slim lead made it an outlier.
The poll of polls, by website FiveThirtyEight, has Ms Harris on 47.2 per cent to Mr Trump’s 43.7 per cent, a more than 3 point gap.
Real Clear Polling, which also has a poll of polls, has a 1.8 per cent lead for Ms Harris.
Ms Harris will be more reassured by a poll that came out on Thursday from Reuters/Ipsos.
It had Ms Harris on 45 per cent to 41 per cent to Mr Trump. That lead has increased from a 1 point in July to 4 points now.
Reuters/Ipsos stated the Ms Harris was picking up votes from women and Hispanic voters, a demographic Mr Trump has been trying to woo.
Mr Trump still leads among white voters and men, the research found.
RFK
Then there’s the RFK factor.
Formerly polling around 4 per cent, Robert F Kennedy Jr has now endorsed Mr Trump.
He’s urged that 4 per cent to vote for Mr Trump which, if they all did, could easily close any gap between the two frontrunners.
But Quinnipiac’s Mr Malloy said RFK might have only a moderate effect on the race.
“Independents, so critical to the outcome of the race, aren’t exactly swayed by him to change their views about Trump,” he said.
Ms Harris undoubtedly has moved the polls in her favour.
Mr Trump is now far less assured of victory.
The problem is, the same could be said for her chances.
Originally published as ‘Sizeable electoral win’: New US poll shocks
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