The already volatile situation in the Middle East could deteriorate further, and rapidly, Australians are being warned, with Israel set to retaliate over Iran’s October 1 attack and Hezbollah’s deadly drone strike on Sunday.

In the most recent fighting, five people were killed and 65 injured at the Al-Aqsa Hospital compound in Gaza, while 21 people died after an Israeli air strike hit an apartment building in the Aitou village of northern Lebanon.

Hezbollah said it had also launched a barrage of rockets at the north Israeli town of Safed.

Israel will take America’s opinion into consideration — but will act against an Iranian missile attack based on its own “national interests”, the prime minister’s office has confirmed.

“We listen to the opinions of the United States, but we will make our final decisions based on our national interest,” Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said in a statement.

“We will continue to mercilessly strike Hezbollah in all parts of Lebanon – including Beirut,” the Israeli prime minister said.

Warning for Australians in Israel

Late on Monday, the Australian government updated its travel advice for Israel and the Palestinian territories, warning Australians not to travel there, and on Tuesday Foreign Minister Penny Wong announced fresh financial sanctions and travel bans for five Iranians connected to Tehran’s missile program.

“The Australian government has serious concerns the security situation in Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories could deteriorate rapidly,” Ms Wong posted on X late on Monday.

What is Israel’s objective?

With the Israeli Defence Force (IDF) striking villages in Lebanon’s north and Bekaa Valley, as well as the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital in central Gaza, Middle East analyst Dr Rodger Shanahan warned “the things that would have constrained Israel in the past in terms of target selection probably don’t constrain it as much in the current round of fighting.”

Ruthie Blum, a former advisor to the Netanyahu government based in Tel Aviv, said that while the world might be concerned about a “wider war” in the Middle East, Israel had already been fighting such a war for an entire year, since the capture of 251 Israeli hostages by Hamas militants on October 7, 2023.

“We’ve been fighting on seven fronts,” she said, referencing the battles Israel has been facing against a range of groups including Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthi rebels in Yemen, and others.

“It’s a misnomer to call it escalation, we’ve been suffering since October 7," she said.

Dr Shanahan said Israel had been effective at militarily degrading its enemies, but its ultimate strategy looked unclear.

“They talk about destroying organisations, but that’s not a militarily achievable outcome. You can degrade them, but what next after you’ve degraded them? That’s the issue driving all of this.

“Nobody seems to know where it’s going because there’s no sense that Netanyahu knows where it’s going.”

When will Israel strike Iran?

Forces in the Middle East remain on high alert for Israel’s promised retaliation against Iran for the October 1 missile attacks, but the timing remains unknown.

“Israel said people will be surprised by its nature [the retaliation] and in order to maximise that surprise they give out as few indicators as possible,” Dr Shanahan said.

But what Israel does “will dictate Iran’s next moves,” he said.

Ms Blum said while she was not privy to government thinking, she anticipated Israel would move against Iran this year.

“We don’t have time to wait,” she said. “Some suggested Netanyahu was waiting on the outcome of the US presidential election. None of us believes that. That’s in three weeks, and in the Middle East, three weeks is an eternity.”

Hezbollah’s new drone threat to Israel

At the same time, Israel is dealing with the prospect of a new wave of strikes from Hezbollah drones, which can fly low and evade the “Iron Dome” defence system.

One of two drones fired from the sea carrying a payload of up to 40kg struck a northern Israeli military base on Sunday, killing four soldiers and injuring 61.

“This wasn’t a kind of fire-and-forget, there was a degree of planning in this one, given it hit the mess area during meal time,” Dr Shanahan said.

“I assume we’ll see more of this when Hezbollah has an opportunity.”

According to Israel’s Alma Research Centre, Hezbollah has around 2000 of the Mirsad-1 drones it used in Sunday’s attack, which can fly low and thus avoid detection, especially if launched at the same time as a barrage of missiles.

What is the US doing?

On Sunday, the US announced it was deploying a Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery to Israel, along with crew to operate the system, deepening its involvement in the conflict.

“This action underscores the United States’ iron-clad commitment to the defence of Israel, and to defend Americans in Israel, from any further ballistic missile attacks by Iran,” Pentagon Press Secretary Major General Pat Ryder said.

But according to a report in the Jerusalem Post, the US is also pressuring Israel to move from military to diplomatic efforts in its war against Hezbollah.