Shannon Deery: Without a stroke of political genius Jacinta Allan may not lead Labor to the 2026 election

The Victorian Labor brand is facing uncertain waters, can Jacinta Allan turn the ship around or will there be a change of leadership before the 2026 election?

Would Jacinta Allan survive a vote of no confidence if the matter were put to her party room?

In the fallout of the police chief commissioner crisis it is a question ministers, staffers and senior Labor figures are now very openly discussing.

A view has formed among some that Allan is now on borrowed time.

That without a stroke of political genius that she has not yet shown since she took the top job, she won’t lead Labor to the 2026 election.

That is not to say that change is either imminent or definite: it will take more than a disgruntled few to cause a leadership change.

Most want to see Allan turn the ship around and avoid the risk of political carnage that is inherent with any leadership change.

But what is clear is that, inside government, momentum against Allan has picked up exponentially after a disastrous start to the year.

Jacinta Allan and Police Minister Anthony Carbines address Shane Patton’s no-confidence motion. Picture: Luis Enrique Ascui

People are now openly discussing the pros and cons of changing leaders and policies before the election.

But why now?

The government’s response to the no-confidence motion in Shane Patton passed by members on Friday is just the latest issue.

The first and most pressing is polling. Labor has tanked so hard in the polls that if it were applied statewide at the next election the party would face political obliteration.

With a primary vote in the low 20s, they’re not just losing government, they’re losing a dozen or more seats.

The Werribee by-election result showed just how bad things are.

To hang on by a thread to a heartland seat, while the party’s primary vote took an absolute battering, showed how many have turned on Labor. After 10 years of being a powerhouse envied by interstate counterparts, the Victorian Labor brand is now mud.

Jacinta Allan said an "overwhelming" vote of no confidence in Shane Patton could not be ignored. Picture: NewsWire

It may have been heading in that direction under Daniel Andrews, but as current captain the blame lies with Allan.

The next issue is the Suburban Rail Loop. There are a growing number of MPs, including deputy premier Ben Carroll, who believe the $34.5bn price tag for the first stage cannot be justified given current economic conditions.

They fear it is hampering the government’s efforts to drive down debt and invest in health and education, as well as limiting the party’s reach in once safe but increasingly vulnerable seats in the north and west. The rebranding by Labor of the SRL as the nation’s largest housing project suggests efforts to address concerns about the timing of the project.

But it also seems to bell the cat that the project cannot be justified on its own merit alone.

“With a third of the alleged costs to come from value-capture, code for keeping it off-book, this house of economic trickery may crash down on election day,” one factional heavyweight said.

This all comes at the same time as MPs have been warned to brace for a horror May budget, and to seriously rein in expectations as far as their bidding for local community projects.

The message is clear: there is no money, don’t bother asking.

Jacinta Allan and deputy premier Ben Carroll giving a press conference in Werribee. Picture: Luis Enrique Ascuia

Thirdly, concerns have been raised about general government direction and strategy. That the Premier was all but missing in action Friday, Saturday and Sunday, amid the worsening Patton crisis, infuriated some MPs.

She didn’t appear at a press conference with Labor’s winning candidate in Werribee, John Lister, and was silent on Patton until 10pm Sunday night.

She did however attend a Cabinet retreat during which, sources say, very robust feedback was provided about how the government is travelling. If MPs are unhappy with Allan she is not clueless about it – they are voicing their concerns in a way not possible under her predecessor. Which is part of her appeal to so many of the team.

The trade-off has been a lack of discipline and control over the public narrative.

Jacinta Allen and Labor’s winning candidate in Werribee, John Lister. Picture: Jake Nowakowski

The decision to axe Patton appears a genuine attempt by Allan to respond to concerns of the police force and hit reset on a crime crisis.

In throwing Patton under the bus it can blame him for soaring crime and a historic lack of public confidence in Victoria Police. But it’s all smoke and mirrors.

Bail laws, as conceded already by Allan, are a huge reason crime has gone wild. Police stations are shut and vacancies are high, in part, because of fiscal constraints placed upon force command. As is the ongoing police pay dispute, without which Patton would almost certainly not have faced a no-confidence motion at all.

Allan knows that things for Labor could get worse if the government doesn’t listen and heed messages in the polls and from the Werribee by-election. After years of enjoying infrastructure votes thanks to its Big Buildathon, it’s ironic that a sinkhole last week opened up on one of the government’s key signature projects, the North East Link.

Especially at a time when Labor’s grip on power may be falling further down the hole.

Originally published as Shannon Deery: Without a stroke of political genius Jacinta Allan may not lead Labor to the 2026 election