How Liberals can finally knock off the Labor Party at 2026 state election

The Liberal Party has not been in power in Victoria for more than a decade. We look at what Brad Battin’s team needs to do in order to turn it around next year.

The Victorian Liberal Party has not been in power in Victoria for more than a decade. Can it turn it around next year? Shannon Deery, Matt Johnston and James Campbell analyse what Brad Battin’s team must do to finally knock off the Labor Party.

Opposition Leader Brad Battin will be hoping to lead his party to power next year. Picture: Diego Fedele

1 Stop suing each other and unite

There can be nothing more important than the Victorian Liberals getting on the same page. This is an Opposition facing its fourth consecutive electoral drubbing, unless it can get its act together and fast. How can a party at war with each other stand a hope of convincing the electorate it is ready to govern? The long-running war between John Pesutto and Moira Deeming is still playing out in the Supreme Court, with the party’s entire administrative committee dragged into a fresh legal challenge.

Former Opposition Leader John Pesutto has been in a long-running legal fight with Moira Deeming. Picture: Aaron Francis

At the same time, the party’s headquarters are working to settle an unfair dismissal claim mired in bullying allegations levelled at the party president and state director. There is always the threat of factional flare ups among a group of weary MPs who have spent more than a decade in Opposition. Whether voters see the dysfunction, legal battles, and ideological sniping or not, it keeps the party unable to focus on its main task. A focus on voters, not vendettas, is a must.

2 Start campaigning early (which requires policies to talk about)

In the hours after their 2022 defeat, senior Victorian Liberals swore that work would start immediately on winning in 2026. Fast forward almost three years and there has been little to no movement in the campaign planning. Instead, we’ve seen years of legal fights, public spats and internal feuding. There is no improved campaign infrastructure, a dearth of candidates on the ground ready to campaign, and no easily marketable policy structure – problems made worse by having a leader in Brad Battin who still needs to introduce himself to Victorians.

Brad Battin still needs to introduce himself to Victorians. Picture: Nadir Kinani

The party has an entrenched inability to engage with multicultural communities, middle Australia and millennials. It needs to be campaigning to those people now, as well as putting in the hard yards in Melbourne’s east and southeast where it could forge a road to victory. While the party is tempted by the west, the Werribee by-election showed that despite big swings against the government, the Liberals couldn’t compete with well entrenched margins in Labor’s heartland. Communities want to know they matter – not just during election time.

3 Attract the young vote

The Liberals have many problems, but the youth vote is a big one. Young Victorians have largely abandoned the party, seeing it as out of touch on issues that matter to them. To reverse that, the party must stop speaking at young voters, and start listening to them. A bold agenda focused on issues like housing affordability is key. The Liberals know this and have already committed to scrapping stamp duty for first-home buyers spending up to $1m.

A bold agenda focused on issues like housing affordability is key. Picture iStock

But they’ll need to do more, as the policy was taken to the 2022 election and appeared to have little impact. Leaving culture wars behind and engaging in modern policies with relatable candidates is also crucial. The party has a serious image problem with women and multicultural communities, and must turn that around. That means elevating more women and people from diverse backgrounds into winnable seats and listening to groups they’ve historically alienated. Young voters aren’t looking for ideology, they’re looking for solutions.

4 Present a Clear and Costed Alternative Agenda

Critiquing Labor isn’t enough; the Coalition needs to offer a compelling, costed, and credible alternative. That means real answers on health, housing, transport, and debt. Crucially, it must explain how it plans to deliver services better, manage the budget responsibly, and ease cost-of-living pressures. Key to this will be the Coalition’s industrial relations policy and how it plans to manage the public sector. The Coalition has vowed to improve services and bring the budget back into line. But how? How will it fix the budget but spend more to boost critical services?

Opposition treasury spokesman James Newbury and his party are vowing to improve services and bring the budget back into line. Picture: Jason Edwards

These are answers that need to be articulated. The Liberals should tailor their message to concerns about hospital wait times, cost of living, the economy, and offer policies that improve daily life. Key to this will be agreeing to and finalising the four to five key policy areas they plan to focus on and develop a couple of conservative leaning policies for those areas, and a couple for centre-moderate policies designed to bridge the voting gap with women under 40.

5 Work out a solid Plan B for the Suburban Rail Loop

The coalition may not like the project, but chances are the Suburban Rail Loop will have tunnel boring machines in the ground before the next state election. In which case, will they tell voters they’re going to switch off those machines and stop building something that’s created a giant hole in their backyard? Perhaps it would be a case of mimicking Ted Baillieu, who campaigned on myki and desalination plant disasters and in government reviewed contracts to try to streamline projects and minimise costs, without starting again. Having the focus on what you don’t want to build, instead of what you will build, would risk a voter backlash (just ask Peter Dutton).

Chances are the Suburban Rail Loop will have tunnel boring machines in the ground before the next state election.

6 Wait for Labor to fall apart

Oppositions don’t win elections, governments lose them. So the Coalition could simply sit back and wait for Labor to collapse under the weight of 12 years in government. Against a backdrop of a tired government there are years of cost blowouts, hospital crises, housing failures, and leadership change. Combine that with record debt, the collapsing road network, and the childcare crisis and voters could simply call time on the government. However, for that to happen, the Opposition has to look like a real, viable alternative. They don’t need to overreach, just stay united, look competent, and avoid own goals. By projecting steady hands and refusing to take the bait, they can contrast the Labor Party’s weariness with their own renewal.

Originally published as How Liberals can finally knock off the Labor Party at 2026 state election