Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ low-key federal budget possible calm before campaign spending storm

While Tasmania can bank on an unexpected $190m increase in GST payments next financial year, it was hard to find any other surprises in a no-frills federal budget, Duncan Abey writes

Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers waves after his fourth federal budget speech. (Photo by David GRAY / AFP)

While Tasmania can bank on an unexpected $190m increase in GST payments next financial year, it was hard to find any other surprises for the state in Tuesday night’s no-frills federal budget, which Treasurer Jim Chalmers cautiously titled “turning the corner, together.”

But with a federal election due in May, many Tasmanians may be wondering just how much cash will eventually be splashed across the state over coming weeks as Australia’s electoral cycle turns for home.

The GST windfall is undoubtedly a tidy penny for the state, and one that will be particularly appreciated by Tasmanian Treasurer Guy Barnett as he prepares to hand down a budget of his own at the end of May – although it remains to be seen whether the resulting fiscal wriggle room will offset Mr Barnett’s zeal for a public sector hiring freeze.

Deputy Premier Guy Barnett. Question time in the Tasmanian House of Assembly. Picture: Nikki Davis-Jones

In a cost of living budget aimed at helping Australians with everyday expenses including groceries, electricity, and medication, young Tasmanians were surely celebrating the government expanding eligibility criteria for the Help to Buy first homeowners scheme.

While Tuesday night’s spotlight was squarely on Dr Chalmers as he handed down a budget that promised a path back to economic prosperity, all eyes will soon turn to Prime Minister Anthony Albanese as the nation awaits his call on the next federal election.

From that moment onwards, the Tasmanian pre-election sweeteners apparently absent from the Treasurer’s budget may begin to reveal themselves, with the government bracing for tight contests against the Coalition in at least three state seats.

If Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s big-spending weekend visit to Tasmania was anything to go by, and the Coalition continues toting its giant cheque book around the state during the campaign, Dr Chalmers may well be right to have kept his powder dry head of do-or-die battles in Bass, Braddon, and the knife-edge Lyons.

Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers prepares to deliver his fourth federal budget at the Parliament House in Canberra on March 25, 2025. (Photo by David GRAY / AFP)

And for all the fanfare and public attention that Tuesday’s night spending blueprint for the 2025/26 financial year generated, the budget’s fate ultimately rests with the Australian electorate.

With many political pundits predicting a line-ball result on election night between the first-term Albanese government and the Dutton-led Coalition, the budget may well be Dr Chalmers’ last act as Treasurer, with the very real possibility of opposite number, Angus Taylor, handing down a Coalition mini-budget later this year.

Originally published as Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ low-key federal budget possible calm before campaign spending storm