Tasmanian winter forecast after driest few months of the year for some parts of the state
‘We need some rain’: It’s the first day of winter but this season might look a little different than previous years. What the BOM is keeping a close eye on in Tasmania:
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The Beedle family love a Tassie winter.
Simon Beedle and his family have been enjoying the distinct Tasmanian seasons since moving from Queensland two years ago.
“In Queensland you just have hot and really hot,” the Claremont dad said.
“We love the seasons and watching the leaves change and fall.”
On the last day of autumn 3-year-old Macie and Mr Beedle were busy building mountains out of the fallen leaves at parliament Lawns Hobart.
Bureau of Meteorology meteorologist Alex Melitsis said early figures suggest Tasmania has just had one of the driest autumns on record.
“Parts of the West and North-West have had their driest first four months of the year,” Mr Melitsis said.
“We need some rain.”
He said the climate modelling was unclear on the likelihood of reprieve from the dry conditions in Tasmania as the mainland looks set for some wetter conditions with the King’s Birthday long weekend weather bringing a few millimetres to the state.
“It’s looking like winter in general will be wetter than usual across the mainland but over South Eastern Australia and Tasmania there is really no strong signal at all.
“Our climate models are suggesting that it could be either drier than usual or wetter than usual — at this stage there is no clear signal.”
Average winter rainfall is around 400-1200 mm for Western Tasmania and Eastern Tasmania generally gets between 100- 400mm and up to 600mm in the North East, he said.
Mr Melitsis said the modelling signalled a high chance that this winter would be unusually warm, in the top 20 per cent of the climate record.
“Not only is it likely to be warm, but it’s likely to be particularly warm.”
He said the Bureau is keeping a close eye on the sea surface temperature on the East Coast, which is “very much above average” and has the potential to bring low systems that are characterised by strong winds, heavy rainfall, and rough seas.
On Sunday temperatures are expected to reach a maximum of 15 degrees, with light winds.
Monday has a maximum forecast of 16 and a very high chance of showers with up to 10mm of possible rainfall.
Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to reach a maximum temperature of 11 degrees.
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Originally published as Tasmanian winter forecast after driest few months of the year for some parts of the state
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