Tasmanian state election could be circuit breaker: Richard Herr

A fresh Tasmanian election would offer parties the chance to reset their priorities for the state, and adopt platforms that did not rely on winning majority government, a leading academic has said.

Premier Jeremy Rockliff. Picture: Nikki Davis-Jones

A fresh Tasmanian election would offer both major political parties the chance to reset their priorities for the state and adopt policy platforms that did not rely on winning majority government, a leading academic has said.

With Parliament set to return on Tuesday to pass emergency budget bills ahead of Premier Jeremy Rockliff’s planned visit to Government House, Associate Professor Richard Herr said a new poll remained the only credible way forward following last Friday’s no-confidence motion in the Liberal leader.

Mr Herr also predicted an extended period of post-election “horse-trading” should the House of Assembly again be returned lacking a clear majority, following the 2024 result in which the Liberal government could only claim 40 per cent of seats.

“I think there’s a real expectation that it’s going to be hard negotiating to form a government, which is why they want to pass a supply bill on Tuesday,” Mr Herr said.

“Nobody seems to have any confidence that anybody is going to get the tidal wave needed to produce a majority government.

“And so I think we can expect that the Parliament may take some time to reconvene which is why they need the supply bills passed.”

Tasmanian Labor leader Dean Winter. Picture: Linda Higginson

Mr Herr said that although a second House of Assembly poll in two years was not the only political scenario possible following Dean Winter’s successful parliamentary move against the Premier last week, it remained the only credible option for Tasmanian politics.

Suggestions that Mr Rockliff be replaced as Premier by a Liberal college — or of Mr Winter leading the state with crossbench and Greens support — were fanciful notions not based on reality, Mr Herr said.

“Anything you could construct would either be either an abomination in terms of the Westminster model, or would be just outright hypocrisy,” he said.

“Anyone who says Rockliff could stand aside and let somebody else take over, just so we can avoid an election … is assuming the budget and all the acts of government are the personal responsibility of the Premier.

“You can’t decapitate him as a person without decapitating the government.

“And if you go the other way and say perhaps Labor could cobble together something that looked like a government with the Greens and others … they would have to do it by disavowing all of their internal tensions, which you couldn’t reasonably expect them to do over nothing more than a silly attempt to avoid an election.

“So I don’t believe there’s any prudent option other than an election, because there isn’t any practical way of undoing the no-confidence motion, and the Liberals replacing their leader wouldn’t actually free them of responsibility for the decisions of this government.

“And in any Labor coalition with the Greens and other crossbenchers, where is the policy identity and consistency view that would be manageable over the next few years.”

Election analyst Richard Herr. (AAP Image/Rob Blakers)

Mr Herr said while Mr Rockliff deserved credit for taking on the challenge of minority government following last March’s election result, both Liberal and Labor needed to adjust their expectations – and policies – to recognise the reality of permanently diminished supporter bases.

Mr Herr said a potential silver lining to the looming snap poll was a re-evaluation from both parties about their real priorities for the state.

“Labor has had 11 years in opposition to find a compelling message, and they couldn’t do it at the last election,” he said.

“I don’t know that they’ve spent their time in opposition over the last 15 months rebuilding their brand, but it’s something they need to do in the election.

“And the Liberals are going to have the same problem if they want to get up from the current budget forecasts of years and years of deficit.

“So I think that instead of staying in the frying pan, the Government should just walk through the fire of an election, to give those who want to govern the state an opportunity to reset in a more sustainable way.”

Originally published as Tasmanian state election could be circuit breaker: Richard Herr