Tasmanian politics: Professor Richard Herr says a poll will be held before May 2024
As the Labor Party prepares to soon announce its 35 candidates in readiness for the next state election, a political analyst believes a poll will be held before May next year.
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As the Labor Party prepares to soon announce its 35 candidates in readiness for the next state election, a political analyst believes a poll will be held before May next year.
Professor Richard Herr says with the Liberal Party in minority government it will be difficult for Premier Jeremy Rockliff to continue to rely on two of his former backbenchers who quit to sit on the crossbench.
“I can’t see why Jeremy Rockliff wants to die by a thousand cuts and go through pain and heartache on every issue with the two crossbenchers,” Dr Herr said.
“Unless he can find an issue that bumps some positive energy back into his government he is still going to be limping on.
“He doesn’t seem to have regathered.”
One of the crossbenchers, John Tucker, said he too was hearing talk of an early election but he hoped the government would run its full term.
“Lara (Alexander) and I hope there isn’t an early election because we want to serve a full term and we want to see stable government, but it is up to the premier to decide,” Mr Tucker said.
Prof Herr said he could understand why Labor was on a war footing for an early poll.
“They can smell blood in the water and are expecting an early election,” he said.
“I think the government will not want to interfere with the budget cycle so it could be April so as not to impact the budget in May.”
Labor leader Rebecca White welcomed Elwick MLC Josh Willie and party secretary Stuart Benson both nominating for Clark.
She said the party next month would announce seven candidates in each of the five electorates.
“The Labor Party is getting ready,” she said.
“We understand this government is in terminal decline and is in a mess.
“Tasmanians have had enough of them and there’s a real ‘it’s time’ factor.
“We’re looking to win majority government, the Labor Party knows we have to win 18 seats across Tasmania in the expanded parliament.
“We need a government that focuses on the key issues of cost of living, health and housing because they are the things Tasmanians are focused on as well.”
Mr Willie said the government was falling apart and “had run out of ideas”.
“All governments have expiry dates. This government has fallen into minority, they’ve had a lot of people resign and they’re not focused on the issues Tasmanians care about,” he said.
But government minister Guy Barnett scotched talk of an early election.
“The Labor Party keep talking about early elections (but) what we’re focused on is doing what matters every single day, getting on with the job of delivering for Tasmanians, growing the economy, delivering better health services, building more homes,” Mr Barnett said.
“I mean they are so distracted and they are hopelessly negative and relentlessly negative.
“We want to get on with the job, stay positive and that’s what we’re doing.”
Mr Barnett accused Labor of being “hopelessly divided” with former leader David O’Byrne keen to return to the fold but forces within Labor “trying to stop him doing so”.
“We’re focused on delivering the important services that Tasmanians deserve.”
Prof Herr said it was not out of the question that the Liberals would be returned for a historic fourth term but he expected a big field of candidates, including from the Jacqui Lambie Network and several independents.
Election analyst Kevin Bonham said Labor may have been better off if Mr Willie had run in Clark at the last state election.
“The last state election in Clark was an absolute disaster for Labor,” Dr Bonham said.
“It will be a challenge for them to elect three members in Clark, they’d need to rebuild a lot.”
A former Labor stronghold, it was reduced to just one member in Clark in 2021.
The next state election is not due until 2025 and will be for an expanded 35-seat House of Assembly.
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Originally published as Tasmanian politics: Professor Richard Herr says a poll will be held before May 2024
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