Labor’s gamble backfires, return to hung parliament likely
It is a likely return to a hung parliament for Tasmania, as the first day of vote counting concluded in the 2025 State Election. Where to next for the state.
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Tasmania’s voters have returned a verdict similar to the one they handed down in last year’s state election, with neither of the major parties achieving a clear majority or having an easy path to achieving one on the floor of the House of Assembly.
The swing of three per cent against the Labor opposition and in favour of the government has delivered what commentators noted was Labor’s lowest primary vote at a state election in the state’s electoral history as the protest vote lodged with the Lambie Network at the 2024 poll drifted back toward the Liberals.
The Liberals polled 40 per cent of first-preference votes, Labor 26 per cent, the Greens 14 per cent and independents 15 per cent.
The election that nobody wanted returned a result that many predicted.
Recap of how election day unfolded here.
Neither major party will command a majority of more than 18 votes on the floor of the House.
The result does not look much changed from the fragile parliament cut short by a Labor no-confidence motion.
The Liberals looked on track to win at least 14 seats in the 35-seat House of Assembly, four in Braddon, three each in Bass and Lyons, and two in Clark and Franklin and Labor heading towards ten; two in each electorate and the Greens five, with four independents likely.
The final outcome in each seats will not be known until the deadline for postal votes and the distribution of preferences under the Hare-Clark system.
But with a parliament composed mostly of left-leaning MPs it is unclear how the Liberals will achieve a majority — and hold onto power.
In his speech on Saturday night, Premier Jeremy Rockliff signalled his intention to form government — and flagged a willingness to work with the crossbench.
Liberal insiders flagged on election night that a result of 15 seats or more would be considered a good result.
“There is some way to go to the conclusion of the count and the return of the writs, but I intend to visit the Governor and ask her to recommission my government so we can get on the job for Tasmania,” Mr Rockliff said.
“Each and every one of us who have been elected cannot expect to get 100 per cent of everything we want, we must work together, respect the will of the people, be mature, be pragmatic, but most of all, work in the best interest of all Tasmanians.”
Without guarantees of support from up to four non-Liberal MPs, any government Mr Rockliff forms will again be vulnerable to no-confidence motions from across the chamber.
Despite the swing against this party, Labor leader Dean Winter did not rule out the possibility that Labor might attempt to form government in his speech to the tally room. He has previously ruled out deals with the Greens.
He made reference to the task facing “whoever forms government”.
“Tonight, the Tasmanian people have spoken, and they have delivered another hung parliament, and with it a resounding message that they want their politicians to work together more collaboratively.
“They are not happy with politics as usual, and they want to see things done differently, and the premier’s speech earlier tonight was a show of the same approach that he took on election night some 16 months ago – and we know that has not worked.
“That’s not what Tasmanians have just voted for.
“Tasmanians have voted for a parliament that represents a diverse range of views, one that appears highly likely to be progressive in majority.”
After a strong campaign, two factors played out strongly in the Liberal’s favour.
The availability and preselection of former Federal members Bridget Archer and Gavin Pearce boosted the result in the vital seats of Bass and Braddon.
And the party reaped the gains from the implosion of the Jacqui Lambie Network, and the drift back of much of the protest vote in Bass, Braddon and Lyons where the JLN returned members in lodged in 2024.
As the count drew on, it became clear several high-profile candidates had not achieved the results they had hoped for,
High-profile Liberal minister Madeleine Ogilvie appears on track to lose her seat in Clark after a strong showing by Marcus Vermey and Labor newcomers Jess Munday in Franklin and Luke Martin in Clark appear to have fallen well short.
It was a good night for independents: Craig Garland in Braddon, Kristie Johnston in Clark and David O’Byrne in Franklin were all set to be returned — all with healthy swings in their favour — and will be joined on the crossbenches by Peter George in Franklin.
But former Lambie Network MPs Andrew Jenner, Rebekah Pentland and Miriam Beswick have failed in their bids for re-election and a challenge in Clark by former Liberal Attorney-General Elise Archer also went nowhere close.
The Nationals managed just 1.6 per cent of the statewide vote. A strong showing by Shooters, Fishers and Farmers candidate Carlo di Falco in Lyons was less expected.
The Greens managed to defend all five seats won at the 2024 poll.
Party leader Rosalie Woodruff suffered a relatively minor swing of four per cent in her personal vote despite Peter George taking 16.3 per cent of first preference votes in the electorate.
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