Federal Labor plots how to secure marginal seat of Lyons held by Brian Mitchell
Brian Mitchell has clung onto his federal seat of Lyons at the last election, but could he be ousted for former Tasmanian Labor leader Rebecca White? What the experts predict.
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Former Tasmanian Labor leader Rebecca White is being courted by Canberra powerbrokers to run in the federal seat of Lyons.
The possibility of Ms White moving to the federal arena was first raised both during and after the March state election where Labor failed for the third time to win government.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is believed to be a supporter of Ms White, who quit as leader after the election loss.
The federal seat of Lyons is one of the most marginal in Australia.
Brian Mitchell, who first won the seat in 2016 when he defeated Liberal Eric Hutchinson, narrowly retained it in 2022 with a nail-biting wait for the final result.
Asked about Ms White, he said: ‘no comment”.
Labor sources say there is no way Ms White would want to stand if Mr Mitchell wants to seek a fourth term.
“Rebecca is a person of the utmost integrity and she would not doing anything without Brian’s support,” one source said.
“She is very well regarded by everyone and has been a great representative for Lyons.”
Ms White told the Mercury on Friday: “All I can say is that I’m focussed on serving the people of Lyons as I’ve proudly done for 14 years.”
At the March state election she received a massive 15,607 first preference votes, ahead of Liberal MP Guy Barnett with 8252 votes.
Political analyst Professor Richard Herr said there was no doubt Ms White would be a “strong candidate” but he believed it was for Mr Mitchell to decide his future.
“As a past leader she would be a strong candidate and she performed very well personally,” he said.
“But my past research showed that incumbency matters more in Lyons than other electorates so if Brian was persuaded to leave against his will that would hurt Rebecca’s chances.
“The ball is very much in Brian’s court in this instance.”
While the Liberal Party has endorsed candidates in all five electorates, and also it Senate team, Labor has so far not announced any candidates.
Professor Herr said candidates without a high profile needed time to become well known with voters.
It is likely that Richard Dowling, a former Tasmanian Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief economist and adviser to former Premier Lara Giddings will be on Labor’s Senate ticket for the 2025 election.
Mr Dowling, who left social media giant Meta and returned to Hobart in August to work for Labor leader Dean Winter could run on the ticket in the coveted number two spot sparking anger and disbelief from unions.
“He is bright but despised by many unions,” one source said.
Labor senator Carol Brown, who would be number one on the ticket said: “It is my intention to re-nominate through the party processes at the appropriate time.”
Senator Catryna Bilyk, who had the number two spot at the last senate election, said she would make an announcement ‘when I am ready” about whether she intended to stand.
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Originally published as Federal Labor plots how to secure marginal seat of Lyons held by Brian Mitchell
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